Climate change - the value of tropical forests in controlling temperature

Tropical forest - Shutterstock

Most research and published articles on forests and global warming focus on the capacity for carbon sequestration as well as current retained levels of carbon within the forests. This is particularly relevant when considering the climate effects that occur when forest cover, structure and composition change as a result of deforestation. However there are more factors to consider with the role of tropical forests than just carbon sequestration.

Scientists from the University of Virginia, USA, the Woodrell Climate Research Centre, USA and the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, Colombia have published compelling research this year on the role of tropical forests in regulating temperature, environment and removal of CO2 emissions. Forests are responsible for much of the carbon removal together with terrestrial ecosystems which amount in total to 29 % of annual carbon emissions. As the researchers have commented "the biophysical effects of forest cover can contribute significantly to solving local adaptation challenges, such as extreme heat and flooding, at any latitude. The carbon benefits of forests at any latitude contribute meaningfully to global climate mitigation".

Key aspects of the report have found -

• forests contain over 800 PgC (petagrams of carbon) almost as much as currently stored in the atmosphere,
• tropical forests have one of the fastest carbon sequestration rates per unit land area,
• forests impact on climate directly through controls on three main biophysical mechanisms: albedo (the fraction of light that a surface reflects), evapotranspiration (ET) and canopy roughness, 
• in the tropics, where ET and roughness are dominant biophysical drivers, forests cool the lower atmosphere and provide water vapour to support cloud formation,
• forests partition incoming solar radiation between latent heat and sensible heat: "Deep roots and high leaf area make forests very efficient at moving water from the land surface to the atmosphere via ET, producing latent heat. Thus beneath the forest canopy, the sensible heat flux and associated surface temperature are relatively low especiually the gorwing season when ET is high",
• the role of forests in maintaining critical habitat for biodiversity is well known but there is now new research on extinction that "confirms the role of forests in maintaining critical climates to support biodiversity. Changes in maximum temperature are driving extinction not changes in average temperature",
• forests minimise risks due to drought associated with heat extremes. "A combination of deep roots, high water use efficiency and high surface roughness allow trees to continue transpiring during drought conditions and thus to dissipate heat and convey moisture to the atmosphere'' 

The full research article can be accessed at this link: Deforestation: biophysical effects on climate

After the pandemic working from home remains the new norm

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Over the past two years, employers and business groups have, by necessity of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, needed to adjust  their work models to incorporate a new hybrid of on-worksite attendance by employees and working-from-home. As part of the process, numerous surveys have been conducted by employers and management consultancies as to what the future may look like. One of these research projects by PriceWaterhouse Coopers found the preferences of the Australian workforce to be distributed thus -

• 16 % a wholly virtual workplace
• 25 % mostly virtual work with some face-to-face
• 35 % a mix of face-to-face and virtual work
• 10 % a traditional face-to-face work environment
• 14 % mostly face-to-face with some remote working 

What is clear from research into the new world of work and employment is that the proverbial genie is out of the bottle with the benefits of working from home now becoming crystal clear for much of the workforce. Simply returning to the office full-time is no longer sufficient for employees and working flexibly is the order of the day.

ASX listed companies Annual General Meetings - first strikes continued in 2022

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The Australian Corporations Act 2001 was amended in 2011 to strengthen the accountability and transparency of Australia’s executive remuneration framework and enable shareholders to have more power over the pay of company directors and executives by establishing the ‘two strikes’ rule. The rule means that boards face being spilled if they suffer shareholder votes of more than 25 % against their executive pay proposals at two consecutive company annual general meetings.

The ‘first strike’ occurs where a company’s remuneration report receives a ‘no’ vote of 25% at its AGM (the first AGM). Where this occurs, the company’s remuneration report put to the next year’s AGM must include an explanation of the board’s proposed action in response to the ‘no’ vote or an explanation of why no action has been taken.

The ‘second strike’ occurs where the company’s remuneration report for the next year’s AGM then receives a ‘no’ vote of 25 per cent or more. 

In that case, shareholders will vote at that AGM to determine whether the directors will need to stand for re-election. If this spill resolution passes with a majority of eligible votes cast, then a ‘spill’ meeting will take place within 90 days. A company will still need to provide the minimum notice period for holding a meeting, as required by the Corporations Act. A company will also need to comply with any minimum notice period set out in its constitution for the nomination of candidates for the board. This will ensure that shareholder nominated candidates can seek endorsement at the ‘spill’ meeting.

In 2022, a number of prominent Australian companies distinguished themselves with first 'strike' votes against their remuneration reports as listed below. The reasons for the negative votes were various but essentially involved remuneration being sought which was out-of proportion to the performance of the company. For example, the Board of AGL had presided over a disasterous proposed company restructure that demolished shareholder value and which ultimately had to be abandoned.

Company name	Strike vote %
Santos	25.32%
Cleanaway	25.49%
Goodman Group	28.91%
The Star Entertainment Group	30.11%
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)	30.52%
Link Administration Services	30.66%
AGL Energy	30.69%
Newcrest Mining	36.40%
GUD Holdings Ltd	41.10%
Blackmores	43.35%

In 2023, hopefully companies will ensure their remuneration does not exceed their performance.

New year 2023

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The new year beckons. 2023 will no doubt follow a similar pathway to the very difficult sequence of recent years since COVID-19 first appeared thereafter being followed by a serious military conflict in Europe. The resultant compounding impact on world economies has led to central banks in established economies warning of a strong likelihood of a world-wide recession in 2023. The year ahead promises to provide a serious challenge for people across the world as summarised below -

• The global economy continues to contract with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2022 reducing its global growth forecast from 2023 to 2.7%, compared to a 2.9% forecast in July, amid combined pressures from the war in Ukraine, high energy and food prices, inflation and sharply higher interest rates. The IMF has warned that conditions could worsen significantly during 2023. Most of the professional investment firms and funds agree and have continued to hold large cash reserves.

• The Russian - Ukrainian war, initiated by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin commenced on 24 February 2022 and has now continued for over 10 months with no resolution in sight. The Ukrainian government and the country's armed forces have held their ground with Western military assistance and continue to do so. The impact of this conflict has been felt across the world and far beyond Europe's borders.

• COVID-19 continues to pose a threat despite the development of capable vaccines including new generation mRNA ones. The sudden opening-up of China in December 2022 after a high level of restrictions through the country, coupled with low vaccination rates and poorly performing locally produced vaccines has seen staggering infection rates in that country. The risk of new variants arising in China being a key concern of the World Health Organisation. China has now ceased publishing data on infection rates.

         The WHO COVID dashboard can be accessed at this link: WHO - COVID 19 dashboard

• Climate change and global warming will remain in the centre of critical issues to combat as extreme weather events remain a threat world-wide. 2023 will be no different.

Despite these challenges, may 2023 be a year of success and health for you.

COP27 - achievements were lacking despite declared intentions

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COP27 has come and gone but what were the results from this latest Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ? Sadly it appears concrete steps and progress once again were lacking. The overall verdict is that governments have failed to gain traction in speed, scale and sustainability to prevent significant climate change from occuring.

COP27 is notable for finally recognising that compensation and funding is needed for vulnerable developing countries with the creation of a loss and damage fund. Around $100B per annum is needed for this fund however how this will be achieved is also unclear. The fund is largely an undefined responsibility with key nations such as China declining to contribute.

Of considerable concern from the latest COP is that countries have failed to adopt adequate mitigation and adpatation policies. There was no sign at COP27 of the actual practical agreed steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support adaptation needs.

In a research note, international consultancy firm Deloittes, noted for Australia "...commentators quickly pointed out that despite a new commitment to slash emissions, we remain one of the world's top exporters of coal and gas and have not committed to ending new projects or providing a clear plan to halt fossil fuel subsidies. COP31 will certainly be a test for Australia".

Christmas 2022

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Christmas - a time for joy, sharing and for many, a time of expressing faith. It can also be a difficult point in the year for those experiencing hardship, isolation and/or the loss of someone close.

 

The festive season is represented by many images some of which find their origins in other festivals grounded in pagan periods of history. The Christmas tree is one of these images and practices. Although its generally agreed that the current form comes from 16th Century Germany and there is a relationship between Christmas trees and the 'tree of paradise' in medieval plays, the origin is more nuanced than these commemorations. The use of evergreen wreaths in symbolism can also be found in the Roman period in the mid-Winter festival of Saturnalia. Various other non-Christian cultures in Northern Europe also worshipped trees also using evergreens to dispel evil presences during Winter. In reality the Christmas tree is something of a synthesis over time between various beliefs.

As 2022 comes to an end, compliments of the season wherever you reside.

State of the Climate Report 2022 - temperature graphs

(c) BOM/CSIRO

(c) BOM/CSIRO

Climate change - the escalating risk of methane from the melting Arctic permafrost

Permafrost melt lake - Above Arctic Circle, Canada - Shutterstock

While much of the focus on limiting greenhouse gas emissions is rightly focussed on carbon dioxide, increasing attention is being paid to another an equally concerning threat - the increasing levels of methane gas being emitted from the melting permafrost found in the Arctic areas of the planet.

The need for monitoring of this evolving and increasing source of greenhouse gases and its potential impact could not be more stark not the least for the risk of a feedback loop. A feedback loop would occur where the planet commences a phase of unstoppable warming as greenhouse gases continue to increase global warming which in turn increased more greenhouse gas emissions which again increases global warming. This is a nightmare scenario.

The Arctic Circle and its permafrost is one such risk. The permafrost is melting and releasing increasing levels of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas.

In summary -

• Methane is a greenhouse gas with a potency around 20 times the warming power of carbon dioxide.
• Large quantities of methane is locked into the permafrost of the Arctic Circle. Permafrost measures around 23 million square kilometres of land surface comprising 85% of Alaska and near 50% of Canada and Russia.
• Permafrost originates from the Ice Ages when glaciers and ice sheets covered large tracks of the planet's surface. Over tens of thousands of years, rocks were ground into a form of substance called 'glacial flour'  by the ice with plants and animals becoming part of the mix in the permafrost layers. When the glaciers and ice sheets retreated, this semi frozen layer was left behind. Measurements of permafrost have found detected deposits up to 1,500 metres thick aand overall it is estimated that 1.7 trillion tonnes of carbon are trapped in them.
• Permafrost supports vast tracts of forests more than twice the size of the Amazon rainforest. These evergreen forests are effectively a carbon sink capturing more carbon from the atmosphere than is released by ther melting permafrost. This is now changing and some regions of forest are now releasing more carbon than they are absorbing.
• The actual source of greenhouse gases in the permafrost are frozen microbes that are entombed. As the permafrost melts the microbes begin to consume plant and animal remnants around them releasing greenhouse gases. Where the microbes are located in mainly dry territory with access to oxygen, they emit mainly carbon dioxide. However where they are in water with no oxygen, they emit methane. 

The evidence of increasing emissions is already available. In the Yenisey-Khatanga Basin in Siberia, temperatures in 2020 were 11 degrees Fahrenheit about average and limestone rock formations commenced releasing ancient methane deposits. 

The IPCC reports and models do not include permafrost methane emissions due to the uncertainty and difficulty of measuring this source of greenhouse gas. Yet this critical risk may yet upend most climate change projections.

Information for this post has been drawn from: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2015; Nature. 

Climate change - protecting marine life - the value of seagrass

Seagrass - Mediterranean - Shutterstock

 
Over the past decade increasing attention has been paid to the importance and value of ocean marine plants particularly seagrass meadows which flank every continent except Antarctica. Most of the research focus has been directed to the value of seagrass for biodiversity, healthy fish stocks and commensurately, the fishing industry itself.  The critical value of seagrass extends much further and its loss has a range of other impacts worldwide.

Some facts illustrate the critical value of seagrass -

• although it occupies a mere 0.1 % of the ocean floor, the seagrass beds hold around 10% of buried carbon and this marine plant buries carbon up to 35 times faster than tropical rainforests on land.
• this marine plant has evolved into 72 different species with a strong subterranean root system that provides a stabilising effect on coastlines as well as elevating the levels of sediment. This effect is useful for counteracting storm surges and floods by reducing wave energy and reducing water currents.
• with higher rates of carbon dioxide entering the oceans, seagrass has been found to counteract acidic seawater. Carbon dioxide in the ocean creates carbolic acid that dissolves the shells of coral, molluscs and similar organisms.
• meadows of seagrass have been found to create 'Neptune Balls' that are fibrous bundles of plastic items that float in the ocean. Seagrass traps, sorts and sieves microplastics into these bundles each year. Given the sheer scale and magnitude of plastic in the oceans, having a natural method for filtering out this dangerous material is, in fact, a no-brainer solution.

Alas as with so many natural wonders on planet Earth, seagrass itself is under threat and disappearing at a fast rate, around 7% a year by some calculations. 

State of the Climate Report 2022 - climate change continues to be mapped in Australia

BOM/CSIRO (c)

The latest State of the Climate Report for 2022 has been published by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) continuing the unequivocal evidence of climate change and the impact on weather that is becoming the normal for this continent. The findings in summary provide sober reading at best and a portent of what is to come in the years ahead -

• Temperature: Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910.
• Sea temperature: Sea surface temperatures have increased by an average of 1.05 °C since 1900. This has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events over land and sea. 
• Rainfall: There has been a decline of around 15 per cent in April to October rainfall in the southwest of Australia since 1970. Across the same region, May to July rainfall has seen the largest decrease, by around 19 per cent since 1970.
• There has been a decrease in streamflow at most gauges across Australia since 1975.
• Rainfall and streamflow have increased across parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.
• Fire: There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of the country since the 1950s.
• There has been a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region.
• Decrease in snow: Snow depth, snow cover and number of snow days have decreased in alpine regions since the late 1950s.
• Ocean acidification: Oceans around Australia are acidifying and have warmed by more than 1 °C since 1900, contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.
• Sea level rise: Sea levels are rising around Australia, including more frequent extremes that are increasing the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.

The Report can be accessed at this link:CSIRO - BOM State of the Climate 2022 Report

The Black Death - the plague that could rise again

                                            Yersinia pestis                                  Shutterstock

The pandemic of COVID-19 has focussed attention on the risks to humanity of acquiring zoonotic diseases (diseases from animals). Some earlier zoontic diseases that had plagued the human race through the ages seemingly disappeared but that is not the reality. They remain potent threats living in proximity to humans and always with the possibility of breaking out again. One of these bacterium is best known by the name it acquired in the Middle Ages - 'The Black Death' or in one of its forms, the Bubonic Plague.

The Black Death is a pathogen from the bacterium, Yersinia pestis (or Y pestis), and constantly circulates in a host of rodents such as rats, mice, marmots, gerbils, ground squirrels and similar species with the fleas coming from these rodents being the vector of transmission to humans. Being abundant and spread across the planet means eradication is not possible and every continent is affected except Australia.

Essentially the plague comes in three forms: the bubonic stage where the bacterium invades lymph nodes in the armpit, neck and groin causing unsightly dark swelling; the septicaemic stage where it spreads throughout the blood stream enabling the bacterium to be recycled back into parasites; and the pneumonic stage where the lungs are invaded and the plague can be passed from human to human through respiratory droplets inhaled from the air or from surfaces.

The plague struck fear throughout Europe and the Middle East during the Middle Ages from 541 AD through the 13th to 16th Centuries leaving an indelible mark on folk law and stories from those periods. It faded from view after that time with only sporadic outbreaks in distant countries but never completely disappeared. There was an outbreak in Madagascar in 2017 killing 202 people and infecting 2,348 in total with the World Health Organisation now deeming it a re-emerging disease. More concerningly blood samples taken from people in Madagascar and wild animals have displayed levels of antibiotic resistance to all current antibiotics.  An antibiotic resistant Y pestis is a development the world could do without.

Planet Earth - population 8 billion and counting in 2022

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In one day's time, the United Nations has forecast that the population of planet Earth will reach 8 billion people. This is a significant milestone but not one that automatically should solicit celebrations or enthusiasm. It is a staggering point to reach given the range of problems now confronting the planet whether through existing wars and famine or through the increasing impact of climate change across all countries.

Since 1975, the world's population has been increasing by about one billion people every eleven to twelve years. This fact is itself demonstrates the extraordinary change in food production, health services including disease control and improved sanitation whether or not variable countries. 

One of the lesser known facts however is how many people actually live outside the country in which they are born. It's only about 2 to 4 % over the past 50 to 60 years according to Dr Jennifer Sciubba, a political demographer for global consultancy,  McKinseys. In those countries with ageing populations and shrinking workforces, migration may not be enough to sustain current standards of living let alone manage the challenges ahead. Equally while migration was seen as the solution for economies, it was always in a measured predictable numerical form and one that did not enable systems to deal with sudden, large displacements of people such as from the Ukraine or Venezuela.

Will reaching a global population of 8 billion make anything easier ?

 

COP27 Egypt - as the climate changes the need for action becomes more urgent

As the 27th Council of the Parties (COP27) of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change") is well underway in Egypt, the warnings on the need for immediate action could not be starker. 

As the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, stated in his High Level Opening Address -

"We are in the fight of our lives.

And we are losing.

Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing.

Global temperatures keep rising.

And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible.

We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator"

Projections from the IPCC now show that temperatures will exceed 1.5C and will head to 2C.

The COP website can be reached at this link: Link to COP27

Opera Australia - Attila by Verdi - Opening Night

Attila - Taras Berezhansky   (c) Opera Australia 

Verdi's Attila is a lavish, large-scale production with strong elements of violence and war. Audiences will find its as much about Italian Nationalism as the vague romance around which much of the plot is constructed. Verdi's work has been described as 'thinly veiled argument for Italy's independence from Austria' and 'an out-and-out rallying cry for an independent, unified Italy' having been written around 1846.

The opera, in three Acts, tells the story of invasion of Roman Italy by Attila the Hun with the current version being moved from 5th Century Italy to fascist Italy of the 1930s. For that reason 'the Huns' look closer to German soldiers or the Gestapo than barbarians. The Italians similarly are portrayed in a manner closer to 20th Century partisans than actual Roman soldiers from that earlier era.

The storyline of the opera in summary: 

Odabella, the daughter of the Lord of the now destroyed town of Aquileia, has been captured by Attila's forces however he is impressed by her and gives her his own knife as a keepsake. The Roman general, Ezio seeks an audience with Attila to reach terms but is rebuffed. Meanwhile away from the town, Foresto who is engaged to Odabella is leading the refugees away from the destroyed town and plotting how to regroup. Foresto believes Odabella to be dead but on learning of her survival accuses her of betrayal which she denies and states that she is plotting to kill Attila. 

Attila plans to march on Rome but asleep one night, he dreams of being urged not to do so by an old man that he later recognises to be Pope Leo I. Attila therefore instead invites Ezio to a banquet and plans to marry Odabella however Ezio and Foresto are planning to attack Attila. Following the banquet, the Romans attack Attila and Ezio, Foresto and Odebella find Attila whereupon Odebella kills Attila with the knife he had given her. 

Opera Australia has brought this opera back on stage after having its initial season cut short by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and it's a welcome continuation of the performance. For the Opening Night, many in the audience attended in Black Tie and there was a smattering of A lister opera enthusiasts and Government Ministers including retiring Health Minister, Brad Hazard and NSW Treasurer, Matt Kean. The retiring artistic director of Opera Australia, Lyndon Terracini, sitting in the audience, was given a enthusiastic round of applause for his 13 years with the opera company with Attila being his final production.

At the conclusion of the opera during the curtain call, lead singer Taras Berezhansky, who is Ukrainian, draped the Ukrainian flag around his shoulders and was given a rousing sustained round of applause from the audience.

The cast for Attila were -

Taras Berezhansky as Attila

Natalie Aroyan as Odabella

Diego Torre as Foresto

Michael Honeyman as Ezio (replacing Mario Cassi who was unable to travel to Australia due to illness)

Virgilio Marino as Uldino

Richard Anderson as Pope Leo 1

Queen Elizabeth II: 21 April 1926 - 8 September 2022

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Sydney Film Festival 2022 - Film Review - Fire of Love

Fire of Love

 
Documentary film maker, Sara Dosa, has compiled this portrait of the late vulcanologists, Katia and Maurice Krafft based on thousands of hours of spectacular 16mm footage that the couple shot on numerous volcanoes before their deaths in an eruption near Japan's Mount Unzen in 1991. The Kraffts were prolific in their filming and recording with Katia in particular spending considerable time after expeditions converting their work into books, films and lectures.  They were almost fearless in coming in close proximity to the objects of their study whether it be camping on a solid crust plateau inside an active volcano, rowing in a rubber boat on a lake of sulpheric acid, avoiding flying boulders, standing in the sea close to a small lava flow meeting the ocean or simply cooking eggs in a fry pan on the crust of a slowly cooling lava flow.

The Kraffts were signficant scientists in their field, Katia being a geochemist and Maurice, a geologist, they contributed significantly to understanding volcanoes and how best to measure activity to enable a warning system to be developed ensuring local populations can evacuate before an eruption. They classified volcanoes into two types based on plate tetonic theory: red volcanoes that are less volatile with mainly impressive jets of lava and associated flows located where plates pull apart; and brown volcanoes, usually violently explosive, located where plates grind together.

The footage is both stunning and terrifying with the Kraffts telling their own story on camera or their words are conveyed through the voice of Miranda July as Narrator.

Sydney Film Festival 2022 - Film Review - The Phantom of the Open

Mark Rylance (right) in The Phantom of the Open

Within any major film festival there is always a need for a light hearted absurdist film to be included in the screenings, more so when the story is anchored in true events. This film fits that slot. Based loosely on the real life of would-be tournament golfer Maurice Flitcroft, the story follows the successful effort by Flitcroft, a crane driver, to enter the British Open although he had never played golf in his life. 

With the support of his wife, his disco dancing twin sons and a somewhat dubious co-worker, Flitcroft finds his way through the entry obstacles to enter the competition and produce the worst round in the history of the British Open. The eternal optimist, Flitcroft does not leave this as his sole effort and continues to seek further entry to this World ranked sporting event. The film follows the almost cat and mouse moves between British Open officials and Flitcroft as they try to keep him away from the golfing competition permanently.
 

A highly experienced cast support film director, Craig Roberts to give effect to this 'fact is stranger than fiction' story. Sir Mark Rylance is Maurice Flitcroft, the versatile Sally Hawkins as his wife, Jean, Jonah and Christian Lees are Flitcroft's twin sons (disco dancing being their forte) and Jake Davies as his step son who initially rejects his father's golfing efforts but eventually supports them.   

This is an amusing, light hearted film and a welcome theme in the current serious world.

Sydney Film Festival 2022 - Film review - Navalny

Alexei Navalny with photos of his would-be assassins

Documentary film maker Daniel Roher brings this very topical portrait of Russian Opposition Leader, Alexei Navalny, to the screen and introduces him to a wider international audience than may have been the case otherwise. In 2020 Navalny sensationally survived an assassination attempt by a hit team from Russia's security agency, the FSB using the nerve agent Novichok while he was visiting Siberia. He was able to recover in Germany through the efforts of his wife and international pressure whereupon it was discovered that the nerve agent had been used on him. Russia consistently denied all such allegations.

With the assistance of online investigation agency, Bellingcat, all four agents were completely identified and shown to have stalked Navalny for a number of years. With key contact details sourced by Bellingcat journalist Christo Grozev during this film, Navalny was able to phone each of them direct until one agent, under the impression that Navalny was from within the security service, divulged most of the details of the operation. It's a stunning and breathtaking set of statements captured during the filming. 

Also interviewed in the film are Navaly's wife, Yulia (a key person in her own right) their adult children, his media adviser and his chief-of-staff. Navalny is shown to be a charismatic lawyer who does not shy away from difficult questions and enjoys strong support in Russia. This makes him the key target for Russian president Vladimir Putin who refuses to even mention his name when asked. On arrival back from Germany, Navalny was arrested and sent to a penal colony facing 20 years imprisonment.

Given Putin's autocratic rule in Russia and the war again the Ukraine, this documentary could not be more pertinent. It is a must-see film to better understand the severity of the forces that Putin deploys in Russia.

69th Sydney Film Festival - 2022 - in full swing

 
The Sydney Film Festival has returned in full for 2022 shaking off the effects of COVID-19 and being staged with 14 screens in multiple locations in Sydney including its main venue, the State Theatre with satellite film screenings located at Event Cinemas, Dendy Newtown, Palace Cinemas, Ritz Cinemas Randwick, Hayden Orpheum Cremorne, Casula Powerhouse and the Art Gallery of NSW.

Full deatils can be found at this link: Sydney Film Festival

Sydney Film Festival 2022 - Film Review - Baz Luhrmann's "Elvis"

Austin Butler as Elvis Presley in Elvis

 
For any film director the prospect of creating a biopic around a cultural icon such as the late Elvis Presley is always a daunting and high risk venture. Will the film do justice to its subject ? Will the legion of Elvis fans accept the representation of 'The King of Rock and Roll' as shown in the film ? Is there a proper balance between the undoubted talent of the man and his ultimate decline ? Australian film director, Baz Luhrmann has made a valiant and generally successful effort with this high production values film which focusses on the ascent of Elvis Presley from his initial performances to becoming a major international star prior to his decline in health and ultimate death in 1977. Presley was only 42 years of age. 

Luhrmann's rumoured $200M budget production was filmed on Australia's Gold Coast with a predominantly Australian cast and crew. As a biographical musical drama there is a strong concentration on the actual Elvis' music and performances many of which were documented events in themselves. Perhaps the most unusual element is the fact that narration in the film and the perspective taken is from the view of Elvis' manager, the controversial Colonel Tom Parker. Parker remains a controversial figure to this day for his financial exploitation of Elvis with seeming control and manipulative restriction of his performances in the United States. 

The key cast members are American actors Austin Butler (as Elvis), Tom Hanks (as Colonel Tom Parker) with the largely Australian cast including Olivia DeJonge (as Priscilla Presley), Helen Thomson (as Elvis' mother Gladys) Richard Roxburgh (as Elvis' father, Vernon) and David Wenham (as musician/singer Hank Snow). 

The final ten or so minutes of the film use archival footage of the real Elvis Presley at the end of his career.

With a running time of 159 minutes, this is a film for those who enjoy the music and style of performance of Elvis Presley. Luhrmann has succeeded in executing a very capable and entertaining production.

2022 federal election loss for the Liberal Party - where to now ?

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The results from the 2022 Federal election have underscored the disconnect between the direction of the Liberal Party of Australia and both the broader community and a key part of its own support base. The results thus far are -

• 76 seats are needed in the House of Representatives to become a Government
• Australian Labor Party on 71 seats
• Liberal National Party on 52 seats
• Other being Independents or The Greens have 15 seats
• Counting on postal votes and prepoll is continuing as over 6 million eligible voters used these methods.

In terms of percentage of total votes -

• Liberal/National has 35.4 % (a fall of 3.29%)
• Australian Labor Party has 32.8 % (the ALP vote actually fell 0.5%)
• The Greens has 12.1 % (increased by 1.7%)
• One Nation has 5.0% (increased by 1.9%)
• United Australia Party has 4.3% (increased by 0.8%)
• Independents have 5.51%  (increased by 2.14%)
• Others are at 4.95%  

The Liberal Party has lost many of its key heartland seats in major metropolitan cities to Independents. 

In the seat of Wentworth in Sydney's high income, educated Eastern suburbs many of the campaign workers for successful Independent candidate, Allegra Spender, identified either individually or collectively as former members of the Liberal Party. Many had voted for the now defeated incumbent Dave Sharma in previous elections. But they had left the party finding it had become extreme and was failing to address the existential crisis of climate change. This was excerbated with a range of secondary issues such as a federal anti-corruption agency being deemed critically important but managed in a dismal, if not pitiful manner by the Morrison Government.

In terms of climate change, many Liberals, including Members of Parliament and Ministers now belong to, or support, an external organisation called the Coalition for Conservation (C4C). This inoccuous sounding body advocates for renewable energy, carbon reduction, carbon capture and storage, electric vehicles, transition programs for clean industries and clear measures to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. C4C attended the meetings around COP26 in Glasgow last year. It is telling about the Liberal Party that it is only through another body can any sensible debate occur on climate change initiatives but not within the party itself.

The issue therefore is less to do with the change in Government from the Liberal National Coalition to the Australian Labor Party (the overall national swing of 3.5 % is close to a standard change of Government) but more so the loss of the inner heartland of the Liberal Party itself. While the ALP has won Government, it has done so with a stagnant voting base with the real winners being the Independents and The Greens. Unless the Liberal Party is able to restore its broad church umbrella, the Party will find winning the electorates necessary for Government to be well nigh unattainable for many years, if not decades. This in itself has echoes to the wilderness years the Australian Labor Party experienced during the great split with the Democratic Labour Party (the DLP).

Archibald, Wynne and Sulman Prizes 2022

Journalist Laura Tingle by James Powditch

Australia's arguably most voyeuristic portrait prize exhibition is on display at the Art Gallery of NSW (AGNSW). This year, 52 portraits were chosen for inclusion from the 816 entries submitted to the AGNSW and generally the exhibition could be described as operating on safe territory with no controversies coming to light. 

Absent were images of politicians with the subjects for painting being drawn mainly from sports, film and television actors, singers, academia, writers, art collectors/benefactors, artists painting other artists and not a few self portraits (a common approach each year). Subjects included actors Lisa McCune, Hugh Jackman and Debra Lee Furness; fim director Taika Waititi; art collectors / benefactors, Liz Laverty, Patrick Corrigan, Peter Wegener; singers Deborah Conway, Peter Garrett, TV personalities such as Brooke Boney and Yumi Stynes to list a few.

Artists selected for the most part are the well established names such as Wendy Sharpe, Ross Townsend, Nick Stathopoulus, Natasha Bieniek, Anh Do, Robert Hannaford, Tsering Hannaford (Robert Hannaford's daughter), Jasper Knight, Mathew Lynn, Noel McKenna, Vincent Namatjira, Thom Roberts, Joan Ross, Paul Newton, Richard Lewer, Catherine McGuiness, Natasha Walsh amongst the group.

The winner this year is Blak Douglas for his portrait of artist, Karla Dicken standing knee deep in flood water (the Lismore flood being the background for the painting and very topical at present) carrying leaking buckets. Blak Douglas is the second Aboriginal artist to win the Archibald prize.

The Wynn Prize for landscape painting or figurative art has around 34 entries with an increasing number of Aboriginal artists submitting large works. These entries predominantly from Central Australian or APY communities have increased the scope of the exhibition and added a new dimension. Quite a few artists submit entries for both the Archibald and Wynne prizes with this year, Jude Rae, James Powditch and Noel McKenna being in both. 

The smallest of the 3 exhibitions is the Sulman Prize for subject, genre or mural painting and 31 entries were selected this year. This is the exhibition with the largest number of new artists being shown. Its a more esoteric and often mixed media/materials for the works. 

The exhibition runs from 14 May to 28 August 2022.

Great Barrier Reef in Australia - coral bleaching increases in latest report

                      Aerial survey  (c) Great Barrier Marine Park Authority

The lastest surveillance report on Australia's Great Barrier Reef confirms the ongoing damage to the reef through increased temperatures as a result of climate change. Of particular alarm has been the repeated events of bleaching which now number 4 in seven years. The expected relief from a change in weather systems to La Nina did not occur and a mass bleaching resulted. This prolonged heat exposure is occuring across the wider reef system. 

The latest reef snapshot report published this month (May 2022) describes the current situation in clear terms which are not easily disputed -

• A total of 719 reefs were surveyed from the air between the Torres Strait and the Capricorn Bunker Group in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Of these 654 reefs (91 per cent) exhibited some fomr of bleaching and a significant core of the central reef had severe or extreme bleaching. 
• Coral bleaching seen from the air is largely consistent with the spatial distribution of heat stress accumulation with a larger proportion of coral cover bleached on reefs that were exposed to the highest accumulated heat stress this last Summer (late 2021 and early 2022)
• The waters around the Great Barrier Reef exceeded historical summer maximums for the hottest summer months with three distinct heat waves increasing thermal stress throughout the Central and Northern Great Barrier Reef.
• The 2022 Aerial Survey Map [shown above] illustrates the variation in bleaching observed across the reef in the second half of March. The aerial surveys were conducted by trained observers from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and the Australian Institute of Marine Science.

The full report can be accessed at this link: Great Barrier Reef Snapshot Report 2022

Environmental, social and governance - the ESG direction

                                                                                                      Shutterstock

ESG, the abbreviation for environmental, social and governance (as in corporate governance) has become the latest buzz method for performance measurement and reporting for large corporate entities. It covers a myriad of activities (for example, climate change, biodiversity, pollution, risk management, diversity, employee engagement and so on) and there are a plethora of ways of measuring ESG and weighting various scores with the result that there is not an overall single rating determined. Different ESG audit companies use different methods that can and do lead to different ESG ratings being given to the same client company. Confusing it can be.

ESG is not directly the same as environmental sustainability as ESG involves measuring against a set of criteria which are focussed on company process and practices. Sustainability in contrast is focussed on outcomes. Highly polluting and environmentally damaging industries would use ESG as a risk management tool to ensure that they have best practice processes to mitigate pollution, avoid accidents,  reduce the need for expensive regulatory requirements/compliance and hence the risk of costly litigation. Sustainability in contrast is focussed on the impact of the company's activities on people and the environment including the sustainability of the services and products.

In one respect ESG has evolved as a result of the strong movement to ethical investing and increasing demands from funding bodies (such as banks), investors and consumers for greater corporate responsibility to be demonstrated. Such demands also focus attention on company's social licence to operate in a range of industries that may have high impacts on communities. Where corporations do not demonstrate responsibility, the social licence to operate is placed at risk. 

Russia - a nation with a history of military conflict

                                    Russian Armed Force Parade Moscow        Shutterstock

The war with Ukraine is bloody, merciless and brutal however it follows a well established path for Russia (or its previous incarnation, The Soviet Union) who has invaded and occupied many of its neighbours repeatedly over the past 200 years. This period spans the Tsarist era to the Russian Federation demonstrating that a change in political institutions has not led to a change in foreign policy. 

It is slightly over 30 years since the Soviet Union controlled vast swathes of Eastern Europe and parts of Northern Central Asia for over half a century or more. Poland, East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslavakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and the 'Stans' (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) were under direct Soviet control or being governed by puppet Communist regimes. These countries armed forces were integrated into the Warsaw Pact and there were Russian KGB officers stationed or co-located with the respective security services. Belarus still refers to its security police as the KGB. Afghanistan was a late inclusion being invaded in 1979 with the Russians leaving in 1989, the same year as the fall of the Berlin wall (which occured on 9 November 1989).

A short summary of Russian military conflict in the 20th Century from the Communist era onward is provided below. The Russian Civil War and Revolution occured during the period of 1917 to 1922 and much of the conflict involves neighbouring countries seeking independence and freedom from Russia, being successful but later being overtaken again by the Russians. World War I and World War II are excluded from this list due to being global conflicts where Russia was not the aggressor.

The wars -

• 1917 - 1921: Ukrainian war of independence. Ukrainians defeated and Ukrainian Soviet Sociliast Republic created
• 1917 - 1920: Kazakhastan campaign and incorporation of Kazakhastan into the Soviet Union
• 1918: Finish Civil War: Soviets defeated, IFinland independence defended.
• 1918 - 1920: Latvian War of Independence, Soviets defeated and Latvia gains independence
• 1918 - 1920: Estonian War of Independence, Soviets defeated and Estonia gains independence
• 1918 - 1920: Lithuanian - Soviet conflict: Soviets defeated
• 1918 - 1920: Georgian/Ossetian conflict. Ossetian rebellion for Russia defeated
• 1919 - 1921: Russian - Polish War. Soviets forced to negotiate at Peace of Riga Treaty. Poland independence gained.
• 1920: Invasion of Azerbaijan. Soviets win and Azerbaijan Democratic Republic overthrown
• 1920: Invasion of Armenia: Soviets win and Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic established
• 1921: Invasion of Georgia: Soviets win and Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic established
• 1921 - 1922: Intervention of Russia in conficts in Mongolia and East Karelia uprisings. Soviets win.
• 1929 - 1930: Soviet army intervention in Afghanistan leads to victory for ally of Russia.
• 1932: Chechen uprising is redefeated by Soviet army
• 1939: Soviet Union invades Eastern Poland while Nazi Germany invades Western Poland.Poland defeated and occupied. Later fully controlled by Nazi Germany following commencement of World War II and invasion of the Soviet Union by Germany.
• 1939: Finland Winter War: Soviet win and Finland cedes territory to Russia.
• 1944 - 53: Soviet army defeats Nazi German forces and reoccupies Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Partisan movements in Ukraine and Poland defeated and Russia occupies those countries.
• 1953: East German uprising. Soviets win and uprising suppressed
• 1956: Hungarian Revolution: Soviets win and revolution crushed
• 1968: Czechoslovakia invaded by Russia. Soviets occupy Czechoslovakia and remain until 1991
• 1991 - 1993: Georgian civil war. Soviet success
• 1994 - 1996: First Chechen War: Soviets defeated
• 1997 - 1998 Soviet - Afghan war: Russia initially wins but are later forced to leave.
• 1999- 2009: Second Chechen War: Russia wins and gains control over Chechnya
• 2008: Georgian War. Russia succeeds and occupies Abkhazia and South Ossetia
• 2014 - present: Ukrainain War

For countries neighbouring Russia's border, independence has always been an academic proposition only. Russia has sought continously to control regions well beyond its borders either directly or through installed governments by Moscow or considered favourably by them.

Easter 2022

                                                                      Shutterstock

Easter Sunday or Resurrection Sunday (referred to as Pascha in Armaic, Greek or Latin) commemorates the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead, three days after his crucifixion by the Romans at Calvary dated approximately at 30 AD. This period is a cultural festival and holiday for those of the Christian faith marked by hot cross buns, chocolate eggs (and bunnies) and preceded a week earlier by Palm Sunday.

Easter 2022 occurs at a time when the world continues to face consider pressures with an ongoing pandemic (SARS-CoV-2), a serious nation state war between Russian and Ukraine, many smaller unresolved conflicts in the Middle East and a general economic impact across the world. 

Despite these serious challenges, Happy Easter.

SARS-CoV-2: Pandemic or endemic ?

                    SARS-CoV-2                            Shutterstock

 
As the world is preoccupied with the war in Europe, other geopolitical tensions and economic recovery, the pandemic has taken more of a backseat than its current risk would suggest is prudent. COVID-19 is far from gone and continues to circulate in communities world-wide. While the impact has been lessened through an extraordinary vaccination program, the virus still has capacity to develop variants as it has done with Delta and the more infectious Omicron. With an uneven supply and distribution of vaccines many communities particularly in developing nations or conflict zones remain potentially exposed to the virus and hence possible hosts for variants to develop. The detection of a merged Delticron variant (Delta and Omicron) being a point in case.

Various statements from Governments around the world, rather than health professionals, have canvassed that living with COVID-19 is the new normal as the virus is now more endemic than pandemic. This is not the case. As the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned, classifying COVID-19 as endemic assumes there is stable circulation of the virus at predictable levels with predictable waves of transmission.

Bringing the virus to manageable levels depends on four key factors: global vaccination rates, the evolution of the virus itself; medical advances in both limiting infection and the treatment of those infected; and preventative measures such as improved ventilation and social distancing. At this time the race between vaccine development and deployment versus evolution of COVID-19 variants is head to head.

Terminology and meaning is important in this context. An epidemic is a disease that is surging in cases, and a pandemic is an epidemic that has spread over several continents. For a disease to be endemic the number of cases is more or less stable with possible seasonal fluctations similar, for example, to colds and flu. As COVID -19 is going through surges in different countries at present, it cannot be termed as endemic at this time.