Showing posts with label Opinion - International Relations - Military. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opinion - International Relations - Military. Show all posts

Tuesday, 10 February 2026

Monitoring of nuclear tests

 

In the Australian outback, we’re listening for nuclear tests – and what we hear matters more than ever

ANU Media
Hrvoje Tkalčić, Australian National University

Tyres stick to hot asphalt as I drive the Stuart Highway from Alice Springs northward, leaving the MacDonnell Ranges behind. My destination is the Warramunga facility, about 500 kilometres north – a remote monitoring station I’ve directed for the Australian National University for nearly 19 years, and one of the most sensitive nuclear detection facilities on Earth.

When I started exploring Earth’s inner core in 1997, I had no idea my calling would lead me here, or that I’d spend years driving this highway through the red expanse of the Australian outback.

And today, as the New START treaty curbing the US and Russian nuclear weapons programs expires, the work we do in the red centre has become more important than ever before.

A giant telescope pointed at Earth’s centre

Located 37km southeast of Tennant Creek – or Jurnkkurakurr, as it’s known in the local Warumungu language – Warramunga consists of what might generously be called a demountable building, surrounded by sensors lined up across 20km of savannah, covered by red soil and long, white spinifex grass.

The facility operates two sophisticated arrays. One consists of 24 seismometers detecting vibrations through Earth, the other eight infrasound sensors picking up ultra-low-frequency sound waves inaudible to human ears.

When North Korea detonated its largest nuclear device in September 2017 – about 7,000km away – our instruments captured it clearly. Warramunga detected all six of North Korea’s declared nuclear tests, and our data was among the first to reach the International Data Centre in Vienna.

Aerial photo showing buildings in a red, scrubby landscape.
The Warramunga station is near Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory. Nearmap, CC BY

The geological stability and remoteness mean we detect events that might be masked elsewhere. When a wild brumby gallops past our sensors, we pick it up. When a nuclear bomb is tested on the other side of the world, we definitely know about it. We can distinguish it from an earthquake because of the different kinds of vibrations it produces.

Warramunga detects more seismic events than any other station in the global network. With multiple instruments in a carefully designed configuration, far from the coast and human activity, you have something like a giant telescope pointed at the centre of Earth.

An unusual partnership

Warramunga’s story began in 1965 when Australia and the United Kingdom jointly established it for nuclear test detection during the Cold War. In 1999, it was upgraded and later certified as a primary station in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization’s International Monitoring System.

The CTBTO, headquartered in Vienna, operates a global network of more than 300 facilities designed to detect any nuclear explosion anywhere on Earth. Australia hosts 21 of these facilities – the third-largest number globally.

But Warramunga is unique. It’s operated by a university on behalf of both the CTBTO and the Australian government, located on Warumungu Country. The location of sensors was determined in consultation with Traditional Owners to ensure the instruments would not interfere with sacred sites.

The Research School of Earth Sciences at the Australian National University in Canberra has managed Warramunga for more than 50 years, and we still do.

Life at the station

The station requires constant attention. Two dedicated technicians drive from Tennant Creek to the array each morning. By the time they arrive, the Sun is already high above the red land across which the array’s elements and termite mounds are spread.

They keep a careful watch on the world’s earthquakes and explosions, enduring extreme heat, dust, flies, fires, floods, thunderstorms and the occasional visit from wildlife. They ensure data flows continuously via satellite to Vienna.

After one infrastructure reconstruction, we found two large goannas wrapped around a seismometer, having decided to spend their nights in the firm embrace of our equipment. You don’t learn about this kind of challenge in Vienna’s United Nations offices.

Metal devices on red soil
Detectors at Warramunga. Hrvoje Tkalčić, CC BY

From Canberra, I coordinate between the on-site team, the Australian government, and our partners at the CTBTO. At least once a year, I make the drive up the Stuart Highway to Warramunga, checking equipment and discussing challenges with the technicians.

I also meet regularly with colleagues at the United Nations in Vienna. Managing this facility means bridging two worlds: the practical realities of maintaining sensitive equipment in a harsh environment and the international diplomacy of nuclear verification.

Why it matters now

For more than 30 years, the world has observed a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing. The last US test was in 1992. Russia’s was in 1990.

This norm has been crucial in limiting nuclear weapons development. Verification systems such as Warramunga make this possible, because would-be violators know any significant nuclear explosion will be detected.

But this system faces its greatest challenge in decades. In October 2025, President Donald Trump announced the United States would begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China.

Days later, President Vladimir Putin directed Russian officials to prepare for possible nuclear tests. If this moratorium collapses, it opens the door to a new era of nuclear arms racing.

This is when verification becomes most crucial. The CTBTO’s network doesn’t just detect violations – its existence deters them. If the world knows a country has carried out a nuclear test and tried (but failed) to hide it, the testing country will face political consequences.

A hidden contribution

Warramunga’s data also helps researchers understand earthquakes, study Earth’s deep interior, such as the solid inner core, and track phenomena from meteorite impacts to Morning Glory clouds – extraordinary atmospheric waves travelling 1,400km from Cape York, first scientifically documented with Warramunga’s infrasonic array in the 1970s.

What strikes me after nearly two decades is how this unique partnership represents a remarkable example of academic institutions contributing directly to global security.

Few people realise that a university research school operates one of the world’s most crucial nuclear verification facilities. It’s an arrangement that brings together fundamental scientific research with practical obligations under international treaties – a model for how researchers can engage with pressing global challenges.

As nuclear rhetoric intensifies globally, the quiet technical work in the Australian outback gains new significance. Nuclear test monitoring is essential to deter would-be nuclear nations – and that’s a mission worth maintaining, even from the remote red centre of Australia.The Conversation

Hrvoje Tkalčić, Professor, Head of Geophysics, Director of Warramunga Array, Australian National University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Saturday, 12 March 2022

The Ukrainian Armed Forces - outnumbered but still lethal

                                                                                                Shutterstock

Ukraine's armed forces may be small by comparison with their Russian counterparts, however they have lethal capabilities and after seven years of battling insurgency in the two breakaway provinces, a level of combat experience has been gained.

Ukraine to its great credit could have had nuclear weapons but discarded these lethal weapons many years ago. These weapons were part of the Soviet arsenal but the Ukraine decided to have them dismantled at part of the arms control treaty.

A brief comparison of key categories of assets in the armed forces of both countries is provided below drawn from various sources including the European Union.

Military assets

         Russia

          Ukraine

 

Personnel

Active

Reserves

 

 

1,154,000

2,000,000

 

 

255,000

1,000,000

 

Army and other land forces

Armoured vehicles

Tanks

Artillery

Self-propelled artillery

Rocket launchers

 

 

26,831

12,270

18,497

6,500

4,350

 

 

6,990

2,105

3,721

1,040

630

 

Air Force

Fighters

Multirole aircraft

Attack aircraft

Helicopters

Combat drones

 

 

5,550

832

870

1,720

30

 

 

70

0

29

120

12

 

Navy

Aircraft carrier

Destroyers

Frigates

Corvettes

Submarines

 

 

 

1

18

11

83

55+

 

 

0

0

1

0

0

Military budgets 2020


$ 61.7B

$ 5.9B

Russia dwarfs the Ukraine in every form of military asset capability except the critical one: morale and commitment to defend one's homeland. After two weeks of war, the Ukrainians have demonstrated the willingness and capacity to defend their country.

Monday, 28 February 2022

Russia and war with the Ukraine - Putin's Pronouncement

 Vladimir Putin - Shutterstock
 
Like an old-style Soviet autocrat, former KGB Lieutenant-Colonel and long serving president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin has initiated the war with the Ukraine. The decision was made solely by Putin without just cause and seemingly not supported by the Russian people at large. A largely symbolic vote by the Russian Parliament (the Duma) to recognise the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk did not include authorising war against the Ukraine. Significant and large protests across Russian cities and towns bear witness to the opposition to Putin's war.

Putin has variously been described in the media as madman, delusional, various other colourful descriptions and compared to either Hitler or Stalin. This reaction however largely obscures the informed analysis of his views provided by foreign affairs commentators and Russian political analysts. The fundamental core of Putin's decision remains his oft-stated view of what Russia lost with the disintegration of the former Soviet Union. He has always maintained that this event was a disaster and as a consequence he has sought to seemingly reverse the loss of prestige, territory, power and influence for Russia. This is largely at the expense of countries within Russia's historical sphere of influence and is very much the perspective of a former KGB officer.

Putin's views were again clearly demonstrated in the recorded meeting of Russia's Security Council on 22 February 2022. At this staged meeting, Putin commented on the Russian empire (whatever that is) and variously claimed the Ukraine was a colony with a puppet regime, was created by Lenin, was acquiring nuclear weapons and that the Russian and Ukrainian were actually one people and hence it should not exist. Putin has also commented that he does not want countries that join NATO to be the immediate neighbours to Russia itself.

Even Putin's intelligence chief and long term associate from the KGB days, Sergei Natyshkin was left stumbling and unsure what to say as Putin insisted he provide a full endorsement of the direction being taken. 

Putin operates with a flawed understanding of what action other countries may take. He has probably estimated that -
  • NATO is unlikely to directly confront Russia and it will not fight for the Ukraine.
  • Western sanctions can be weathered and have been factored into his calculations on the risks for  Russia in this conflict
  • Russia has prepared for this war with modernising its Armed Forces and building significant foreign reserves to enable some level of protection from Western sanctions.
Within Russia's own intelligentsia and military commentators, there is little actual concern about NATO and the perceived threat which Putin alludes to. This is Putin's war with at worst only vague support amongst the Russian people and at best, the FSB (the successor organisation to the KGB), the breakaway provinces and senior officers in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. It is however hard to measure given the level of suppression of any public opinion in Russia.

Friday, 23 April 2021

ANZAC Day - 25 April 2021

                                                                                                    Shutterstock

ANZAC Day and the sacrifice of the servicemen and women in time of war and conflict becomes momentarily, centre-stage. According to the Australian War Memorial, a total of 102,911 Australians have lost their lives as a result of service with Australian units since 1885. The range of wars, police actions, regional conflicts and disaster recovery is diverse in scale and duration as demonstrated below. The dates of the conflicts and actions are adjusted as many service personal died later as a result of their injuries or as a result of post war reconstruction activities such as occupation forces or mine and ordinance clearance.

Conflict

Dates

Mortalities

Sudan

1885

9

South Africa

1899-1902

589

China

1900-1901

6

First World War

1914-1921

61,605

Second World War

1939-1947

39,654

Australia: bomb removal

Japan – Occupation force

1947-1950

1947-1952

4

3

Papua and New Guinea

1947-1975

13

Middle East (UNSTO)

1948

1

Berlin Airlift

1948-1949

1

Malayan Emergency

1948-1960

39

Kashmir – UN observer

1948-1985

1

Korean War

1950-1953

340

Malta

1952-1955

3

Korean War – Armistice

1953-1957

16

Southeast Asia (SEATO)

1955-1975

10

Indonesian Confrontation

1962-1966

22

Malayan Peninsula

1964-1966

2

Vietnam War

1962-1975

521

Thailand

1965-1968

2

Irian Jaya

1976-1981

1

Western Sahara (MINURSO)

1991-1994

1

Somalia

1992-1994

1

Bougainville

1997-2003

1

East Timor

1997-2003

4

Afghanistan

2001 - present

43

Iraq

2003-2013

4

Solomon Island (RAMSI)

2003-2013

1

Indonesia (Sumatra Assist)

2005

9

Fiji

2006

2


Lest we forget

Saturday, 15 August 2020

75 Years on - Victory over Japan remembered

Australian Womens Army Service, New Guinea, 15 August 1945 (c) AWM

For Australia the 15th of August 2020 marks 75 years since the Victory over Japan (referred to as VJ Day) or Victory in the Pacific (or VP Day) and the end of World War II. Japan accepted the Allies demand for unconditional surrender and with the war with Germany already concluded, Word War II was at an end.

The war in the Pacific had been particularly cruel for Australia with over 22,000 Australian sbecoming prisoners of the Japanese. These comprised 21,000 from the Australian Army, 354 from the Royal Australian Navy and 373 from the Royal Australian Air Force. 40 nurses were also captured and hundreds of civilians placed into internment camps. Prisoners of War were formed into work partes to provide forced labour for the Imperial Japanese Army including the notorious Burma Railroad.

8,031 of the 22,376 Australian prisoners of war captured by the Japanese died in captivity leading to War Crimes Tribunals at the conclusion of the war that investigated the many reports of massacres and atrocities committed by the Japanese forces.

Australian fallen being exhumed for reinterment in the Wewak Military Cemetery 1945 (c) AWM

Friday, 24 April 2020

Lest we forget - ANZAC Day 2020

                                                                                               Shutterstock
As ANZAC Day dawns with a change in custom due to COVID-19, nonetheless the opportunity to reflect on the sacrifices made by those who have served in the Armed Forces particularly during wartime remains as valid as ever. While much of the ritual elements of ANZAC Day find their origins on the battlefields of the First World War, particularly Gallipoli and the Western Front, the contribution of the Second World War is just as poignant.

Australia's casualties in WWII were 39,655 killed or died as a result of their injuries during the period from 3 September 1939 until 30 June 1947. World War II ended in Europe on 7 May 1945 with Germany's surrender and in the Pacific on 14 August 1945 with Japan's surrender. Over 30,000 Australian service personnel were taken prisoner by the Axis Forces of which two-thirds of these were captives taken by the Japanese during the first weeks of their advance through south-east Asia in 1942. 36 per cent of all Australian prisoners died in the captivity of the Japanese.

It was during the American Civil War, that Union General, William Tecumseh Sherman made the oft used quote that has been repeated many times in various forms:  "War is hell... war is cruelty and you cannot refine it".

Lest we forget.

Thursday, 25 April 2019

Anzac Day 2019

Australian War Memorial: Ambulances with wounded members, 9th Division, Adelaide 1943
On  25th April, as Australia commemorates and remembers those members of the community who served during various armed conflicts, particularly the fallen on the battlefield, there is also the need to recognise the many often badly wounded who survived the conflicts. Suffering either physical injuries or psychological effects or both for the rest of their lives, they often constitute twice the number compared to those lost in action.

During the First World War 1914-18, Australia's population was less than 5 million of which 416,809 men enlisted to serve. Of these 60,000 were killed, and 156,000 wounded, gassed or taken prisoner. The casualties and POWs combined constituted 51% of the Australian Imperial Force (AIF). A staggering number.

In the Second World War 1939-45, Australia had 993,000 serving in the armed forces from a population of 6.9 million. Of these 27,073 were killed in action or died with 23,477 wounded and 30,560 taken as prisoners of war. Of the POWs, 8,296 died in captivity mainly in Japanese camps.

Lest we forget.

Anzac Cove 1915: Wounded being transferred to Hospital ship Gascon

Sunday, 11 November 2018

100 years on - The Armistice of 1918

British troops arrive in Cologne following the Armistice 1918
The Armistice to cease hostilities between the Central Powers and the Allies came into effect at 11 am  on the 11th November 1918 however it had only been signed by representatives at 5 am that same day. On that final morning prior to 11am slightly over 10,000 were still killed in conflict as commanders, mainly Allied, sought to gain territory prior to the cessation of hostilities. The Armistice had to be extended three more times until a peace treaty was finally concluded on 10 January 1920 with the Treaty of Versailles.

The cost for Australia in terms of lives lost in World War 1 was very high:
  • 416,809 enlisted
  • 62,000 killed
  • 156,000 wounded
It would only be twenty-one years later than another World War would commence.

Lest we forget.