Climate change - the value of tropical forests in controlling temperature

Tropical forest - Shutterstock

Most research and published articles on forests and global warming focus on the capacity for carbon sequestration as well as current retained levels of carbon within the forests. This is particularly relevant when considering the climate effects that occur when forest cover, structure and composition change as a result of deforestation. However there are more factors to consider with the role of tropical forests than just carbon sequestration.

Scientists from the University of Virginia, USA, the Woodrell Climate Research Centre, USA and the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, Colombia have published compelling research this year on the role of tropical forests in regulating temperature, environment and removal of CO2 emissions. Forests are responsible for much of the carbon removal together with terrestrial ecosystems which amount in total to 29 % of annual carbon emissions. As the researchers have commented "the biophysical effects of forest cover can contribute significantly to solving local adaptation challenges, such as extreme heat and flooding, at any latitude. The carbon benefits of forests at any latitude contribute meaningfully to global climate mitigation".

Key aspects of the report have found -

• forests contain over 800 PgC (petagrams of carbon) almost as much as currently stored in the atmosphere,
• tropical forests have one of the fastest carbon sequestration rates per unit land area,
• forests impact on climate directly through controls on three main biophysical mechanisms: albedo (the fraction of light that a surface reflects), evapotranspiration (ET) and canopy roughness, 
• in the tropics, where ET and roughness are dominant biophysical drivers, forests cool the lower atmosphere and provide water vapour to support cloud formation,
• forests partition incoming solar radiation between latent heat and sensible heat: "Deep roots and high leaf area make forests very efficient at moving water from the land surface to the atmosphere via ET, producing latent heat. Thus beneath the forest canopy, the sensible heat flux and associated surface temperature are relatively low especiually the gorwing season when ET is high",
• the role of forests in maintaining critical habitat for biodiversity is well known but there is now new research on extinction that "confirms the role of forests in maintaining critical climates to support biodiversity. Changes in maximum temperature are driving extinction not changes in average temperature",
• forests minimise risks due to drought associated with heat extremes. "A combination of deep roots, high water use efficiency and high surface roughness allow trees to continue transpiring during drought conditions and thus to dissipate heat and convey moisture to the atmosphere'' 

The full research article can be accessed at this link: Deforestation: biophysical effects on climate

After the pandemic working from home remains the new norm

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Over the past two years, employers and business groups have, by necessity of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, needed to adjust  their work models to incorporate a new hybrid of on-worksite attendance by employees and working-from-home. As part of the process, numerous surveys have been conducted by employers and management consultancies as to what the future may look like. One of these research projects by PriceWaterhouse Coopers found the preferences of the Australian workforce to be distributed thus -

• 16 % a wholly virtual workplace
• 25 % mostly virtual work with some face-to-face
• 35 % a mix of face-to-face and virtual work
• 10 % a traditional face-to-face work environment
• 14 % mostly face-to-face with some remote working 

What is clear from research into the new world of work and employment is that the proverbial genie is out of the bottle with the benefits of working from home now becoming crystal clear for much of the workforce. Simply returning to the office full-time is no longer sufficient for employees and working flexibly is the order of the day.

ASX listed companies Annual General Meetings - first strikes continued in 2022

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The Australian Corporations Act 2001 was amended in 2011 to strengthen the accountability and transparency of Australia’s executive remuneration framework and enable shareholders to have more power over the pay of company directors and executives by establishing the ‘two strikes’ rule. The rule means that boards face being spilled if they suffer shareholder votes of more than 25 % against their executive pay proposals at two consecutive company annual general meetings.

The ‘first strike’ occurs where a company’s remuneration report receives a ‘no’ vote of 25% at its AGM (the first AGM). Where this occurs, the company’s remuneration report put to the next year’s AGM must include an explanation of the board’s proposed action in response to the ‘no’ vote or an explanation of why no action has been taken.

The ‘second strike’ occurs where the company’s remuneration report for the next year’s AGM then receives a ‘no’ vote of 25 per cent or more. 

In that case, shareholders will vote at that AGM to determine whether the directors will need to stand for re-election. If this spill resolution passes with a majority of eligible votes cast, then a ‘spill’ meeting will take place within 90 days. A company will still need to provide the minimum notice period for holding a meeting, as required by the Corporations Act. A company will also need to comply with any minimum notice period set out in its constitution for the nomination of candidates for the board. This will ensure that shareholder nominated candidates can seek endorsement at the ‘spill’ meeting.

In 2022, a number of prominent Australian companies distinguished themselves with first 'strike' votes against their remuneration reports as listed below. The reasons for the negative votes were various but essentially involved remuneration being sought which was out-of proportion to the performance of the company. For example, the Board of AGL had presided over a disasterous proposed company restructure that demolished shareholder value and which ultimately had to be abandoned.

Company name	Strike vote %
Santos	25.32%
Cleanaway	25.49%
Goodman Group	28.91%
The Star Entertainment Group	30.11%
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)	30.52%
Link Administration Services	30.66%
AGL Energy	30.69%
Newcrest Mining	36.40%
GUD Holdings Ltd	41.10%
Blackmores	43.35%

In 2023, hopefully companies will ensure their remuneration does not exceed their performance.

New year 2023

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The new year beckons. 2023 will no doubt follow a similar pathway to the very difficult sequence of recent years since COVID-19 first appeared thereafter being followed by a serious military conflict in Europe. The resultant compounding impact on world economies has led to central banks in established economies warning of a strong likelihood of a world-wide recession in 2023. The year ahead promises to provide a serious challenge for people across the world as summarised below -

• The global economy continues to contract with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2022 reducing its global growth forecast from 2023 to 2.7%, compared to a 2.9% forecast in July, amid combined pressures from the war in Ukraine, high energy and food prices, inflation and sharply higher interest rates. The IMF has warned that conditions could worsen significantly during 2023. Most of the professional investment firms and funds agree and have continued to hold large cash reserves.

• The Russian - Ukrainian war, initiated by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin commenced on 24 February 2022 and has now continued for over 10 months with no resolution in sight. The Ukrainian government and the country's armed forces have held their ground with Western military assistance and continue to do so. The impact of this conflict has been felt across the world and far beyond Europe's borders.

• COVID-19 continues to pose a threat despite the development of capable vaccines including new generation mRNA ones. The sudden opening-up of China in December 2022 after a high level of restrictions through the country, coupled with low vaccination rates and poorly performing locally produced vaccines has seen staggering infection rates in that country. The risk of new variants arising in China being a key concern of the World Health Organisation. China has now ceased publishing data on infection rates.

         The WHO COVID dashboard can be accessed at this link: WHO - COVID 19 dashboard

• Climate change and global warming will remain in the centre of critical issues to combat as extreme weather events remain a threat world-wide. 2023 will be no different.

Despite these challenges, may 2023 be a year of success and health for you.

COP27 - achievements were lacking despite declared intentions

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COP27 has come and gone but what were the results from this latest Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ? Sadly it appears concrete steps and progress once again were lacking. The overall verdict is that governments have failed to gain traction in speed, scale and sustainability to prevent significant climate change from occuring.

COP27 is notable for finally recognising that compensation and funding is needed for vulnerable developing countries with the creation of a loss and damage fund. Around $100B per annum is needed for this fund however how this will be achieved is also unclear. The fund is largely an undefined responsibility with key nations such as China declining to contribute.

Of considerable concern from the latest COP is that countries have failed to adopt adequate mitigation and adpatation policies. There was no sign at COP27 of the actual practical agreed steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support adaptation needs.

In a research note, international consultancy firm Deloittes, noted for Australia "...commentators quickly pointed out that despite a new commitment to slash emissions, we remain one of the world's top exporters of coal and gas and have not committed to ending new projects or providing a clear plan to halt fossil fuel subsidies. COP31 will certainly be a test for Australia".

Christmas 2022

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Christmas - a time for joy, sharing and for many, a time of expressing faith. It can also be a difficult point in the year for those experiencing hardship, isolation and/or the loss of someone close.

 

The festive season is represented by many images some of which find their origins in other festivals grounded in pagan periods of history. The Christmas tree is one of these images and practices. Although its generally agreed that the current form comes from 16th Century Germany and there is a relationship between Christmas trees and the 'tree of paradise' in medieval plays, the origin is more nuanced than these commemorations. The use of evergreen wreaths in symbolism can also be found in the Roman period in the mid-Winter festival of Saturnalia. Various other non-Christian cultures in Northern Europe also worshipped trees also using evergreens to dispel evil presences during Winter. In reality the Christmas tree is something of a synthesis over time between various beliefs.

As 2022 comes to an end, compliments of the season wherever you reside.

State of the Climate Report 2022 - temperature graphs

(c) BOM/CSIRO

(c) BOM/CSIRO

Climate change - the escalating risk of methane from the melting Arctic permafrost

Permafrost melt lake - Above Arctic Circle, Canada - Shutterstock

While much of the focus on limiting greenhouse gas emissions is rightly focussed on carbon dioxide, increasing attention is being paid to another an equally concerning threat - the increasing levels of methane gas being emitted from the melting permafrost found in the Arctic areas of the planet.

The need for monitoring of this evolving and increasing source of greenhouse gases and its potential impact could not be more stark not the least for the risk of a feedback loop. A feedback loop would occur where the planet commences a phase of unstoppable warming as greenhouse gases continue to increase global warming which in turn increased more greenhouse gas emissions which again increases global warming. This is a nightmare scenario.

The Arctic Circle and its permafrost is one such risk. The permafrost is melting and releasing increasing levels of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas.

In summary -

• Methane is a greenhouse gas with a potency around 20 times the warming power of carbon dioxide.
• Large quantities of methane is locked into the permafrost of the Arctic Circle. Permafrost measures around 23 million square kilometres of land surface comprising 85% of Alaska and near 50% of Canada and Russia.
• Permafrost originates from the Ice Ages when glaciers and ice sheets covered large tracks of the planet's surface. Over tens of thousands of years, rocks were ground into a form of substance called 'glacial flour'  by the ice with plants and animals becoming part of the mix in the permafrost layers. When the glaciers and ice sheets retreated, this semi frozen layer was left behind. Measurements of permafrost have found detected deposits up to 1,500 metres thick aand overall it is estimated that 1.7 trillion tonnes of carbon are trapped in them.
• Permafrost supports vast tracts of forests more than twice the size of the Amazon rainforest. These evergreen forests are effectively a carbon sink capturing more carbon from the atmosphere than is released by ther melting permafrost. This is now changing and some regions of forest are now releasing more carbon than they are absorbing.
• The actual source of greenhouse gases in the permafrost are frozen microbes that are entombed. As the permafrost melts the microbes begin to consume plant and animal remnants around them releasing greenhouse gases. Where the microbes are located in mainly dry territory with access to oxygen, they emit mainly carbon dioxide. However where they are in water with no oxygen, they emit methane. 

The evidence of increasing emissions is already available. In the Yenisey-Khatanga Basin in Siberia, temperatures in 2020 were 11 degrees Fahrenheit about average and limestone rock formations commenced releasing ancient methane deposits. 

The IPCC reports and models do not include permafrost methane emissions due to the uncertainty and difficulty of measuring this source of greenhouse gas. Yet this critical risk may yet upend most climate change projections.

Information for this post has been drawn from: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2015; Nature.