COP 15 Agreement

The summary of resolutions from COP 15 shows in effect only a cursory series of agreements and not sufficient to combat carbon emissions in the degree necessary.  Further negotiations will occur in the next year so it is hoped that these may produce more tangible results.

GLOBAL WARMING ‘‘should be (kept) below two degrees Celsius’’, says the draft. But it does not identify a year by which carbon emissions should peak, a position resisted by emerging giants. Countries are asked to spell out by February 1 next year their pledges for curbing carbon emissions by 2020. The deal does not spell out penalties for any country that fails to meet its promise.

FUNDS: Rich countries are pledging $US10 billion in the three years from 2010-2012 to help poor countries tackle climate change. They also set the goal of ‘‘mobilising jointly’’ $US100 billion a year by 2020, drawn from ‘‘a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance.’’

VERIFICATION: The pledges of rich countries will come ‘‘under rigorous, robust and transparent’’ scrutiny under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Developing countries will submit national reports on their emissions pledges under a method ‘‘that will ensure that national sovereignty is respected.’’ Pledges on mitigation measures that require international support will be recorded in a registry.

MID-CENTURY TARGETS: The text does not endorse the goal of halving the global output of carbon pollution by mid-century, an objective many rich countries endorse. Emerging giants mainly China and India have said they are unwilling to back such a target.

LEGALLY-BINDING TREATY: There is no deadline for transforming the objectives outlined in the accord into a legally-binding treaty. It had been widely expected that the text would call for a treaty to be finalised before the end of 2010.

Climate Change - an agreement too far?

As COP 15 concludes, the rest of the World will be left wondering exactly what has been achieved at a conference which has been marked by hostility and division notwithstanding the expected grandstanding and neogiating stances taken by delegates, environment ministers and Heads of State. The deal going forward for the consideration of the 190 countries attending the Climate Change Conference is to try to limit global warming to 2 degrees C but contains no targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions and is not a binding deal. The alternative to this very mild platform was to have the conference collapse into chaos yet with indications that the global environment is going to heat by 3 degrees C , this approach will be too little to effectively mitigate against changes already underway. On the basis that some agreement is better than no agreement at all COP15, has been successful in some key measures of reaching an understanding that action is needed. The devil, as always, is in the detail and key aspects such as the level of $ in the climate change fund, verification of reduction in emissions and a binding agreement remain glaring missing items.

COP 15 Negotiations - Initial Rounds

The 15th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) is underway at the Bella Centre in Copenhagen running from the 7th to the 18th of December, 2009.

With fierce debate in progress at COP 15, its opportune to reflect that more than half of global carbon pollution comes from developing countries rather than the developed part of the world and hence both segments must contribute in real terms to efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change. Developing countries led by emerging giants China, India and Brazil are the most significant CO2 emitters, and the proportion of carbon pollution from these sources is set to rise as their high-population economies grow.

Not surprisingly, the 42-member Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes the vocal island nation of Tuvalu, and the bloc of mainly African Least Developed Countries, have rejected the widely held goal of keeping global temperatures from rising more than 2.0 degrees Celsius stating that this target is manifestly inadequate.

In their estimation only a cap of 1.5 C compared to pre-industrial times would give their nations a chance of fighting off rising seas or crippling drought. The reality is their position is fairly sound and without ambitious targets both with agreement and adherence, the opportunity for averting a major shift in climate will be lost.

The World's Environmental Tipping Point

In December this year one of the most critical international conferences to be held in the last two centuries will take place. The sessions (COP 15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will bring together the Parties of the Convention and Observer States (Governments), the United Nations System and observer organizations duly admitted by the Conference of the Parties (as the convention refers to the signatories). The conference, amongst many challenges will need to find agreement between Governments on greenhouse gas emissions, carbon level reductions, renewable energy and a range of related issues. There is little doubt or disagreement regarding the science, the need for action nor the urgency for such action. The question is one of which countries are prepared to start taking the necessary steps first and lead the way if necessary.

This in no way removes or alters the basic core issue which remains the need for all nations to contribute action not just the developed nations or the developing nations. This poses some highly uncomfortable challenges in defining economic activity and growth; re-engineering power production away from coal-fired generators and into cleaner energy generation being one such critical event.