ANZAC Day falls on the 25th of April each year and now commemorates the service of Australians in many military conflicts across the world. The date originates from the landing of Australian and New Zealand troops on the coast of the Gallipoli peninsula on the morning of 25 April 1915 - the peninsula was fiercely defended by Ottoman Turkish forces and ultimately cost the lives of over 8,000 Australian service members before they were evacuated at the end of 1915.
At this time of continuing conflict in Eastern Europe, in the Middle East and simmering civil conflicts in other regions, the "Ode" printed below continues to resonate.
"For the Fallen" by Laurence Binyon, published 21 September 1914, the fourth stanza of the poem -
They shall not grow old, as we that are left grow old:
Easter, a time of year associated with the Easter bunny, chocolate Easter eggs and for the religious, ceremonies such as the Stations of the Cross representing the death of Jesus Christ or Easter Sunday services. For many people, the public holidays bring a much wanted long weekend period to rest, have a break, see family and friends or pursue interests which are often harder to fit into busy working weeks. In a much troubled world with extreme uncertainties, wherever you may be, happy Easter !
Even in a stubborn cost-of-living crisis, it seems there’s one luxury most Australians won’t sacrifice – their daily cup of coffee.
Coffee sales have largely remained stable, even as financial pressures have bitten over the past few years.
So too have prices. Though many of us became upset when prices began to creep up last year, they’ve since largely settled in the range between $4.00 and $5.50 for a basic drink.
But this could soon have to change. By international standards, Australian coffee prices are low.
No one wants to pay more for essentials, least of all right now. But our independent cafes are struggling.
By not valuing coffee properly, we risk losing the internationally renowned coffee culture we’ve worked so hard to create, and the phenomenal quality of cup we enjoy.
Coffee is relatively cheap in Australia
Our recent survey of Australian capital cities found the average price of a small takeaway flat white at speciality venues is A$4.78.
In London, a small flat white costs about A$6.96. Singapore, A$8.42. In Athens, as much as A$9.95.
The cafe business is getting harder
Over the past few decades, coffee prices haven’t kept pace with input costs. In the early 2000s, after wages, food costs, utilities and rent, many cafes earned healthy profit margins as high as 20%.
For an independent owner operating a cafe with the average turnover of A$300,000, this would amount to a meagre A$22,800 annual net profit after all the bills are paid.
What goes into a cup?
Just looking at the cost of raw inputs – milk, beans, a cup and a lid – might make the margin seem lucrative. But they don’t paint the whole picture.
Over the past few years, renting the building, keeping the lights on and paying staff have all become much bigger factors in the equation for coffee shop owners, and many of these pressures aren’t easing.
1. Green coffee price
Increasingly subject to the effects of climate change, the baseline commodity price of green (unroasted) coffee is going up.
Arabica – the higher quality bean you’re most likely drinking at specialty cafes – is a more expensive raw product. Despite levelling off from post-pandemic highs, its price is still trending up. In 2018, it sold for US$2.93 per kilogram, which is projected to increase to US$4.38 dollars in 2025.
Robusta coffee is cheaper, and is the type typically used to make instant coffee. But serious drought in Vietnam has just pushed the price of robusta to an all-time high, putting pressure on the cost of coffee more broadly.
2. Milk prices
The price of fresh milk has risen by more than 20% over the past two years, and remains at a peak. This has put sustained cost pressure on the production of our most popular drink orders: cappuccinos and flat whites.
3. Wages and utilities
Over the past year, Australian wages have grown at their fastest rate since 2009, which is welcome news for cafe staff, but tough on operators in a sector with low margins.
Electricity prices remain elevated after significant inflation, but could begin to fall mid-year.
Specialty vs. commodity coffee: why price expectations create an industry divide
One of the key factors keeping prices low in Australia is consumer expectation.
For many people coffee is a fundamental part of everyday life, a marker of livability. Unlike wine or other alcohol, coffee is not considered a luxury or even a treat, where one might expect to pay a little more, or reduce consumption when times are economically tough. We anchor on familiar prices.
Because of this, it really hurts cafe owners to put their prices up. In touch with their customer base almost every day, they’re acutely aware of how much inflation can hurt.
But in Australia, a huge proportion of coffee companies are also passionate about creating a world-class product by only using “specialty coffee”. Ranked at least 80 on a quality scale, specialty beans cost significant more than commodity grade, but their production offers better working conditions for farmers and encourages more sustainable growing practices.
Although not commensurate with the wine industry, there are similarities. Single origin, high quality beans are often sourced from one farm and demand higher prices than commodity grade coffee, where cheaper sourced beans are often combined in a blend.
Running a specialty cafe can also mean roasting your own beans, which requires a big investment in expertise and equipment.
It’s an obvious example of doing the right thing by your suppliers and customers. But specialty cafes face much higher operating costs, and when they’re next to a commodity-grade competitor, customers are typically unwillingly to pay the difference.
Approach price rises with curiosity, not defensiveness
When cafe owners put up their prices, we often rush to accuse them of selfishness or profiteering. But they’re often just trying to survive.
Given the quality of our coffee and its global reputation, it shouldn’t surprise us if we’re soon asked to pay a little bit more for our daily brew.
If we are, we should afford the people who create one of our most important “third spaces” kindness and curiosity as to why.
In an uncertain world with conflict, existential climate and environmental impacts and economic unknowns, it's important to find time to find some time for peace, serenity and connection with family and friends.
Seasonal greetings wherever you are and whatever your faith or beliefs.
The new year beckons. 2023 will no doubt follow a similar pathway to the very difficult sequence of recent years since COVID-19 first appeared thereafter being followed by a serious military conflict in Europe. The resultant compounding impact on world economies has led to central banks in established economies warning of a strong likelihood of a world-wide recession in 2023. The year ahead promises to provide a serious challenge for people across the world as summarised below -
The global economy continues to contract with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2022 reducing its global growth forecast from 2023 to 2.7%, compared to a 2.9% forecast in July, amid combined pressures from the war in Ukraine, high energy and food prices, inflation and sharply higher interest rates. The IMF has warned that conditions could worsen significantly during 2023. Most of the professional investment firms and funds agree and have continued to hold large cash reserves.
The Russian - Ukrainian war, initiated by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin commenced on 24 February 2022 and has now continued for over 10 months with no resolution in sight. The Ukrainian government and the country's armed forces have held their ground with Western military assistance and continue to do so. The impact of this conflict has been felt across the world and far beyond Europe's borders.
COVID-19 continues to pose a threat despite the development of capable vaccines including new generation mRNA ones. The sudden opening-up of China in December 2022 after a high level of restrictions through the country, coupled with low vaccination rates and poorly performing locally produced vaccines has seen staggering infection rates in that country. The risk of new variants arising in China being a key concern of the World Health Organisation. China has now ceased publishing data on infection rates.
Climate change and global warming will remain in the centre of critical issues to combat as extreme weather events remain a threat world-wide. 2023 will be no different.
Despite these challenges, may 2023 be a year of success and health for you.
Christmas - a time for joy, sharing and for many, a time of expressing faith. It can also be a difficult point in the year for those experiencing hardship, isolation and/or the loss of someone close.
The festive season is represented by many images some of which find their origins in other festivals grounded in pagan periods of history. The Christmas tree is one of these images and practices. Although its generally agreed that the current form comes from 16th Century Germany and there is a relationship between Christmas trees and the 'tree of paradise' in medieval plays, the origin is more nuanced than these commemorations. The use of evergreen wreaths in symbolism can also be found in the Roman period in the mid-Winter festival of Saturnalia. Various other non-Christian cultures in Northern Europe also worshipped trees also using evergreens to dispel evil presences during Winter. In reality the Christmas tree is something of a synthesis over time between various beliefs.
As 2022 comes to an end, compliments of the season wherever you reside.
The results from the 2022 Federal election have underscored the disconnect between the direction of the Liberal Party of Australia and both the broader community and a key part of its own support base. The results thus far are -
76 seats are needed in the House of Representatives to become a Government
Australian Labor Party on 71 seats
Liberal National Party on 52 seats
Other being Independents or The Greens have 15 seats
Counting on postal votes and prepoll is continuing as over 6 million eligible voters used these methods.
In terms of percentage of total votes -
Liberal/National has 35.4 % (a fall of 3.29%)
Australian Labor Party has 32.8 % (the ALP vote actually fell 0.5%)
The Greens has 12.1 % (increased by 1.7%)
One Nation has 5.0% (increased by 1.9%)
United Australia Party has 4.3% (increased by 0.8%)
Independents have 5.51% (increased by 2.14%)
Others are at 4.95%
The Liberal Party has lost many of its key heartland seats in major metropolitan cities to Independents.
In the seat of Wentworth in Sydney's high income, educated Eastern suburbs many of the campaign workers for successful Independent candidate, Allegra Spender, identified either individually or collectively as former members of the Liberal Party. Many had voted for the now defeated incumbent Dave Sharma in previous elections. But they had left the party finding it had become extreme and was failing to address the existential crisis of climate change. This was excerbated with a range of secondary issues such as a federal anti-corruption agency being deemed critically important but managed in a dismal, if not pitiful manner by the Morrison Government.
In terms of climate change, many Liberals, including Members of Parliament and Ministers now belong to, or support, an external organisation called the Coalition for Conservation (C4C). This inoccuous sounding body advocates for renewable energy, carbon reduction, carbon capture and storage, electric vehicles, transition programs for clean industries and clear measures to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. C4C attended the meetings around COP26 in Glasgow last year. It is telling about the Liberal Party that it is only through another body can any sensible debate occur on climate change initiatives but not within the party itself.
The issue therefore is less to do with the change in Government from the Liberal National Coalition to the Australian Labor Party (the overall national swing of 3.5 % is close to a standard change of Government) but more so the loss of the inner heartland of the Liberal Party itself. While the ALP has won Government, it has done so with a stagnant voting base with the real winners being the Independents and The Greens. Unless the Liberal Party is able to restore its broad church umbrella, the Party will find winning the electorates necessary for Government to be well nigh unattainable for many years, if not decades. This in itself has echoes to the wilderness years the Australian Labor Party experienced during the great split with the Democratic Labour Party (the DLP).
Easter Sunday or Resurrection Sunday (referred to as Pascha in Armaic, Greek or Latin) commemorates the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead, three days after his crucifixion by the Romans at Calvary dated approximately at 30 AD. This period is a cultural festival and holiday for those of the Christian faith marked by hot cross buns, chocolate eggs (and bunnies) and preceded a week earlier by Palm Sunday.
Easter 2022 occurs at a time when the world continues to face consider pressures with an ongoing pandemic (SARS-CoV-2), a serious nation state war between Russian and Ukraine, many smaller unresolved conflicts in the Middle East and a general economic impact across the world.
2021 is a year that most people would prefer to simply disappear. To describe the last twelve months as 'challenging' is a misnomer and under-estimation of the level of difficulty with which Australia and the world has had to contend. A listing of some of the key events of 2021 provides a brief insight -
COVID-19: just as the vaccines (from pharma companies, Astra-Zeneca, Pfizer and Moderna) rolled out in large quantities, the virus mutated not at all surprisingly. New variants most notably Delta and the almost sci-fi name of 'Omicron' became the new dominant mutations raising the concern that the virus may be able to break-through the vaccines. As global management consultancy, McKinsey & Co commented "COVID-19 continues to pose risks, and managing it as endemic will
require a momentous societal shift. Perhaps the hardest part will be coming to
terms with the idea that this is no temporary phenomenon; we all must make permanent
behavioural changes after the crisis". COVID-19 is here to stay and the pandemic remains an ongoing crisis into 2022.
AUKUS: The announcement of a new strategic alliance titled AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom and The United States) took many countries by surprise not the least, France, that had a contract to build new diesel submarines for Australia. The new alliance included providing Australia with the capability to build nuclear submarines thus rendering the contract with France null and void. The diplomatic fallout was predictable and public.
World economy and supply chains: the fact that the world economy did not shrink further is a surprise. The fact that global supply chains have been severely disrupted is not. With the supply of goods and services now segmented, out-sourced and distributed globally, delays and shutdowns in several countries affected the rest of the world. A single container ship, Ever Given, stuck in the Suez Canal caused losses estimated at USD $9.6 billion per day. The experience of COVID-19 has led to calls in many countries for better self sufficiency in the future, yet the impact of this situation will continue for the next few years.
Taliban return to power in Afghanistan: the 20 year war in Afghanistan ended with the Taliban once again in power. The Western nations appeared shocked and surprised however closer examination has shown the inevitability of the Government in Kabul falling from power. Non existent relationships with local provincial communities, massive corruption and an army that was not paid for months all led to the demise. The lessons of previous civil wars clearly had not been heeded.
New US President: Joe Biden was elected president of the United States defeating Donald Trump leading to hopes that the US would again play a role in international relations that Trump had largely abandoned. Biden certainly reopened dialogue which his predecessor had closed off.
COP26 Climate Change - Glasgow: COP26 ended without the major agreement that many people and nations had hoped. Against the backdrop of the latest IPCC report, many important decisions were reached such as for methane emissions and there was understanding that CO2 emissions must be reduced well before 2050. The US and China joint statement made it clear that reductions are needed this decade by 2030 if global warming is to be averted. Yet concrete tangible agreement across the world which leads to meaningful target reductions remained elusive.
Australia's vaccine rollout: despite having tackled the COVID-19 virus effectively in the first year, Australia's vaccine program faltered and ran too slowly in the second pandemic year allowing the virus to reach a foothold again through the Delta variant. By the end of 2021 Australia had caught up with the rest of the world and had administered over 42 million vaccine doses with many States now reaching over 90% of the eligible adult population (over 16 years of age).
2021 has been a difficult year - may 2022 provide some relief and hope.
Christmas 2021: the world still grapples with COVID-19 and its variants, Delta and Omicron. Despite this global situation, the holiday season is upon us whether Summer in the Southern Hemisphere or Winter in the Northern Hemisphere. An opportunity for a pause from the endless, exhausting effect that the pandemic has created.
Christmas in the Christian calendar has many symbols and representations, some of which originate from pagan festivals, others that are distinctly religious while some are simply practices which have evolved over time.
The Christmas tree is one such symbol. Much of what has been conveyed is only myth such as the role of pine trees to Martin Luther who is reported to have believed the trees represented the goodness of God. Or Saint Boniface cutting down a fir tree to prevent a human sacrifice and then converting all the persons present to Christianity. When a new fir tree grew in its place Saint Boniface reputedly hung it upside down to represent the Holy Trinity. None of this is actually historically recorded or reliably reported.
What is known is the Christmas tree was adopted in Germany notably during the 15th Century and well entrenched by the 17th Century. A guild in Freiburg, Germany decorated a tree with apples, flour-paste wafers, tinsel and gingerbread. The demand for trees in the province of Alsace (now part of France) was so great that ordinances were passed restricting each household to one tree. Strasbourg passed laws preventing people from cutting off pine branches. Unadorned Christmas trees were a common item for sale during Winter and were called 'Weihnachtsbaum'' (or Christmas tree).
In 1848 Queen Victoria and Prince Albert introduced Christmas trees to their family and the palace thereafter the trend became established in Victorian England, before spreading further afield. The practice was then taken up in the United States although not immediately with some resistance from communities that preferred a more pious and religious commemoration of the birth of Jesus.
The Christmas tree nonetheless has become a ubiquitous part of the Christmas custom.
This week the latest Governance Institute/IPSOS Ethic Index 2021 was released and shows a decline in the confidence of adult Australians in ethical behaviour in various industries, professions and institutions. Although a clear fall from the previous year, the rating of ethical conduct remains higher than 2019. So what are the specific findings ?
In summary -
Overall Australians do consider Australian society to be 'somewhat ethical' with Millenials and Generation X rating with slightly higher scores than Baby Boomers.
Respondents to the survey were asked to rate the importance of ethics and then compare the importance to the actual perceptions of ethical behaviour.
Health continues to rate as having high ethical behaviour with a net score of 72% similar to last year which has 73.
Charity and and Not-for-profit sector were rated as very ethical with an ethics score of 66 from 2020.
Public Sector as perceived as being 'somewhat ethical' with an Index score of 46 but within public sector services there were wide variations with fire services rating 85 and ambulance services scoring 79%. In contrast Judges, state,local and federal public servants and politicians were all seen to be less ethical in 2021 than 2020.
Federal Parliament rated a very dismal ethical score of -11 and is seen as the least ethical organisation.
Media sector had a significant fall in ethics rating falling from 22 to 2%.
Top ethical issues are consistent with previous years. 'Corruption' is in the top position as with previous years followed by 'misleading and deceptive advertising' then 'çompany tax avoidance'.
While corporate ethical conduct was fairly neutral, high levels of CEO pay was considered unethical.
Climate change features strongly with the clear majority of Australians (87%) feel there is a moral obligations to take action on climate change, even if it reduces profits, results in job losses or lower jobs in the future (88%).
Australians feel that the Federal Government has an urgent ethical obligation to take action on climate change (71%) and this has increased from 2020.
Easter, a key set of dates in the Christian calendar, like similar religious commemorations has acquired additional practices, the origins of which are somewhat vague. Easter eggs and hot cross buns are more attuned to the practices of Easter which commence with Palm Sunday, the week before Easter.
The origin of the Easter bunny and its role in being connected to Easter is much more odd with little actual evidence to show how the bunny came to Easter at all.
The few historical references that the bunny receives, appear in German Lutheran texts around 1572 referring to an Easter Hare which judges children and refers also to eggs. This reference reappears again in 1682 with the text de ovis paschalibus which refers to an Easter Hare bringing eggs to children. In the 18th Century, German migrants to the United States brought the Easter Hare with them with the bunny shaped in sweets.
In 1835 Jacob Grimm, of the renowned Brothers Grimm myth and fairytale writers, was mystified by the Bunny and concluded it may be associated with Ostara (as a sacred animal) and part of the celebration of the resurrection-day of the Christian God but this view was purely conjecture.
The truth is no-one actually knows how the bunny came to Easter but many people have the pleasure of eating a chocolate version nonetheless. Happy Easter !
As 2020 draws to an end, people around the world could be forgiven for hoping that 2021 will prove to be an easier year and that vaccines for COVID-19 are ultimately successful in blunting the effect of the pandemic. As at December 29, 2020 there are 81.2 million cases world-wide (and this is an under estimate) and 1.8 million deaths. Staggering numbers for the 21st Century with its health systems and biomedical expertise.
2020 has been a year of disruption, dislocation and hardship across communities in every continent. This has not meant that other critical issues have receded including regional conflicts and the many impacts of climate change which remain as constants and unrelenting.
Wherever you may reside, may 2021 be a year of rewarded hope, good health and resilience.
Social distancing, systematic hand cleaning, use of face masks, stay-at-home directions. Welcome to Easter 2020 and the impact of COVID 19. Easter can still be celebrated in many of the traditional ways with one of most well known being the hot cross bun. So prolific have hot cross buns become that these spiced breads can be found sitting in bakeries months before Easter arrives and in some cases all year round. Where did this custom and practice come from ? There is no definitive answer and its likely that the current practice most likely evolved from a number of different customs over varying periods of time. Traditionally hot cross buns are part of the Christian calendar and are eaten during Lent from Shrove Tuesday to midday on Good Friday. Various anecdotal stories have recorded buns being baked as far back as 1361 (St Alban's Abbey) or occuring in the time of the last Tudor monarch of England, Elizabeth 1 in the 16th Century. Hot Cross buns are definitely recorded as being produced in the 18th and 19th Centuries. Prior to this later period there appears to be little actual records in existence.
As 2019 draws to a close and the new year beckons, it is timely to reflect on the year past and the challenges coming in the year ahead. Above all else there are two which come to mind immediately being first, the economy (defined both international and domestic) and second climate change - which continues apace. These two challenges are inter-related in any case and deserve a holistic set of solutions which a range of governments seem unable or unwilling to address.
Solutions for the environment need to encompass an array of issues including energy generation policy and distribution networks, materiels usage and life cycles (across all manufacturing sectors), further development of renewable energy and reduction in fossil fuel reliance and of urgent attention, climate change adaptation for food production and general living. Without all of these matters being addressed concurrently, life for human beings on this planet will become increasing difficult with a potential 4C temperature increase now a viable possibility.
As far as the world economy can be viewed, the two major influences are Brexit and the US/China trade war. Brexit may be less pronounced than first thought as the European Union has already advised that it intends to press ahead with a Free Trade Agreement with the United Kingdom as soon as Brexit is finalised. The US/China trade war has led to repeated renegotiation and has not, as yet, eventuated into a complete trade suspension and is mainly a tit-for-tat use of tariff measures. Around the world however low wages, low inflation, low productivity and low interest rates are closer to stagflation than recession.
On the international relations front, 2020 will begin with the ongoing matters from 2019 - Brexit, the US/China trade conflicts, some scale back in the Syrian war due to the likely success of the Assad Government in finally winning the civil war and the ongoing internal violence in Afghanistan and Iraq. China will continue to press its claim to the South China Sea and North Korea, although quiet at present may resume some further missile tests.
Extract Table from Governance Institute Ethics Index 2016
The release of research commissioned by the Governance Institute of Australia confirms the distrust which the wider community have with a number of key sectors of society. Overall, according to the survey sample, 84% rate ethics as important to a well functioning society however Australian society was rated as being only 'somewhat ethical' showing that there is an perceived ethical deficit.
The survey had a number of key findings of note -
The ethical score by broad sector is shown in the extract Table (above)
demonstrating a high level of confidence in health and education while
at the opposite end of the measurement, a very low confidence in the
ethical behaviour of large corporations and the media.
Within the key business sectors, real estate agents have the lowest ethical score with 1 in every 2 people stating that they are unethical. In contrast farmers and agricultural businesses are perceived as being the most ethical.
Australians rate the ABC as the most ethical media platform.
The banking, finance and insurance sector has the lowest ethics score amongst all sectors with a particular focus on executive salaries and bonuses, followed by bribery/corruption and poor treatment of customers.
The top 5 ethical issues in business were rated as: corruption (69%), company tax avoidance (61%), misleading and deceptive advertising (59%), workplace bullying (50%) and discrimination and executive pay (both at 49%).
How was this sample constructed ?
n= 1,001
Gender: 50% male and 50% female
Work status: 15% were students, 59% working, 9% home duties, 9% retired, 6% not employed
Location: 21% from Sydney, 19% from Melbourne, 10% from Brisbane, 8% from Perth, 6% from Adelaide with the rest from around Australia
Education: mainly trade certificate: 28%, Bachelor degree: 23% and Post graduate: 11%
Household status: mainly single 35% couple with children: 25% couple without children: 25%
This survey dovetails with similar research by the Lowy Institute which rates public perception about the professions - on a consistent annual basis it shows an almost identical set of results. The fact that there is a continuing trend of distrust with the same sectors year-by-year should send a clear message that change is needed. Yet, none appears to occur.
An executive summary of the Governance Institute's research can be found at this link:
Investors and credit lenders have often raised concerns about the
level of commitment and decision-making acumen when members of company
boards do not have any personal investment in the companies they are
collectively directing. Often referred to as 'skin-in-the-game', there is now a
stronger focus on directors own shareholdings in their companies. The
Australian Shareholders Association (ASA) believe that non-executive directors
and key management personnel should have sufficient 'skin-in-the game' to ensure
greater alignment with shareholders' interests. While noting that more
companies in recent years have been introducing minimum shareholding
guidelines, there are many who refuse to place a requirement in writing. The
Australian Council of Superannuation Investors (ACSI) has a similar perspective
to the ASA and believes that any well governed board requires their directors
to hold equity in the company. Yet ACSI's research has found that 11 per
cent of the ASX 200 directors own no shares in the the companies they govern
and many of these directors have been on their boards for over 10 years.
Not surprisingly perhaps, the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD)
while professing to have no set policy position cites all the reasons not to
require directors to own shares - including discouraging potential candidates
from accepting board positions; causing more caution and a short term focus for
directors who do own shares; or potentially compromising a director's independence
if they own more 5 per cent or more. These are weak arguments and not surprising given AICD's protective view which often seeks to minimise the level of guidance and compliance on directors from outside parties. It does not however resolve the question and the ASA and ASCI positions sit in stark contrast to AICD.
The latest results from the McKinsey Global Survey on globalisation provides further reinforcement on the negative impact of disruption on the global economy over the next five years. The cross continent survey shows that senior executives now expect potential disruptions to be be very severe with the largest number of respondents ever recorded holding negative views - greater than in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2010 ( as shown above).
While responses varied by industry with uncertain or restrictive regulatory environment being most often cited, political and social instability was the second most cited concern. Perhaps the most startling information revealed was the almost complete lack of preparedness for dealing with geopolitical and political risks. Despite more than two-thirds of executives reporting their organisations saw these risks as important, less than 13 percent were able to cite their organisation as having taken any steps to address the risks. What steps were taken were generally ad hoc internal analyses as events occured (43%) while a very small number (18%) integrated comprehensive scenario methodologies into their strategic planning process.
If Government thinks the private sector is ready to deal with a crisis, this report which covers global business should dispel any such illusion. McKinsey provides common -sense advice to assist executives to manage such events: identify the trends and disruptions that are specific to their organisations; assess the potential impact of risks across a range of scenarios; develop initiatives to mitigate the risks or capture opportunities; establish a decision-making process that prioritises initiatives. Seems like sound advice.
The United States is often perceived to be the major bulwark against the trend of falling participation in the Christian religion in developed Western countries. Images of Southern Baptist choirs, evangelical preachers with syndicated programs and activist social justice ministers populate many contemporary film, television and online media mediums. But how accurate is this image with reality ? According to research from the Pew Institute, the truth is heading in the opposite direction.
The Christian faith in the United States is in decline and by a marked level.The percentage of adults (aged 18 or older) who describe themselves as Christians has dropped by nearly eight percentage points in only seven years from 78.4% in 2007 to 70.6% in 2014. Commensurately, the number of Americans describing themselves as atheist, agnostic or "nothing in particular" has increased from 16.1% to 22.8% over the same period. This drop, according to research by the Pew Institute, is mainly driven by declines amongst mainstream Protestants and Catholics.
For the organised mainstream Christian religion, the most concerning element is the decline in support in the Millenial generations and the ageing of the population for adults who are Christians. As a result of increasing non-affiliation with religion, the median age of mainstream Protestants is 52 years of age and the median age of Catholic adults is 49. This gentrification bodes badly for the future.
Fully 36% of young Millenials (those between the ages of 18 and 24) are religiously unaffiliated and 34% of older Millenials (aged 25-33) likewise. There is also time-trend data indicating that people in older generations are increasingly disavowing association with organised Christian religion.
Studies such as these from the Pew Institute are massive in size (sample sizes are over 35,000) and complexity including multi-ethnic and multi-faith research work. The factors for this decline will be multifaceted including changing lifestyles, values and demographics, weak institutional leadership, various moral/ethical scandals in major Churches over the past decade and societal fragmentation in the digital world to cite a few. At a time of rising militancy in the Islamic faith, the correlating but unrelated decline in Christian support is not a positive development.
