Artificial Intelligence - AI - the jury is still out

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'Artificial intelligence' or AI. The terminology evokes images from film and television such as The Terminator film franchise which has the fictional 'Skynet' computer system become self aware and decide to wipe out the human race or the computer HAL from Stanley Kubrick's 2001 - A Space Odyssey which attempts to eliminate the astronauts on board their spacecraft. Or more laterally the androids from Star Wars, Star Trek or the Alien film franchise. 

For most people exposure to some form of AI already occurs with robo systems which do debt recovery, conduct surveys or provide basic insurance quotes. But what is AI exactly ?

The definition of AI can be applied to any method, process or technique that enables computers to mimic human intelligence. This is achieved with decision trees, logic algorithms, if-then rules and machine learning. Machine learning (or ML) itself operates with a core capability described as a neural nets which are created by programmers  using a learning algorithm supported by terabytes of data to train it. Computers therefore become able to train themselves with recognition of specific words or phrases or images.  How is AI applied at present ?

AI is used for multiple forms of modelling and then decision-making recommendations (predictive, detection-based, prescriptive), computer visuals (such as for facial recognition, image analysis, sensors) autonomous machines (drones, large vehicles in controlled environment, robotic assembly lines) and conversational platforms (virtual assistants, translations, inquiry assistance). 

There are however significant risks with the development of AI and unrestricted use. The late physicist, Stephen Hawking saw AI as a direct threat to the human race if not controlled and a range of AI-related failures already have been experienced by Amazon, Microsoft and the US justice system. The Loomis case in  the US state of Wisconsin in 2013 being a key example. In the Loomis case, AI was used to determine the length of sentence which the offender, Eric Loomis, should serve for car theft. The AI technology known as the Compas Program, gave a sentence at the higher end of penalty and more than would have been expected for the crime involved. This case remains controversial.

The Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD) have warned that "AI and ML designed intelligently and deployed sensitively herald immense opportunity. But the technology is not without risk. Flawed algorithms and biased data sets can lead to unintended outcomes while increased automation will likely reduce the needs for employees engaged in repetitive work" (June 2019).

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Ancient Earth - 720 million years back in time

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Imagine the Earth in the Cryogenian period around 720 millions year ago. A new online tool has been developed which can do just this.  The Cryogenian period was  the second of the three periods of the Neoproterozoic Era extending from approx 720 million years to 635 million years ago.

Click the link below to access:
Ancient Earth

Innovation and disruptive technologies - the new industrial revolution

Disruptive technologies - the new technologies which have the potential to disrupt the status quo have never been more prevalent in the last ten years than the earlier industrial revolutions which occured half a century or more than a century ago. The newest applications emerging during the information age continue to alter the way people live and work, rearrange value pools and create entirely new products and services. Of note rapidly evolving, transformative technologies are moving across the horizon and into deployment leading to significant structural change. These new technologies share four characteristics, according to McKinsey & Co which are as follows:

• The technology is rapidly advancing or experiencing breakthroughs: demonstrating a rapid rate of change in capabilities in terms of price/performance relative to substitutes or alternatives. Gene sequencing, and nano materials such as graphene are examples;
• The potential scope of impact is broad: the technology has a broad reach affecting companies, industries and a wide range of machines, products or services. The mobile Internet is one such example;
• Significant economic value could be affected: the potential to create massive economic impact is a key characteristic - advanced robotics has an estimated impact of $6.3b in labour costs and Cloud technology around $3 trillion in global IT expenditure;
• Economic impact is potentially disruptive: the potential to dramatically change the status quo is the fourth characteristic thus transforming how work and life are approached, changing comparative advantage for nations or shifting surpluses for businesses. New-generation genomics are a good example which impact health in both diagnostic and therapeutic uses.

12 of the potentially most disruptive technologies currently influencing the redesign of industries and whole economies are listed in the table below together with their estimated financial impact measured in trillions of dollars:

Technology	Description	$t impact
Mobile internet	Increasingly inexpensive and capable mobile computing devices and internet connectivity.	3.7-10.8
Automation of knowledge work	Intelligent software systems that can perform knowledge work tasks involving unstructured commands and subtle judgements.	5.2-6.7
The Internet of things	Networks of low-cost sensors and actuators for data collection, monitoring, decision making, and process optimization.	2.7-6.2
Cloud technology	Use of computer hardware and software resources delivered over a network or the Internet, often as a service.	1.7-6.2
Advanced robotics	Increasingly capable robots with enhanced senses, dexterity and intelligence used to automate tasks or augment humans.	1.7-4.5
Autonomous or near autonomous vehicles	Vehicles that can navigate and operate with reduced or no human intervention.	0.2-1.9
Next-generation genomics	Fast, low-cost gene sequencing, advanced big data analytics and synthetic biology.	0.7-1.6
Energy storage	Devices or storage energy for later use, including long life batteries.	0.1-0.6
3D printing	Additive manufacturing techniques to create objects by printing layers of material based on digital models.	0.2-0.6
Advanced materials	Materials designed to have superior characteristics (ie strength, weight, conductivity) or functionality.	0.2 -0.5
Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery	Exploration and recovery techniques that make extraction of unconventional oil and gas as economically viable.	0.1-0.5
Renewable energy	Generation of electricity from renewable sources (wind, solar, tidal, biomass) with reduced harmful climate impact.	0.2-0.3

Source: McKinsey and Co.
  

Martin Aircraft jetpack under demonstration

The aircraft and airborne devices industry (including drones) is a highly competitive, global market with domination by the major industrialised economies (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russian Federation) and had tended to function with linear research and development. The concept of a functional jet pack which can operate in restrictive surroundings otherwise inaccessible to fixed wing aircraft or helicopters is one example of a disruptive technology development (as shown by the Martin jetpack). Whether it achieves commercial success with large scale take-up will determine whether this potential disruptor succeeds in altering small level aerial transport.

Disruptive technologies are already impacting many industries particularly bricks & mortar retail, travel and hospitality and the information industry. But is it all as positive as advocates would suggest thus empowering for the consumer, or is the impact actually shifting liability and risk under the guise of greater choice ?