Update on H1N1

The recent information on the spread of swine flu indicates that the new virus is dominating over the existing main flu virus H3N2. More than 98% of the flu cases genotyped in the US during June 2009 were swine flu and a similar statistic exists for the state of Victoria in Australia where 99% of all flu cases which were genotyped were H1N1. A similar results exists for Argentina and Chile where over 90% of cases of flu were found to be swine flu. There are also indications that Tamiflu resistant swine flu has already evolved although at this stage, the number of cases is very small.

Forty years on... the Earth from afar

July 21, 2009 marks the 40th anniversary of the lunar landing of Apollo 11 with the first human beings to walk on Earth's nearest natural satellite. Neil Alden Armstrong (Commander), Edward Eugene Aldrin, Jr (lunar module pilot) landed in the lunar module while Michael Collins (command module pilot) remained in orbit in the Command Module. Many of the photographic images from that first landing have now become historical and iconic in their own right, none less than "Earthrise" (above) which shows the distant little blue planet which is home as seen from the moon.

As the planet now confronts the challenges of the environment, climate change and declining ecosystems, the image taken from Apollo 11 and the realisation of the fragility and smallness of the Planet Earth which the astronauts felt at the time, appears all the more prescient.

Climate Change and Sea levels - rising how far?

New Scientist (July 2009) has outlined various new estimates concerning sea levels rising at a rate and speed greater than the forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report. The IPCC had forecast a sea level rise of between 19 and 59 centimetres by 2100 but the report did exclude any rapid dynamic changes in ice flow in future years. The consensus now is that the IPCC estimates were far too optimistic. By far the most immediate contributor to sea level changes is the melting of glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica, Alaska to the Himalayas. Of particular note, is the number of sources for rising sea levels which demonstrate that warmer temperatures have different impacts not just the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The second observation is the degree to which ocean levels have already been rising for several decades.

New modelling indicates that the sea will in fact rise by 80 centimetres by 2100 and will continue rising beyond that date. For many parts of the world at zero elevation from sea level such as most Pacific Island groups, Bangladesh, Holland and many coastal strips in larger continents, the impact will be felt within this century. Sea levels will render heavily populated coastal land strips as unmanageable and unliveable. That sea levels will rise is an inescapable fact even with a reduction in greehouse gas emissions although the rate and degree can be influenced by CO2 reduction.

Planning for mass population relocation may be an unpalatable but essential reality of existence on planet Earth. Are Governments up to this challenge?

Bubble and Squeak - Methane a new energy source?

With the constant pressure to find alternative energy sources to reduce reliance on environmentally damaging coal fired generators and other fossil fuels, attention has turned to the high concentrations of methane which are found in various countries. In particular methane clathrate has become a favoured possible alternative energy source. Methane clathrate consists of molecules of methane trapped within ice crystals. With an appearance similar to dirty ice and a sorbet-like consistency, the application of heat rapidly ignites methane clathrates which omit about half as much carbon dioxide as burning coal.

Large deposits of methane clathrates can be found throughout the world in Central America, Japan, India, Alaska and Siberia both in permafrost and under the Ocean. The technology for extracting this energy source is still experimental and with methane clathrates lodged in fragile ice crystals, the safety and economic viability is in question. Also the methane molecule is twenty times as powerful as CO2 in warming the air. With rising sea temperatures, it would take little to release ocean clathrate reserves into the atmosphere.