Global warming - facing an unpopular truth

The second Festival of Dangerous Ideas was held at the Sydney Opera House over the October 2010 long weekend featuring an array of topics in 24 separate panel debates and individual presentations. From a climate change perspective, the message remained clear with a projected grim outlook for the planet from 2020 onwards. Of note, the session titled 'We are all Climate Change Deniers' presented by Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethcis at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics demonstrated the stark reality that global warming is occuring and is on a trajectory for a major impact within this century. Even the 2 degree C target would still result in Artic summer ice, Himalayan Tibetan glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet melting. The evidence now shows a temperature rise of between 2 and 4 degrees C which will result in the loss of Amazon rainforest (one of the World's main oxygen generators) and the West Antartic ice sheet as well as many other effects. Yet despite the evidence, there remains vocal and powerful interests that seek to deny there is any risk as well as nullify any debate.

Life beyond in the stars?

The recent pronuncement that Gliese 581g, a planet orbiting the red dwarf star Gliese 581 may be suitable for life should not come as any surprise. Located approximately 20.5 light years away from Earth in the constellation of Libra, the planet is located in the middle of the "Goldilocks" zone, or what is defined as a habitable part of space near its parent star. The existence of liquid water is considered a strong possibility and this condition is generally considered a precursor for life. The planet was discovered by the Lick-Carnegie Exoplanet Survey following a period of over ten years of observations. Gliese 581g is believed to be the first Goldilocks planet ever found being the most earth-like planet with the potential for harboring life. The search for life in the universe continues both through optical astronomy and radio astronomy (the SETI program). The question remains, if life is found, what would the human race do?

Ozone layer recovering following CFC reduction

Some positive news for the environment comes with confirmation from the UN Environment Program (UNEP) that the ozone level in the Earth's upper atmosphere is recovering following the removal of harmful ozone depleting substances from use in human activities.

As UNEP advises "..The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer was adopted in 1987 to protect global ozone and, consequently, protect life from increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation at Earth’s surface. Chlorine- and bromine-containing substances that are controlled by the Montreal Protocol are known as ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed in polar regions (for example, the “ozone hole” above Antarctica) and in middle latitudes. The severe depletion of stratospheric ozone observed in the Antarctic has increased UV at the surface and affected climate at southern high latitudes..'.

This is a long overdue bit of good news and demonstrates the World's capacity for taking the necessary steps when a clear course of action was needed.

Loss of carbon absorption another impact of drought

The latest issue of Science carries some concerning research showing a reduction in the level of trees/plants to provide carbon sinks for the planet. Drought and changed rainfall patterns have apparently led to this reduction of plant coverage but this in turn places an urgent emphasis on taking steps to replace plant loss as well as develop other alternative methods to capture carbon emissions.

Science 20 August 2010:

Vol. 329. no. 5994, pp. 940 - 943
DOI: 10.1126/science.1192666

Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009
Maosheng Zhao* and Steven W. Running

Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.

Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, the University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA.

Mission Ultra Complex: The War in Afghanistan

Australia's involvement in Afghanistan is crystalised in Chris Master's carefully constructed two part documentary 'A Careful War' for the 4 Corners program of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Speaking at the Lowy Institute for International Policy on 30 July 2010, Masters commented that no single media account of this conflict is accurate - the reality of the situation in Afghanistan is rather that there are hundreds of many individual different conflicts being fought throughout cities, towns and villages of that country. Masters also highlighted a weakness of understanding by the Australian public of the 'battle space' being occupied by Australian soldiers serving in that theatre of operations. More than any previous military commitment, Australian soldiers are required to be part fighter, diplomat, anthropologist and social worker - a complex set of skills to utilise simultaneously while still within a combat environment. The ability to continue such an intense and difficult military commitment for several more years and outlast the Taliban will test the resolve of the western powers as well as the Afghan National Army to fill the void once troop withdrawals occur.

Geoengineering to avoid climate change - science fiction or fantasy?

With ongoing debate on the ramifications of climate change on the planet or, in some quarters, continuing doubt as to the validity of the science itself, one aspect which has escaped wider consideration are some of the proposed solutions. While many focus on alternative energy production methods or ways to avoid carbon emissions, a few actually propose further intervention in the earth's climate. One of these is geoengineering or in simple terms using engineering solutions to affect climate change. In science fiction, this is often referred to as terra forming but whether it is science or science fiction, such a direction is fraught with high level risk particularly considering the basis for such proposals are untested and often commercial or 'market-based' approaches seeking a quick fix. The most unusual is injecting sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere to counteract carbon emissions. How sensible is such a proposal? Would this approach only add one more problem to the already existing ones?