New Year 2021

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As 2020 draws to an end, people around the world could be forgiven for hoping that 2021 will prove to be an easier year and that vaccines for COVID-19 are ultimately successful in blunting the effect of the pandemic. As at December 29, 2020 there are 81.2 million cases world-wide (and this is an under estimate) and 1.8 million deaths. Staggering numbers for the 21st Century with its health systems and biomedical expertise. 

2020 has been a year of disruption, dislocation and hardship across communities in every continent. This has not meant that other critical issues have receded including regional conflicts and the many impacts of climate change which remain as constants and unrelenting. 

Wherever you may reside, may 2021 be a year of rewarded hope, good health and resilience.

Christmas 2020 in the age of COVID-19

Christmas in 2020 under the presence of COVID-19 will be memorable for the manner in which the virus creates an environment that is diametrically opposite of the meaning and purpose of this time in the calendar. 100 years ago during the Spanish Influenza pandemic (designated H1N1 influenza A) a similar impact would have been felt however there are few, if any, people alive who would be able to recall this public health catastrophe.  

Coming together at the end of the year is the traditional custom however the most effective means to prevent the transmission of COVID 19 is to do the opposite and stay apart. At this time, compassion and kindness remain key to managing the pandemic as much as control measures and vaccines.

Christmas has different meanings for different people. The word itself is derived from 'Çhrist's Mass' during the 11th Century it evolved to 'Cristenmasse' (Middle English) and the 12th Century it became Cristes-messe. It has also been translated as Christian mass.

Wherever you are, may peace and tranquility bless you during this difficult time.

COVID-19 World-wide as at the end of October 2020 - 45.5 Million

As the world continues to grapple with COVID-19, Australia now ranks 89th for the virus transmission. The staggering figure of 45.5M infected people almost certainly under-estimates the true figure due to various factors such under-reporting, different measurement of data and low testing rates in some countries. Vaccines, even with considerable advances in virology, still take time to develop and coronaviruses in general are difficult to treat.

75 Years on - Victory over Japan remembered

Australian Womens Army Service, New Guinea, 15 August 1945 (c) AWM

For Australia the 15th of August 2020 marks 75 years since the Victory over Japan (referred to as VJ Day) or Victory in the Pacific (or VP Day) and the end of World War II. Japan accepted the Allies demand for unconditional surrender and with the war with Germany already concluded, Word War II was at an end.

The war in the Pacific had been particularly cruel for Australia with over 22,000 Australian sbecoming prisoners of the Japanese. These comprised 21,000 from the Australian Army, 354 from the Royal Australian Navy and 373 from the Royal Australian Air Force. 40 nurses were also captured and hundreds of civilians placed into internment camps. Prisoners of War were formed into work partes to provide forced labour for the Imperial Japanese Army including the notorious Burma Railroad.

8,031 of the 22,376 Australian prisoners of war captured by the Japanese died in captivity leading to War Crimes Tribunals at the conclusion of the war that investigated the many reports of massacres and atrocities committed by the Japanese forces.

Australian fallen being exhumed for reinterment in the Wewak Military Cemetery 1945 (c) AWM

COVID-19 incidence and mortality as at 2 May 2020

As the novel coronavirus COVID-19 continues its movement across the world, the overall mortality rate is around 7 % of total infections based on 3.4M persons infected. This however does not accurately represent the number of deaths nor the actual burden of disease due to under-reporting in several jurisdictions, factors of co-morbidity from other conditions and poorer outcomes in several countries compared to others. The timing differential between earlier outbreaks in Europe and South East Asia and later outbreaks in Africa, the Middle East and Africa means the impact of this disease still has some way to progress.

At this point higher mortality rates are shown in the UK (15%), Italy (13%) and Spain (11%) whereas Germany has a low level of death (4%). The United States is currently tracking at 5.8%. These figures sadly can be expected to alter in varying measures with slow or fast upward swings depending on the success of control measures being adopted.

Back in March 2020, Australia was ranked around 19th in the top twenty countries with confirmed numbers of people infected with COVID-19. Using a suite of methods to reduce transmission including closure of borders, social distancing, banning of mass gatherings, shutting down non-essential services, rigorous testing and contact tracing, Australia is now ranked 47th in the world. This is a significant achievement but one which is bittersweet. It comes with significant costs for the country whether  psychological, social welfare and economic - impacts that are being reflected world-wide.

Johns Hopkins University and Medicine remains the main global surveillance site:
Coronavirus Johns Hopkins Map

Lest we forget - ANZAC Day 2020

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As ANZAC Day dawns with a change in custom due to COVID-19, nonetheless the opportunity to reflect on the sacrifices made by those who have served in the Armed Forces particularly during wartime remains as valid as ever. While much of the ritual elements of ANZAC Day find their origins on the battlefields of the First World War, particularly Gallipoli and the Western Front, the contribution of the Second World War is just as poignant.

Australia's casualties in WWII were 39,655 killed or died as a result of their injuries during the period from 3 September 1939 until 30 June 1947. World War II ended in Europe on 7 May 1945 with Germany's surrender and in the Pacific on 14 August 1945 with Japan's surrender. Over 30,000 Australian service personnel were taken prisoner by the Axis Forces of which two-thirds of these were captives taken by the Japanese during the first weeks of their advance through south-east Asia in 1942. 36 per cent of all Australian prisoners died in the captivity of the Japanese.

It was during the American Civil War, that Union General, William Tecumseh Sherman made the oft used quote that has been repeated many times in various forms:  "War is hell... war is cruelty and you cannot refine it".

Lest we forget.

COVID-19 mapping in NSW by the University of Sydney

The University of Sydney has produced a simple heat map of incidence of COVID-19 for NSW, Australia similar to the Johns Hopkins University format for Global and US incidence of the virus.

As various control measures continue to bring transmission of the virus to much lower levels, the location of much of the disease can be tracked along the coastal regions of the State where the largest population centres are located. Of note the sources of infection remain as -

• Overseas 59 %
• Known contact or cluster 26 %
• No contact or source identified 12 %
• Interstate 2 % 

It is the 12 % which continues to be of the most concern given the unknown source of the original infection which is occurring mainly at the level of community transmission.

The University of Sydney map can be accessed at this location:
COVID 19 data - NSW - University of Sydney

COVID-19 and the United States - updated prevalence and mortality map from Johns Hopkins

As COVID-19 continues to move through the United States, Johns Hopkins University has updated their highly regarded COVID-19 prevalence global heat map with a separate US one tracking the progression of the disease across the States. This graphic presentation enables easier visualisation of the prevalence, recovery and mortality in the currently, worst affected country.

The new feature on the Johns Hopkins University and Medicine map can be accessed at the link:
Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 US Map

Easter 2020

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Social distancing, systematic hand cleaning, use of face masks, stay-at-home directions. Welcome to Easter 2020 and the impact of COVID 19. Easter can still be celebrated in many of the traditional ways with one of most well known being the hot cross bun. So prolific have hot cross buns become that these spiced breads can be found sitting in bakeries months before Easter arrives and in some cases all year round.

Where did this custom and practice come from ?

There is no definitive answer and its likely that the current practice most likely evolved from a number of different customs over varying periods of time. Traditionally hot cross buns are part of the Christian calendar and are eaten during Lent from Shrove Tuesday to midday on Good Friday. Various anecdotal stories have recorded buns being baked as far back as 1361 (St Alban's Abbey) or occuring in the time of the last Tudor monarch of England, Elizabeth 1 in the 16th Century.  Hot Cross buns are definitely recorded as being produced in the 18th and 19th Centuries. Prior to this later period there appears to be little actual records in existence.

COVID-19 as at 11 April 2020

Australia was ranked at number 19 for COVID 19 incidence a week ago but has now dropped to 26 as other countries record increasing rates of disease and mortality.

The Johns Hopkins University & Medicine map can be accessed at this link (below)
Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Map

Monitoring and mapping COVID-19 across the world

Johns Hopkins University and Medicine has developed a real time global case tracker tool for monitoring the movement of COVID-19 across the world.

The map can be access at this link -
World-wide coronavirus map

Earth Hour - 28 March 2020

 

The link to Earth Hour is:  Earth Hour 2020

Climate change - Greenhouse Gas emission data is absolute and unambiguous

Figure A

Note to Figure A: Climatic response time series from 1979 to the present [IPCC data] The rates shown in the panels are the decadal change rates for the entire ranges of the time series. These rates are in percentage terms, except for the interval variables (d, f, g, h, i, k), where additive changes are reported instead. For ocean acidity (pH), the percentage rate is based on the change in hydrogen ion activity, aH+ (where lower pH values represent greater acidity). The annual data are shown using gray points. The black lines are local regression smooth trend lines [authors William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Thomas M Newsome, Phoebe Barnard, William R Moomaw et al].

In November 2019, a call to action was issued by 11,258 scientists following the publication of new data (in the professional journal, Bioscience) demonstrating rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, global temperature increases with a range of corresponding impacts on the planet. This is not the first time such an unequivocal message has been delivered with a similar one being issued in 2017 but alas, insufficient action and business-as-usual has continued. Of particular concern -

• despite solar and wind energy consumption increasing by 373% per decade, it is still 28 times smaller than fossil fuel usage
• fossil fuel subsidies continue to energy companies and amount to a staggering US $400 billion in 2018
• the three abundant atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO2, Methane and Nitrous Oxide) continue to increase:  CO2 by 4.98%, Methane by 3.65% and Nitrous Oxide by 2.46% over the previous 10 year period
• global surface temperature has been increasing by 0.183C over the ten year period and faster than had been previously predicted
• ice has been disappearing: Arctic sea ice decreased by -11.7%, Greenland ice mass by -2610 gigatonnes, Antarctic ice mass -1230 gigatonnes
• ocean heat and acidity has increased with acidity by +4.12%

Depite the 1992 Rio Summit, the 1997 Kyoto Agreement, the 2015 Paris Agreement and numerous UN COP meetings, there has been insufficient action and progress with decarbonising or moving to low carbon renewable energy sources.

The articles can be accessed at these links -

Bioscience article 2019 World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency

Bioscience Vol 67 No 12 2017 World Scientists Warning to humanity

Public perceptions about climate change - the good, the bad and the ugly

Diagram 1

The climate change issue is as complex a topic with global community engagement and communication as much as it is about the science and technological solutions to address it. While there is strong support for action in Europe, the Pacific and many parts of Asia, there continues to be very divided opinions in the United States and Australia.

The Yale Program on Climate Change Communication has provided valuable insights into the communication challenge with climate change and the US population. Flowing from research and survey work started in 2009, the Yale program has demonstrated that there are six distinct and unique audiences in the US.  These six audiences have very different levels of engagement on the climate change issue due to varying psychology, culture,  risk perception, attitudes and political affiliation.

The Alarmed  are fully convinced of the reality and seriousness of climate change and are already taking individual, consumer and political action to address it. The Concerned are also convinced about global warming but are not engaged with it personally.

The three other groups being the Cautious, the Disengaged, and the Doubtful represent different stages of understanding and acceptance that climate change is a problem. None of these groups are actively engaged with the issue.

The real concern are the Dismissive who are very sure that climate change is not happening and are actively involved as opponents of a national effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The distribution and size of the six groups are shown in Diagrams 1 and 2.

There are signs that perceptions are changing and that public opinion in the United States is slowly shifting to greater engagement and concern about climate change. Comparing Diagram 1 (above) with Diagram (2) below which covers a 12 month period from 2018-2019, a discernible movement to greater alarm can be detected.

Diagram 2

From an Australian point of view, similar categories of community engagement would almost certainly be identified here with key political leaders being within the Dismissive group.

Link to the Yale study -
Yale climate communication - global warming

Understanding the impact of climate change on direct weather events

In late 2019, one of Australia's major commercial insurance companies, IAG, in collaboration with the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in the United States, released  a report outlining the increased severe weather which will occur as a result of climate change. The report models impacts at 1.5C, 2C and +/- 2 degrees Celsius and makes for better understanding of the direct weather events caused by climate change rather than the larger global impacts of melting polar ice, acidification of oceans, higher temperatures and mega storms.

The report should probably have garnered greater interest at the time of release given it was commissioned by a large commercial insurer. The overall tenor of climate debate in Australia and political dynamic would not have been conducive to ensuring it received sufficient attention.

Of note, IAG's perspective is "... the level of knowledge has now reached the stage where it is possible to make confident assessment of the impacts of climate change at larger scales and longer time frames with objective assessment of the associated levels of confidence.."  This, of course, contradicts those political naysayers who believe the evidence of climate change is still contestable.

The report provides key six assessments which are summarised briefly below and given events of the past few months, many of these assessments have been shown to be accurate -

1. While the frequency of named tropical cyclones in the Australian region, the proportion of the most destructive tropical cyclones has increased at the expense of the more weaker systems. Tropical cyclone risks are therefore expected to increase rapidly in south-east Queensland,  north-east NSW regional followed by coastal districts in Western Australia.
2. Intense short duration rainfall is expected to increase almost everywhere in Australia , resulting in more frequent flooding in urban areas and in small river catchments.  
3. Areas of large hail (2.0-4.9cm in diameter) and giant hail (>5.0cm in diameter) should progressively move southwards with a large increase in the risk to the regions inland from the Hunter River, southwards through the central and southern highlands of New South Wales and central to eastern Victoria.
4. The multi-day impacts of east coast lows on the south-eastern seaboard of Australia are expected to increase due to wind-driven rainfall ingress, flash and riverine flooding. 
5. Bushfire risk, as measured by the trends in fire danger indices is likely to increase in all locations nationally leading to more frequent and extreme events and longer fire seasons.
6. Sea level rise is expected to accelerate around the Australian coastline but at differing rates. It is notable that past assessments of sea level rise are lower than those that recent observations show.

In light of actual recent new data, the IAG report may yet prove to still under-estimate the full weather impact which will be felt sooner rather than later.

The report can be accessed at this link -
IAG - NCAR Severe weather in a changing climate report

Climate change - global temperature rises since 1860

Temperatures since 1860 have increased in heat with considerable movement upward from 1940 onwards with this trend line projected to continue for the next two to three decades unless action is taken to reduce Greenhouse gas emissions.

Australia since 1970 - less water and increasing droughts

Time-based data evaluation and mapping by the Bureau of Meteorology starkly demonstrates the historical pattern of less rainfall over the Eastern half of the Australian continent which has occurred over the past 40 years. The Eastern half of the continent, comprising the states of  Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland, produces most of the agricultural outputs whereas the Western half of the continent is semi-arid, arid to desert and cannot support food production. The impact of less rainfall will be continue to be an acute problem and one which requires faster adaptation than is currently the case. 

Australia's temperature increase since 1910

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

As the bush fires have caused an indelible impact on Australia during 2019 and 2020, the actual temperature data for the continent demonstrates the  extent of the increase of temperature particularly over the past forty years. This situation matched with lower rainfall, provides the perfect vector for widespread fires on the landscape.

NSW Rural Fire Service - prediction map for 4 January 2020

The NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) map portrays the manner in which bush fires can spread and the scale of movement given specific climatic conditions, in this case extreme temperature and wind condition.