The Ukrainian Armed Forces - outnumbered but still lethal

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Ukraine's armed forces may be small by comparison with their Russian counterparts, however they have lethal capabilities and after seven years of battling insurgency in the two breakaway provinces, a level of combat experience has been gained.

Ukraine to its great credit could have had nuclear weapons but discarded these lethal weapons many years ago. These weapons were part of the Soviet arsenal but the Ukraine decided to have them dismantled at part of the arms control treaty.

A brief comparison of key categories of assets in the armed forces of both countries is provided below drawn from various sources including the European Union.

Military assets	Russia	Ukraine
Personnel Active Reserves	1,154,000 2,000,000	255,000 1,000,000
Army and other land forces Armoured vehicles Tanks Artillery Self-propelled artillery Rocket launchers	26,831 12,270 18,497 6,500 4,350	6,990 2,105 3,721 1,040 630
Air Force Fighters Multirole aircraft Attack aircraft Helicopters Combat drones	5,550 832 870 1,720 30	70 0 29 120 12
Navy Aircraft carrier Destroyers Frigates Corvettes Submarines	1 18 11 83 55+	0 0 1 0 0
Military budgets 2020	$ 61.7B	$ 5.9B

Russia dwarfs the Ukraine in every form of military asset capability except the critical one: morale and commitment to defend one's homeland. After two weeks of war, the Ukrainians have demonstrated the willingness and capacity to defend their country.

Russia and war with the Ukraine - Putin's Pronouncement

 Vladimir Putin - Shutterstock

 
Like an old-style Soviet autocrat, former KGB Lieutenant-Colonel and long serving president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin has initiated the war with the Ukraine. The decision was made solely by Putin without just cause and seemingly not supported by the Russian people at large. A largely symbolic vote by the Russian Parliament (the Duma) to recognise the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk did not include authorising war against the Ukraine. Significant and large protests across Russian cities and towns bear witness to the opposition to Putin's war.

Putin has variously been described in the media as madman, delusional, various other colourful descriptions and compared to either Hitler or Stalin. This reaction however largely obscures the informed analysis of his views provided by foreign affairs commentators and Russian political analysts. The fundamental core of Putin's decision remains his oft-stated view of what Russia lost with the disintegration of the former Soviet Union. He has always maintained that this event was a disaster and as a consequence he has sought to seemingly reverse the loss of prestige, territory, power and influence for Russia. This is largely at the expense of countries within Russia's historical sphere of influence and is very much the perspective of a former KGB officer.

Putin's views were again clearly demonstrated in the recorded meeting of Russia's Security Council on 22 February 2022. At this staged meeting, Putin commented on the Russian empire (whatever that is) and variously claimed the Ukraine was a colony with a puppet regime, was created by Lenin, was acquiring nuclear weapons and that the Russian and Ukrainian were actually one people and hence it should not exist. Putin has also commented that he does not want countries that join NATO to be the immediate neighbours to Russia itself.

Even Putin's intelligence chief and long term associate from the KGB days, Sergei Natyshkin was left stumbling and unsure what to say as Putin insisted he provide a full endorsement of the direction being taken. 

Putin operates with a flawed understanding of what action other countries may take. He has probably estimated that -

• NATO is unlikely to directly confront Russia and it will not fight for the Ukraine.
• Western sanctions can be weathered and have been factored into his calculations on the risks for  Russia in this conflict
• Russia has prepared for this war with modernising its Armed Forces and building significant foreign reserves to enable some level of protection from Western sanctions.

Within Russia's own intelligentsia and military commentators, there is little actual concern about NATO and the perceived threat which Putin alludes to. This is Putin's war with at worst only vague support amongst the Russian people and at best, the FSB (the successor organisation to the KGB), the breakaway provinces and senior officers in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. It is however hard to measure given the level of suppression of any public opinion in Russia.

ANZAC Day - 25 April 2021

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ANZAC Day and the sacrifice of the servicemen and women in time of war and conflict becomes momentarily, centre-stage. According to the Australian War Memorial, a total of 102,911 Australians have lost their lives as a result of service with Australian units since 1885. The range of wars, police actions, regional conflicts and disaster recovery is diverse in scale and duration as demonstrated below. The dates of the conflicts and actions are adjusted as many service personal died later as a result of their injuries or as a result of post war reconstruction activities such as occupation forces or mine and ordinance clearance.

Conflict	Dates	Mortalities
Sudan	1885	9
South Africa	1899-1902	589
China	1900-1901	6
First World War	1914-1921	61,605
Second World War	1939-1947	39,654
Australia: bomb removal Japan – Occupation force	1947-1950 1947-1952	4 3
Papua and New Guinea	1947-1975	13
Middle East (UNSTO)	1948	1
Berlin Airlift	1948-1949	1
Malayan Emergency	1948-1960	39
Kashmir – UN observer	1948-1985	1
Korean War	1950-1953	340
Malta	1952-1955	3
Korean War – Armistice	1953-1957	16
Southeast Asia (SEATO)	1955-1975	10
Indonesian Confrontation	1962-1966	22
Malayan Peninsula	1964-1966	2
Vietnam War	1962-1975	521
Thailand	1965-1968	2
Irian Jaya	1976-1981	1
Western Sahara (MINURSO)	1991-1994	1
Somalia	1992-1994	1
Bougainville	1997-2003	1
East Timor	1997-2003	4
Afghanistan	2001 - present	43
Iraq	2003-2013	4
Solomon Island (RAMSI)	2003-2013	1
Indonesia (Sumatra Assist)	2005	9
Fiji	2006	2

Lest we forget

75 Years on - Victory over Japan remembered

Australian Womens Army Service, New Guinea, 15 August 1945 (c) AWM

For Australia the 15th of August 2020 marks 75 years since the Victory over Japan (referred to as VJ Day) or Victory in the Pacific (or VP Day) and the end of World War II. Japan accepted the Allies demand for unconditional surrender and with the war with Germany already concluded, Word War II was at an end.

The war in the Pacific had been particularly cruel for Australia with over 22,000 Australian sbecoming prisoners of the Japanese. These comprised 21,000 from the Australian Army, 354 from the Royal Australian Navy and 373 from the Royal Australian Air Force. 40 nurses were also captured and hundreds of civilians placed into internment camps. Prisoners of War were formed into work partes to provide forced labour for the Imperial Japanese Army including the notorious Burma Railroad.

8,031 of the 22,376 Australian prisoners of war captured by the Japanese died in captivity leading to War Crimes Tribunals at the conclusion of the war that investigated the many reports of massacres and atrocities committed by the Japanese forces.

Australian fallen being exhumed for reinterment in the Wewak Military Cemetery 1945 (c) AWM

Lest we forget - ANZAC Day 2020

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As ANZAC Day dawns with a change in custom due to COVID-19, nonetheless the opportunity to reflect on the sacrifices made by those who have served in the Armed Forces particularly during wartime remains as valid as ever. While much of the ritual elements of ANZAC Day find their origins on the battlefields of the First World War, particularly Gallipoli and the Western Front, the contribution of the Second World War is just as poignant.

Australia's casualties in WWII were 39,655 killed or died as a result of their injuries during the period from 3 September 1939 until 30 June 1947. World War II ended in Europe on 7 May 1945 with Germany's surrender and in the Pacific on 14 August 1945 with Japan's surrender. Over 30,000 Australian service personnel were taken prisoner by the Axis Forces of which two-thirds of these were captives taken by the Japanese during the first weeks of their advance through south-east Asia in 1942. 36 per cent of all Australian prisoners died in the captivity of the Japanese.

It was during the American Civil War, that Union General, William Tecumseh Sherman made the oft used quote that has been repeated many times in various forms:  "War is hell... war is cruelty and you cannot refine it".

Lest we forget.

Anzac Day 2019

Australian War Memorial: Ambulances with wounded members, 9th Division, Adelaide 1943

On  25th April, as Australia commemorates and remembers those members of the community who served during various armed conflicts, particularly the fallen on the battlefield, there is also the need to recognise the many often badly wounded who survived the conflicts. Suffering either physical injuries or psychological effects or both for the rest of their lives, they often constitute twice the number compared to those lost in action.

During the First World War 1914-18, Australia's population was less than 5 million of which 416,809 men enlisted to serve. Of these 60,000 were killed, and 156,000 wounded, gassed or taken prisoner. The casualties and POWs combined constituted 51% of the Australian Imperial Force (AIF). A staggering number.

In the Second World War 1939-45, Australia had 993,000 serving in the armed forces from a population of 6.9 million. Of these 27,073 were killed in action or died with 23,477 wounded and 30,560 taken as prisoners of war. Of the POWs, 8,296 died in captivity mainly in Japanese camps.

Lest we forget.

Anzac Cove 1915: Wounded being transferred to Hospital ship Gascon

100 years on - The Armistice of 1918

British troops arrive in Cologne following the Armistice 1918

The Armistice to cease hostilities between the Central Powers and the Allies came into effect at 11 am  on the 11th November 1918 however it had only been signed by representatives at 5 am that same day. On that final morning prior to 11am slightly over 10,000 were still killed in conflict as commanders, mainly Allied, sought to gain territory prior to the cessation of hostilities. The Armistice had to be extended three more times until a peace treaty was finally concluded on 10 January 1920 with the Treaty of Versailles.

The cost for Australia in terms of lives lost in World War 1 was very high:

• 416,809 enlisted
• 62,000 killed
• 156,000 wounded

It would only be twenty-one years later than another World War would commence.

Lest we forget.