Polling on American perceptions of internal conflict in the United States

                                                                                             Shutterstock

With the US presidential election this year, public opinion polling has been prolific particularly since the annoucnement of US president, Joe Biden that he would not be seeking a second term and nominating Vice President, Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Party candidate.

Other polls on general sentiment have been conducted and underscore the level of unease that is found in the United States at the moment.  The Marist Poll is one such survey that identified that around 50 per cent of people polled had a pessimistic outlook on the current situation of possible internal conflict n the US. The poll was conducted prior to the announcement of President Biden's withdrawal from the election on 21 July 2024.

How was the survey done ?

The survey of 1,192 adults was conducted April 16th through April 18th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers or online. 

Results

More than 160 years after the Civil War began, nearly half of Americans think that it is either very likely or likely that they will see a second civil war. Perceptions about the possibility of another domestic conflict break along partisan, generational, racial and gender lines.

Link to the poll: Marist Poll: a nation divided

The United States and Australia - similarities and differences on key issues

                                                                                                                           Shutterstock

As commentators on the politics of the United States have observed, former president Donald Trump continues to exercise considerable influence on the Republican Party (aka the Grand Old Party or GOP) both in terms of policy and the success of potential candidates for elections. His influence also extends to a large proportion of the US public who supported his MAGA (Make America Great Again) slogan. Research by the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney published under the title of 'Public Opinion in the Age of Trump' remains relevant due to the polarisation of politics and opinion in the United States.

Using a survey sample size of 1,800 in the United States and 1,820 in Australia, relevant results found these similarities and differences (% shown are in agreement with the statements) -

  

Similarities	US	Australia
Hard work drives success	58 %	56 %
America/Australia is a friend/ally	97 %	94 %
Climate change is occuring	66 %	75 %
Differences
Minimum wage should be high enough so that no family with a full-time worker falls below official poverty line	57 %	84 %
The unemployed should have a decent standard of living	40 %	61 %
America/Australia is too economically dependent on China	51 %	63 %
Women should have access to abortion as a personal choice	42 %	58 %
Gun controls should be stricter, despite the fact its already much more difficult to obtain a gun in Australian than the US	53 %	66 %