New Year Challenges for 2010

With the new year about to commence, its worth quickly reflecting on the current state of play which will continue into the next year and maintain a powerful influence:

• The international economy is still recovering and quite patchy with some strong local economies including two giants in the developing world. Many others remain flat or with only marginal increases in growth.
• The conflict with terrorism continues as does the war in Afghanistan. The possible number of failed lawless states remains as it was in 2009. Security will remain a critical feature for the year.
• The UN Climate Change Conference (COP 15) at Copenhagen in December 2009 did not produce an effective plan for reducing carbon emissions as well as other related global warming factors.
• Technology convergence which is a mixed blessing will continue this year. This means both instantaneous communication but also social dislocation as the new technology causes both.   

In summary then, the direction of 2010 is already partially set by the events of 2009 some of which find their own basis from earlier years. Australia can ride out some but not all of these challenges. It will be a testing year.

COP 15 Agreement

The summary of resolutions from COP 15 shows in effect only a cursory series of agreements and not sufficient to combat carbon emissions in the degree necessary.  Further negotiations will occur in the next year so it is hoped that these may produce more tangible results.

GLOBAL WARMING ‘‘should be (kept) below two degrees Celsius’’, says the draft. But it does not identify a year by which carbon emissions should peak, a position resisted by emerging giants. Countries are asked to spell out by February 1 next year their pledges for curbing carbon emissions by 2020. The deal does not spell out penalties for any country that fails to meet its promise.

FUNDS: Rich countries are pledging $US10 billion in the three years from 2010-2012 to help poor countries tackle climate change. They also set the goal of ‘‘mobilising jointly’’ $US100 billion a year by 2020, drawn from ‘‘a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance.’’

VERIFICATION: The pledges of rich countries will come ‘‘under rigorous, robust and transparent’’ scrutiny under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Developing countries will submit national reports on their emissions pledges under a method ‘‘that will ensure that national sovereignty is respected.’’ Pledges on mitigation measures that require international support will be recorded in a registry.

MID-CENTURY TARGETS: The text does not endorse the goal of halving the global output of carbon pollution by mid-century, an objective many rich countries endorse. Emerging giants mainly China and India have said they are unwilling to back such a target.

LEGALLY-BINDING TREATY: There is no deadline for transforming the objectives outlined in the accord into a legally-binding treaty. It had been widely expected that the text would call for a treaty to be finalised before the end of 2010.

Climate Change - an agreement too far?

As COP 15 concludes, the rest of the World will be left wondering exactly what has been achieved at a conference which has been marked by hostility and division notwithstanding the expected grandstanding and neogiating stances taken by delegates, environment ministers and Heads of State. The deal going forward for the consideration of the 190 countries attending the Climate Change Conference is to try to limit global warming to 2 degrees C but contains no targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions and is not a binding deal. The alternative to this very mild platform was to have the conference collapse into chaos yet with indications that the global environment is going to heat by 3 degrees C , this approach will be too little to effectively mitigate against changes already underway. On the basis that some agreement is better than no agreement at all COP15, has been successful in some key measures of reaching an understanding that action is needed. The devil, as always, is in the detail and key aspects such as the level of $ in the climate change fund, verification of reduction in emissions and a binding agreement remain glaring missing items.

COP 15 Negotiations - Initial Rounds

The 15th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) is underway at the Bella Centre in Copenhagen running from the 7th to the 18th of December, 2009.

With fierce debate in progress at COP 15, its opportune to reflect that more than half of global carbon pollution comes from developing countries rather than the developed part of the world and hence both segments must contribute in real terms to efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change. Developing countries led by emerging giants China, India and Brazil are the most significant CO2 emitters, and the proportion of carbon pollution from these sources is set to rise as their high-population economies grow.

Not surprisingly, the 42-member Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes the vocal island nation of Tuvalu, and the bloc of mainly African Least Developed Countries, have rejected the widely held goal of keeping global temperatures from rising more than 2.0 degrees Celsius stating that this target is manifestly inadequate.

In their estimation only a cap of 1.5 C compared to pre-industrial times would give their nations a chance of fighting off rising seas or crippling drought. The reality is their position is fairly sound and without ambitious targets both with agreement and adherence, the opportunity for averting a major shift in climate will be lost.

When greed is not good

Documentary film maker Michael Moore has focussed on the capitalist system itself in his latest film offering 'Capitalism a love story'. In his film Moore explores some of the more unsavoury aspects of capitalism and focusses strongly on the financial markets, merchant banks and Wall Street in general. As with all Michael Moore films, he hides no punches and preaches his sermons from the front lobbies of many of the giants of American corporates. Nonetheless as with all Moore films he brings to life the exact human toll and presents the human face in the community often lost when discussing market performance, profit and the imaginery gains and losses in the synthetic securities markets. Could anyone imagine a corporate employer taking out a life insurance policy on an employee so the company benefits if the employee dies but the surviving family members do not?

Scanning the Heavens

The recent exercise in December 2008 by the US Air Force to assess the ability to cope with a collision with a Near Earth Object again highlighted how limited is the Earth's capability to detect or prevent such an event taking place. Recently however a Near Earth Object did indeed come into contact with the Earth in October 2008. Designated 2008 TC3 this car sized object exploded over the Sudan but was only spotted by a telescope (the Catalina Sky Survey) with 20 hours notice and at a distance of 500,000 kilometres from our planet. Although the likelihood of a catastrophic asteroid collision is extremely rare, the potential for a strike from a smaller but still destructive near earth body has much greater plausibility.

This situation again raises the need for a greater overall surveillance of the space around Earth and in relation to the Earth's orbit around the Sun. The proposal to increase surveillance through the Panoramic Survey telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) as well as the proposed Large Synoptic Survey Telescope in Chile (providing the project is completed by 2015) will complement the existing monitoring programs. The next question is what action to take if a large body is located on a trajectory to Earth.

Geothermal energy - a price too high to pay?

From the New York Times, 10 September 2009

The question of harnessing the earth's own capacity for energy generation should be measured against possible other effects and risks as the article below outlines.

LANDAU IN DER PFALZ, Germany — Government officials here are reviewing the safety of a geothermal energy project that scientists say set off an earthquake in mid-August, shaking buildings and frightening many residents of this small city. The geothermal plant, built by Geox, a German energy company, extracts heat by drilling deep into the earth. Advocates of the method say that it could greatly reduce the world’s dependence on fossil fuels by providing a vast supply of renewable energy.


But in recent months, two similar projects have stirred concerns about their safety and their propensity to cause earthquakes. In the United States, the Energy Department is scrutinizing a project in Northern California run by AltaRock Energy to determine if it is safe. (The project was shut down by the company last month because of crippling technical problems.) Another project, in Basel, Switzerland was shut down after it generated earthquakes in 2006 and 2007 and is awaiting the decision of a panel of experts about whether it can resume.

The Landau project will be allowed to continue operating while the review panel, which held its first meeting last Friday, deliberates. Geox officials initially denied any responsibility for the temblor and continue to dispute the government’s data linking the project to the quake. The panel will, among other things, have to sort through the conflicting data presented by the company and government scientists.

Like other earthquakes that have been attributed to geothermal plants, the Landau temblor was sudden and brief and was accompanied by a sound that in some cases has been likened to a sonic boom. There were no injuries and there was no known structural damage to buildings in the city. But the 2.7 magnitude quake has stoked fears and set off debate in the state Parliament, which subsidized the construction of the plant, about the method’s safety.

In interviews last week, Geox officials conceded that the plant had set off tiny earthquakes and said that they were not certain what set off the Aug. 15 temblor. But consultants for the company dispute the data cited by government scientists to back up their conclusion that the project caused the earthquake: their own data, they said, proves that the quake originated more than two miles from the site of the plant and six miles below the earth’s surface. Those figures would essentially rule out a connection with the plant.

The Landau plant, which cost $30 million, went into operation in 2007 and produces electricity for 6,000 homes by drawing heat from beneath the bedrock, nearly two miles beneath the earth’s surface. Geox said a coal-burning plant producing the same electricity would emit 30,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually.
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What price for justice? Scotland plumbs the dustbin over Lockerbie

From the Stratfor Intelligence newsletter: On Aug. 24, 2009 Scottish Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill addressed a special session of the Scottish Parliament. The session was called so that MacAskill could explain why he had decided to release Abdel Basset Ali al-Megrahi, the former Libyan intelligence officer convicted of terrorism charges in connection with the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103, and who had been expected to spend the rest of his life in prison. MacAskill said he granted al-Megrahi a compassionate release because al-Megrahi suffers from terminal prostate cancer and is expected to live only a few months. The Aug. 20 release of al-Megrahi ignited outrage in both the United Kingdom and the United States and FBI Director Robert Mueller released to the press contents of an uncharacteristically blunt and critical letter he had written to MacAskill in which Mueller characterized al-Megrahi’s release as inexplicable and “detrimental to the cause of justice.” Mueller told MacAskill in the letter that the release “makes a mockery of the rule of law.”

Al-Megrahi received a hero’s welcome upon his arrival in Tripoli, Libya with global broadcast footage of him being welcomed and embraced by Libyan leader Moammar Gadaffi (pictured left above ).

The Scottish Government should never have released this intelligence agent regardless of the compassionate grounds stated relating to a terminal health diagnosis or the concern about martydom. The total loss of life involved from the terrorism act was 243 passengers, 16 flight crew from the aircraft and 11 people on the ground in the small town of Lockerbie, Scotland (who were killed by parts of the falling aircraft). From the forensic investigation it was found that a number of people had survived the initial breakup of the aircraft in flight until impact on the ground below. Libya continues to deny responsibility for the action although its agent was convicted and the country itself paid compensation to the families of those affected.

Chocolate's magic properties...

According to news reports from the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm
" Heart attack survivors who eat chocolate two or more times per week cut their risk of dying from heart disease about three fold compared to those who never touch the stuff, scientists have reported. Smaller quantities confer less protection, but are still better than none, according to the study, which appears in the September issue of the Journal of Internal Medicine. Earlier research had established a strong link between cocoa-based confections and lowered blood pressure or improvement in blood flow. It had also shown that chocolate cuts the rate of heart-related mortality in healthy older men, along with post-menopausal women".

Apparently this new study, led by Imre Janszky (Karolinska Institute) is the first to demonstrate that consuming chocolate can help ward off mortality if one has suffered a heart attack.

Really?

Who's Your Momma? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues on in Iran

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (pictured at left, the short man) was sworn-in as Iranian president this week with the continuing cloud of the disputed elections still overshadowing his alleged election. Against the backdrop of a divided clerical establishment in Iran, widespread dissatisfaction in the Iranian population and powerful figures in Iran's political elite challenging his position (particularly former presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Khatami and former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi), Ahmadinejad continues on.The question which arises is how long can Iran continue with the policies of the current president which are more provocative than constructive.

With a poor economic outlook, a suspect nuclear weapons policy and a repressive regime which discourages debate, Iran remains a disadvantaged nation and almost a pariah internationally. Iranian politics is tough and full of complexity with a myriad of interlocking bodies, interests (both religious and secular) and key figures yet increasingly most of these groups are finding common ground in their mutual concern with and distrust of, the Iranian president.

Online community supported data sources - How reliable is Wikipedia?

Recent research reported by New Scientist (25 July 2009) has commented on the wide variability of health information on the internet and the influence of the all pervasive Wikipedia. This is no surprise as a significant volume of websites providing health information are either commercial interests, copied articles from other unchecked sources, heresay or outright quackery. Of interest is the high ranking of Wikipedia in search engine queries whereby the website appears in the top 10 results for more than 70% of medical qeries in four different search engines.

How reliable is Wikipedia? Universities have regularly warned tertiary-level students not to rely on Wikipedia as a source for their assignments. However US healthcare consultancy, Manhattan Research, has reported that 50% of doctors in its research had turned to Wikipedia for information. Of note, New Scientist quotes several studies which have examined information on surgery, drugs and other health information and found the online resource to be entirely free of factual and free of error. The US National Institutes of Health hosted an event on 16 July 2009 with the aim of training health professionals how to edit Wikipedia's health pages.

Wikipedia has considerable value as a layman's tool and for providing an overview of health information. For the health professional the key data sources though will remain ones such as Medline, PubMed, BMJ, the New England Journal of Medicine, the Cochrane Collaboration and other peer reviewed journals.

Update on H1N1

The recent information on the spread of swine flu indicates that the new virus is dominating over the existing main flu virus H3N2. More than 98% of the flu cases genotyped in the US during June 2009 were swine flu and a similar statistic exists for the state of Victoria in Australia where 99% of all flu cases which were genotyped were H1N1. A similar results exists for Argentina and Chile where over 90% of cases of flu were found to be swine flu. There are also indications that Tamiflu resistant swine flu has already evolved although at this stage, the number of cases is very small.

Forty years on... the Earth from afar

July 21, 2009 marks the 40th anniversary of the lunar landing of Apollo 11 with the first human beings to walk on Earth's nearest natural satellite. Neil Alden Armstrong (Commander), Edward Eugene Aldrin, Jr (lunar module pilot) landed in the lunar module while Michael Collins (command module pilot) remained in orbit in the Command Module. Many of the photographic images from that first landing have now become historical and iconic in their own right, none less than "Earthrise" (above) which shows the distant little blue planet which is home as seen from the moon.

As the planet now confronts the challenges of the environment, climate change and declining ecosystems, the image taken from Apollo 11 and the realisation of the fragility and smallness of the Planet Earth which the astronauts felt at the time, appears all the more prescient.

Climate Change and Sea levels - rising how far?

New Scientist (July 2009) has outlined various new estimates concerning sea levels rising at a rate and speed greater than the forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report. The IPCC had forecast a sea level rise of between 19 and 59 centimetres by 2100 but the report did exclude any rapid dynamic changes in ice flow in future years. The consensus now is that the IPCC estimates were far too optimistic. By far the most immediate contributor to sea level changes is the melting of glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica, Alaska to the Himalayas. Of particular note, is the number of sources for rising sea levels which demonstrate that warmer temperatures have different impacts not just the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The second observation is the degree to which ocean levels have already been rising for several decades.

New modelling indicates that the sea will in fact rise by 80 centimetres by 2100 and will continue rising beyond that date. For many parts of the world at zero elevation from sea level such as most Pacific Island groups, Bangladesh, Holland and many coastal strips in larger continents, the impact will be felt within this century. Sea levels will render heavily populated coastal land strips as unmanageable and unliveable. That sea levels will rise is an inescapable fact even with a reduction in greehouse gas emissions although the rate and degree can be influenced by CO2 reduction.

Planning for mass population relocation may be an unpalatable but essential reality of existence on planet Earth. Are Governments up to this challenge?

Bubble and Squeak - Methane a new energy source?

With the constant pressure to find alternative energy sources to reduce reliance on environmentally damaging coal fired generators and other fossil fuels, attention has turned to the high concentrations of methane which are found in various countries. In particular methane clathrate has become a favoured possible alternative energy source. Methane clathrate consists of molecules of methane trapped within ice crystals. With an appearance similar to dirty ice and a sorbet-like consistency, the application of heat rapidly ignites methane clathrates which omit about half as much carbon dioxide as burning coal.

Large deposits of methane clathrates can be found throughout the world in Central America, Japan, India, Alaska and Siberia both in permafrost and under the Ocean. The technology for extracting this energy source is still experimental and with methane clathrates lodged in fragile ice crystals, the safety and economic viability is in question. Also the methane molecule is twenty times as powerful as CO2 in warming the air. With rising sea temperatures, it would take little to release ocean clathrate reserves into the atmosphere.

Getting onto Carbon Emissions - the United States

The United States House of Representatives passed legislation on Friday last week intended to address global warming and transform the way the US produces and uses energy. It's the first time that either House of the US Congress had approved a bill meant to curb the heat-trapping gases which have been linked to climate change by a plethora of scientists and institutions worldwide. As the New York Times reports, the legislation could lead to profound changes in many sectors of the economy, including electric power generation, agriculture, manufacturing and construction.

Of note, the bill passed by a vote of 219 to 212, with 44 Democrats voting against it, and only eight Republicans voting for the bill. It remains concerning that the margin of the vote in favour was so small on such a critical issue. Nonetheless it will assist the United States when international negotiations on a new climate change treaty begin at the end of this year in Copenhagen.

The critical feature of the legislation is a cap-and-trade system which sets a limit on overall emissions of heat-trapping gases and allows utilities, manufacturers and other emitters to trade pollution permits, or allowances, among themselves. The cap would grow tighter over the years, pushing up the price of emissions and presumably driving industry to find cleaner ways of making energy. This is a standard approach in carbon emission trading schemes although it is often a contentious method if the timeline for emission reduction is too long.

As difficult as House passage proved, as the New York Times comments, it's just the beginning of the energy and climate debate in Congress. The issue now moves to the Senate, where political divisions and regional differences are even more stark.

The legislation is a patchwork of compromises and does fall far short of what many European governments and environmentalists have said is needed is essential to avert the worst effects of global warming which is steadily bearing down on the planet. While some environmentalists enthusiastically supported the legislation, others, including Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, opposed it. The US response is indeed weaker than the direction taken by the European Union. The bill has a number of key components nonetheless-

• A goal of reducing greenhouse gases in the United States to 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, and 83 percent by midcentury.


• Sets a national standard of 20 percent for the production of renewable electricity by 2020, although a third of that could be met with efficiency measures rather than renewable energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal power.


• Devotes billions of dollars to new energy projects and subsidies for low-carbon agricultural practices, research on cleaner coal and electric vehicle development.

Overall however this is a good step forward by the United States and one which will enable greater leverage for American negotiators in Copenhagen. It also sends a message to China, India and Russia that the US is finally moving on this issue which should provide a greater incentive for those countries not to delay taking action as well.

How long will it last?

The time taken for objects to dissolve at Sea -

Paper...2 to 5 months; Milk carton...5 years; Cigarette butt... 10 to 12 years; Plastic Bag...10 to 20 years; Disposable Nappy...75 years; Tin can...100 years; Styrfoam...unknown/unlimited; Plastic drink bottle...450 years (est); Nylon fishing line... 600 years (est); Glass bottle... unknown/unlimited.

These are frightening statistics when seen in the context of the volume of refuse being discharged into the ocean.

The Ocean as a floating rubbish dump

Ecology Today has drawn attention to the huge plastic waste dump which has grown and expanded in the Northern Pacific Ocean measuring twice the size of the continental United States. It stretches from around 500 nautical miles off the coast of California all the way to Japan to a depth of 10 metres below the surface of the sea.

Sea currents transport the waste into ocean “dead zones”, large areas of water that are slow moving circular currents which trap debris into one large constantly moving mass of plastic. This mass of plastic is slowly being broken down into a plastic dust that marine wildlife mistake for food with the result that many species in the food chain from fish through to ocean birds are being affected. The UN Environmental Program estimates that over a million seabirds, as well as more than 100 thousand marine mammals, die every year from ingesting plastic debris.

Ecology Today reports that the area is known as the Northern Pacific Gyre, one of five gyres in the world’s oceans. These gyres are areas of sea where water circulates clockwise in a very slow spiral. As winds are light the currents tend to force any floating material into the low energy centre of the gyre thus everything afloat becomes trapped in these “dead zones”.

Besides being a danger in itself, these vast areas of plastic pollution act as chemical sponge attracting other damaging pollutants, such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs), hydrocarbons and pesticides such as DDT that have leached or been released into the oceans from runoff or drainage. While this pollution contains huge amounts of plastic waste not all of it is floating on the surface as wave action and the heat of the sun degrades the plastic into smaller particles.

The need for action to reduce plastic contamination could not be greater given the scale of the existing environmental degradation.

When is a vote worth more than one? Update

News this week that Iran's most powerful oversight council has announced on Monday that the number of votes recorded in 50 cities exceeded the number of eligible voters there by three million has further tarnished the 2009 presidential election. This controversy has set off a sustained challenge to Iran’s leadership for the first time in 30 years. The current Government has claimed the voting discrepancy has not affected the overall result however it would be hard for Iranian voters to have any confidence that the electoral system has been fair and truly reflected voter intent. Crackdowns by police and militia are unlikely to change perceptions either within or outside of Iran concerning the invalid nature of the presidential poll. It remains to be seen how far either side of the debate will venture however Iran's security structure is formidable and has already demonstrated the willingness to use lethal force against its own citizens.

Iran - A desire for change

The recent Iranian presidential elections have drawn attention to an increasing desire from much of the population for a change in direction from that country's top leadership. The election held on June 13, 2009, saw Mir Hussein Moussavi defeated by incumbent President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (pictured at left) in a disputed result. Mr. Moussavi was allegedly defeated by 63 percent to 34 percent of the popular vote. The New York Times reported this week that Mr. Moussavi, thousands of demonstrators who represent a cross section of Iranian society and part of the clerical establishment have called the official results a fraud. Mr. Moussavi, is a former prime minister with a reputation for honesty and competence and is very much an insider in Iranian ruling circles.

His personal history includes being a leading figure in the Revolution which overthrew the former Shah of Iran and he was close to Ayatollah Khomeini. His credentials therefore are beyond question in Iran which makes his stand all the more poignant. Notably during the final weeks of the electioneering, Mr. Moussavi's campaign had gained enormous energy with huge rallies in the streets of Tehran both day and night which have now been followed by enormous rallies and public support (pictured right) following the election defeat.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in comparison has become an unpopular figure and is often perceived as the face of radicalism and repression in a country where people would much prefer not to been seen as a pariah in international circles. Iran has a very youthful population and modern technology has opened up communication opportunities which the Iranian Government has had difficulty in shutting down or censoring.

An added complication has been that the supreme leader in Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been uncompromising over the nation’s disputed Presidential elections and has publicly supported the result. In a hard-line statement and sermons, he has declared the elections to be valid. Further he has warned of violence if demonstrators continue, as they have pledged, to flood the streets in defiance of the government.

Film Festivals - reflections on our wider society

The Sydney Film Festival for 2009 concluded on Sunday 14 June, after a relatively modest run this year - shortened by a week to reduce costs. There are now dozens of film festivals across the World with the most famous being Cannes and Sundance but several others such as Berlin, Venice, Toronto, Tribeca and Moscow are also well known and patronised. Film Festivals, particularly for alternate, art-house cinema often are reflections on societal trends, attitudes and current historical events. In many respects due to their non-block buster nature and limited expectations on commercial returns, this genre of film making can address topics which audiences may find difficult to accept - family dysfunctionalism, political issues, relationships, illnesses and even death are familiar themes. By using the medium of moving image, film conveys messages and provides stories with dimensional structure which other forms of communication do so with less success. The Sydney Film Festival in 2009 was no different with a selection of art-house films across the spectrum of features, documentaries, animation and docu-dramas. This year, films of interest included the black comedy '500 Days of Summer', 'Bronson', 'In the Loop', 'Louise-Michel' and five hours of Steven Soderbergh's view of the life of revolutionary, Che Guevara - screened in two parts.

Automation and corporate responsibility

For over the past thirty years, the automation of a number of customer/consumer service functions has been a consistent and unrelenting trend. Services as varied as telephony, travel services (ticketing and check-in as illustrated), reservations, banking, and parking for motor vehicles have seen live human beings replaced by computerised equipment for automated service delivery. The basis for much of this automation has been to improve efficiency, timing, reduce costs and allow customers the flexibility to make their own arrangements at their own convenience. Indeed the corporate cost line has been seen as the primary beneficiary of this trend.

The media have often commented on these evolutionary trends but perhaps the fundamental change is not related to cost but rather corporate responsibility. By placing the emphasis on customers and the general public to make manage their own services, the responsibility and accountability of corporations to ensure that services are delivered efficiently has been reduced if not almost abrogated. A parrallel argument is that automation, while reducing cost of services to corporations has not necessarily translated into reducing overall costs to consumers. While some online services may have reduced the prices of some products, there are many others where the changes have been few and in fact a base price decrease has been more than matched by other related costs such as transport increasing.

In broad terms, this trend is one which had brought an unhealthy dislocation in human to human contact for a contestable concept of benefits.

A Wind that blows so strong

In our solar system, the Sun continuously emits a stream of charged particles which is the so termed 'solar wind' against which the Earth's magnetosphere acts as barrier. However the solar wind also acts as a defence against a range of cosmic rays which come into the solar system and which potentially could be harmful to both spacecraft and astronauts alike. Currently the sun has been going through what is perceived as an active phase, generally thought to measure between 95 years and a 116 years in duration. According to current measurement, this phase has already been progressing for the past 80 years meaning that a lower level of activity or general lull could occur around 2020. Whether the Sun does lull in activity or not, it does not impact on climate change or carbon emissions which remain a terrestrial concern.

The World's Environmental Tipping Point

In December this year one of the most critical international conferences to be held in the last two centuries will take place. The sessions (COP 15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will bring together the Parties of the Convention and Observer States (Governments), the United Nations System and observer organizations duly admitted by the Conference of the Parties (as the convention refers to the signatories). The conference, amongst many challenges will need to find agreement between Governments on greenhouse gas emissions, carbon level reductions, renewable energy and a range of related issues. There is little doubt or disagreement regarding the science, the need for action nor the urgency for such action. The question is one of which countries are prepared to start taking the necessary steps first and lead the way if necessary.

This in no way removes or alters the basic core issue which remains the need for all nations to contribute action not just the developed nations or the developing nations. This poses some highly uncomfortable challenges in defining economic activity and growth; re-engineering power production away from coal-fired generators and into cleaner energy generation being one such critical event.

Up in the Air - North Korea

One again, the regime of Kim Jong Il has tested the international community's tolerance with long range missile launch tests. As the Bloomberg news summarised " North Korea tested its second nuclear device on May 25, defying international condemnation that built up after a ballistic-missile launch in April. Two days ago, Kim Jong Il’s regime threatened an armed strike against South Korea for agreeing to participate in a U.S.-led program to stop and search ships suspected of carrying weapons of mass destruction".

North Korea is the world's most isolated, totalitarian state and operates at the edge of brinkmanship to attempt to gain some yet not well understood advantage. The World strongly relies on neighbouring states such as the People's Republic of China to try and intercede with the North Korean leadership yet often China finds that it has no greater influence than anyone else in dealing with the paranoid regime.

North Korea under its current leadership is unlikely to adopt any change in direction and each step forward in developing improved relations is often superceded by two steps back. Impoverished, dependent on aid from other countries, paranoid and with unaffordable military spending North Korea sits in stark contrast to its more prosperous neighbour in the South. The only real chance for improvement sits with the departure of its current leader Kim Jong-Il and a transition leadership which is willing to accept that no-one in the international community is interested in invading their country. Far more is the opposite as the region craves stability and peaceful co-existence.

The value of social linkers

In his international bestseller book, 'The Tipping Point', Malcolm Gladwell refers to 'Connectors' or people 'with a special gift for bringing the world together'.... 'the kinds of people who know everyone' and their real importance is not only the number of people they know, but the kinds of people they know. In Gladwell's definition, Connectors are 'people whom all of us can reach in only a few steps because, for one reason or another, they manage to occupy many different worlds and subcultures and niches'. Gladwell's description fits a group of people who may not be necessarily known in high end business or political circles or celebrity/social pages of magazines and electronic media however their influence and 'connecting' may be profound. Everyone in their life may run across local connectors and from time to time, and occasionally people who traverse much greater boundaries. 'Connectors' however are not networkers as a connector is someone who can span many different worlds not merely within one profession or industry.

Impressions from the Past

Over the past two years, Egyptologists, Archaeologists, Ancient Historians and generally those with an interest in Ancient Egypt will have been following the recent claimed discovery of the mummy of arguably one of the most important figures of that long passed civilisation, Hatshepsut (pictured) of the 18th Dynasty. Pharoahs in Ancient Egypt passed through male lines as they were meant to be both man and god and although women could and did govern Egypt this was only as Regents where the male heir was deemed too young to ascend the throne. This was not the case with Hatshepsut where, as a woman, she was able to move beyond the position of Regent to the underage heir Thutmose III and actually become Pharoah in her own right and actually co-ruler with Thutmose III when he came of age. Her reign which lasted from 1473 BC to 1458 BC heralded a period of considerable stability and prosperity in Egygt.

As Pharoah, Hatshepsut adopted the normal regal image including wearing a false stylised beard in public and religious ceremonies and the serpents crested crown of Egypt.

Yet in all other ways, Hatshetsup's image was feminine. She remains one of the most intriguing figures of Ancient Egyptian history most notable due to the fact that images of her and references to her were erased from monuments years after her death most likely on the instructions on Thutmose III. Recent research undertaken in Egypt has now shown that references to her as Queen were not erased, only those as Pharoah. Her royal cartouche is shown (at right).

In order to be Pharoah in any guise, Hatshepsut would have needed the acceptance of the priesthood, the army, the nobility and the royal court to succeed. Her story from 3,500 years ago still has a resonance today for women also navigating their way through the corridors of power and business.

Tourists to Egypt can be thankful for Hatshepsut's reign for she constructed many of the most stunning monuments and temples still visible there. Her mortuary temple in the desert at Deir el Bahri remains one of the great wonders of the Ancient World.

Opinion - Swine Flu H1N1

The latest animal to human virus mutation, the Mexican Swine Flu or H1N1 again demonstrates the capacity of viruses to mutate and literally jump species with relative ease. New Scientist (2 May 2009) points out that the virus was genetically stable until 1976 as a mild, purely swine flu. In that year it affected people at a military camp in New Jersey and by 1998, the virus had hybridised with human and bird flu viruses. The current version of H1N1 in Mexico has surface proteins from Swine flu virus, five swine flu genes, two avian flu genes and one human flu gene (shown above). The surface protein being the swine version means that human antibodies will not recognise it.

The other matter which comes to mind is the use of antibiotics in animal husbandry - the use of antibiotics is widespread in farming and while it prevents animals from becoming sick, it does not prevent initial infection nor the transmission of disease. Connected to this aspect is the potential risk of an infection becoming antibiotic resistant as large scale farms become in effect, incubation laboratories.

An example which springs to mind is 'Golden staph' or Staphylococcus aureus which is mostly associated with hospital acquired infections, mainly post-operative. Since the mid 1990s antibiotic resistant 'Golden Staph' has been detected in abattoirs in the meat and livestock industry and also in site sampling in the general community.

The high use of antibiotics with animals has been in use for decades but with some bacterium common to various species and also humans and some viruses developing the capacity to leap between species, how long will it be before such a step takes place and humans face an infection (viral or bacteria), created in farming and resistant to any treatment?

How many degrees of separation?

It was in the late 1960s that the psychologist, Stanley Milgram, ran his small experiment to determine how many steps it would take for 160 people living in Omaha, Nebraska to use their social acquaintances to direct a mail package to a stockbroker located in Boston, Massachusetts. On average, he found the exercise took five to six stages of social contacts to eventually result in the mail packages arriving to the stockbroker. This result led to the concept of six degrees of separation.

In an interconnnected world, now dominated by convergent technology in telecommunications and the internet, the six degrees of separation paradigm would appear to be shifting to a series of cross connections which may mean in many respects that six degrees may often be much less.

In a simple example of this new interconnected reality, I placed a simple quiz on one of the latest social networking sites, Facebook and uploaded it to the main directory of the site. The number of quizzes on Facebook runs into the hundreds and so this item could be easily lost. Without any marketing or promotion, just interconnected communities of people, over 42,000 persons undertook the quiz online spread throughout a dozen different countries over two weeks. All of this was effectively electronic word of mouth and social networking.

Eye into space

Later this month the European Space Agency will launch the Herschel Space Observatory (formerly called Far Infrared and Sub-millimetre Telescope or FIRST) into remote orbit 1.5 million kilometres from Earth (or four times the distance to the moon). The telescope has the largest single mirror ever built for a space telescope. At 3.5-metres in diameter the mirror will collect long-wavelength radiation from some of the coldest and most distant objects in the Universe. In addition, Herschel will be the only space observatory to cover a spectral range from the far infrared to sub-millimetre.

Herschel is only the latest in a list of similar heat sensing telescopes placed in orbit outside of Earth the others being IRAS (1983), ISO (1995-98), Spitzer (2003-09), Akari (2006-2007).

While admiring these efforts to boldly go where no-one has gone before, its almost axoimatic that the large funds spent on space exploration would equally be valuable being focussed on the declining environmental situation back on planet Earth. Its almost ironic that as science explores the outer reaches of space and the formation of the universe, our own home planet is heading for an atmospheric decline which may render much of this exploration as redundant.

How much money is needed?

The G20 summit in London concluded this week and the leaders of the member countries have committed to $1.1 trillion in new funds which will greatly increase the capital available to the International Monetary Fund. The goal in mind is a revival in trade, which is expected to contract this year for the first time in 30 years. Of note however the combination of loans and guarantees fell short of an injection of fresh fiscal stimuli into the world economic system — this was due to division between Continental Europe and the United States over whether to act now or wait to see whether existing spending measures took effect.

Most member countries have already committed major funding outlays and released vast sums of funds into their economies through various mechanisms - in the US this has meant buying up the bad debts and loans which their banking system had both created and then shared with the world. In Australia, the strategy is to stimulate consumer spending by providing actual cash payments to families earning under $100K per annum. The question is whether these levels of payments are sufficient to compensate for the loss of economic activity due to the mismanagement in part of the world (and US in particular) banking system. Will it be enough?

Asteroids and the threat to Earth

The question of what action to take when there is the possibility of an asteroid collision with the Earth periodically surfaces from time to time in science and astronomy circles. With impact craters clearly visible on most continents (and most recently discovered in the Yukatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico) and the theory that an asteroid strike led to the demise of the dinosaur age (at the end of the Cretaceous period), this matter is one which won't disappear. The options of how to prevent a collision are not numerous but in practical terms only a handful have any chance of success. Asteroid Ida (pictured) is 35 klms in length and is located in the asteroid belt and does not cross Earth's orbit but represents the size and scale of many of these bodies floating in relatively nearby space.

One option often canvassed is to actually destroy an asteroid through the detonation of a nuclear device below the surface however the most obvious pitfall is without knowing precisely the composition and density of the material, the only result may be to splinter the asteroid and create additional possible impacts on the Earth. More favourably considered are strategies of 'nudging' an asteroid away using nuclear explosions in near proximity or alternatively a concentrated range of laser beams using solar power from reflected rays of the sun with the same effect.

Whatever the possible solutions may be, the principal concern is to be able to actually detect an asteroid before it's too close. In that respect space surveillance programs have fallen on hard times and its more luck than intention when an asteroid is located travelling nearby.

Earth Hour 2009

Earth Hour once again comes around in its 3rd year and now 3,000 cities and towns in over 90 countries are participating with the support of the United Nations. The actual level of carbon emissions saved by switching off for 60 minutes is very small however the need for constant consciousness in order to encourage policy action should not be underestimated. The chronic need for wide agreement between nations and major polluters at the Copenhagen conference this year is essential if some possibility of mitigating the most extreme effects is to be achieved.

In the World, where to go?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted a rise of the earth's temperature of between 4 degrees C and 6.4 degrees C by 2100 - this prediction is considered to be conservative and increasingly climate change science is indicating a 4 degree C temperature rise much earlier and closer to 2050. Just what impact would a 4 degree C heat increase mean?

In reality a 4 degree C heat change would be dire for the planet and for the human population. Apart from the ice melting and a sizeable increase in sea levels, increasingly frequent large violent storms and growing acidity in the sea, many parts of the planet will be arid desolate zones without the capacity to sustain life. The United States, South America, Africa, Southern Europe, the Middle East, India, China, South-East Asia and Australia for the most part would be arid deserts. Only the most Northern and most Southern parts of the planet would be warm enough to have human habitation - Canada, Alaska, Northern Europe/Scandinavia, Russia, Greenland in the North and Antartica, New Zealand, Tasmania in the South. A few pockets would remain in Western Australia and the Southern tip of South America but little else.

In order to reduce the impact of this scenario, 70% of carbon emissions would need to be reduced over the next 20 years however the opposite is occuring with carbon increases of around 3%. Perhaps this is the beginning of the end of human domination of this planet. What will come next?

How much will the sea rise ?

New Scientist (March 14, 2009) reports that the estimates or rising sea level provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which forecast a rise of 18 to 59 centimetres by 2100 are too low. The estimates did not include water from the Greenland and Antartica ice sheets and Greenland alone has enough ice which if melted would raise sea levels by 6 metres on average, worldwide. The most recent measurements show sea level has been rising 3 millimetres a year since 1993.

This is not good news as the altered estimates would bring forward the dates by which low level land and island groups would experience permanent water inundation. The difficulty with all these estimates is the lack of clear models which encompass a rigorous methodology including all known ice sources which can melt and feed directly into sea levels.

Australia's military position

According to the latest information, Australia's current military strength stands at:
Army: 26,611 full time and 15,892 Reserves
Airforce: 13,521 full time and 2,653 Reserves
Navy: 12, 935 full time and 1,785 Reserves

...with 59 main battle tanks, 71 F/A-18 fighters, 21 F-112 strike aircraft and a small handful of surface craft vessels (6 mine hunters, 4 guided missile frigates, 8 frigates, 9 amphibious landing craft and 6 submarines).

Australia ranks 13th in terms of military expenditure but only ranks 68th in terms of size of armed forces. Australia's modest military outlay of $24B USD in spending in compares very small to France at $61B USD, the United States at $713B (ex NATO) and China at $61B USD.

In total, this is a very small but high tech level military force and suitable for the South-East Asia region. The suitability of having battle tanks remain questionable given the lack of possible deployments which would require this type of armament.

Executive Salaries

The current world economic downturn again brings into sharp relief the level of remuneration of senior executive of large companies or corporations particularly where remuneration levels remain high when employees are being made redundant and or the corporation has suffered significant trading and business losses. American Sol Trujillo's remuneration for the Australian telecommunications company, Telstra is one such example. Trujillo's remuneration package in 2006 was $8.71M, then in 2007 it was $11.7M climbing to $13.4M in 2008 and he will leave the company mid year with a reported more than $30M payout. Telstra's share price has fallen during this period, it was ruled out of the tender for the national broadband network and has made redundant thousands of employees. Where is the logic of all this?

Yet this is minor compared with the stories coming out of Wall Street where financial institutions are receiving extraordinary bailouts courtesy of the American taxpayer, yet many of those responsible for the debt crisis have yet to be brought to account and have retained their massive earnings.

Australia - Victorian Bushfires

The cost in terms of life and economic loss has not been finalised however one week later the current tally from the Victorian bushfires reads with a sobering level of seriousness - 1,831 homes destroyed; 181 lives lost to date; 455,000 hectares burned plus the large financial cost which sits behind these figures. Running in parrallel to the current debate on whether the fire control policy of consistent backburning in Winter has been properly followed and the 'Leave early or stay and fight' is now valid, the question arises again as to whether these fires represent the impact of global warming. The UK Government's commissioned international committee report states that Southern Australia will experience higher temperature for longer periods and greater periods of drought. The possibility of larger and more intense fires in Australia needs to be recognised and changes are needed to reflect the new environmental reality. Patterns of settlement; forest management, water conservation should all be reassessed and altered to suit the new climatic patterns arising.

Polar Bears and the loss of ice cover

New Scientist reports (Jan 31, 2009) that the number of undernourished polar bears has tripled over the past twenty years. Polar bears only fast during the mating season during Spring and this is considered a temporary behavour. In 1985 and 1986, the proportion of bears fasting was 9.6% and 10.5% respectively however by 2005 and 2006 this had risen to 21.4% and 29.3% - triple the earlier twenty years. The amount of ice melting which reduces platforms from which bears can fish as well as provide nesting dens for seals to build for their pups is seen as the main culprit. With this aspect and a vast array of other data coming to light, its difficult to see how there can be doubters still consistently saying that global warming is not a real and genuine phenomenon.

The question of motivation

While I'm sitting here trying to overcome a procrastination (rather than writer's block) my thoughts again turn to why I want to write - to tell stories? - to inspire others? - to entertain? - to inform? boredom? to influence debate and direction in the wider community? I'm really not sure as it could be one or many of the above or indeed none of the above reasons. Some writers have something to say in fiction which they know would never be read if written as an essay in non fiction. My feeling is the inspiration for myself to tell stories is to impart something more than the tale itself but to reflect on the human condition and the way in which different events are perceived.

Valentine's Day in the modern era

Each year, once again Valentine's Day comes around on 14 February. Although its history has stronger religious overtones, from Geoffrey Chaucer's time onward it has been a moment of expressing romance between lovers. However for the 20th and 21st Century, it is a time of the sound of ringing cash registers as ridiculous sums are spent on ridiculously marked up flowers, cards, chocolates, dinners and just about anything with a heart shape. The original meaning of St Valentine's Day has long been lost with the overbearing commercialisation of the day. For many without Valentines (or partners committed to the practice of sending flowers) the day can be a source of frustration and an ever present reminder of singledom.

As the US political leadership wrangles over the stimulus package, President Obama has commented that if he doesn't fix things in three years, he will be a one term president. Its a possible but unlikely scenario at this stage.

Opinion - Economic stimulus packages

The question of economic stimulus packages is problematic in the Western economies. Will the availability of large sums of public money to bail out the private sector be enough? Indeed providing larger payments in various benefits to increase consumer spending is questionable when the underlying financial institutions are either reluctant or unable to provide the level of business lending to provide economic growth.

Also the question remains whether the banks and other financial institutions have actually learnt anything from this situation or continue to believe (behind the scenes) that their actions in lending practices and selling dubious debt instruments into the market made any commercial sense other than greed. The bonus system used for the finance sector encouraged that behaviour. In that sense the Wall Street Bull might better be portrayed as the Wall Street goat.

The World as its stands in early 2009

Summing up the current World situation is rather confronting - environmental degradation/climate change; financial markets across all major economies contracting; serious conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan; continuing instability in the Middle East; failed states in North Eastern Africa and the Pacific Rim and a plethora of related problems of similar magnitude.

The question remains whether the political leadership of major states together with the key business and economic leadership figures are able to add to make further progress with these problems this year; or whether there will continue to be considerable rhetoric but not equally matched by concerted equal action.