2022 federal election loss for the Liberal Party - where to now ?

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The results from the 2022 Federal election have underscored the disconnect between the direction of the Liberal Party of Australia and both the broader community and a key part of its own support base. The results thus far are -

• 76 seats are needed in the House of Representatives to become a Government
• Australian Labor Party on 71 seats
• Liberal National Party on 52 seats
• Other being Independents or The Greens have 15 seats
• Counting on postal votes and prepoll is continuing as over 6 million eligible voters used these methods.

In terms of percentage of total votes -

• Liberal/National has 35.4 % (a fall of 3.29%)
• Australian Labor Party has 32.8 % (the ALP vote actually fell 0.5%)
• The Greens has 12.1 % (increased by 1.7%)
• One Nation has 5.0% (increased by 1.9%)
• United Australia Party has 4.3% (increased by 0.8%)
• Independents have 5.51%  (increased by 2.14%)
• Others are at 4.95%  

The Liberal Party has lost many of its key heartland seats in major metropolitan cities to Independents. 

In the seat of Wentworth in Sydney's high income, educated Eastern suburbs many of the campaign workers for successful Independent candidate, Allegra Spender, identified either individually or collectively as former members of the Liberal Party. Many had voted for the now defeated incumbent Dave Sharma in previous elections. But they had left the party finding it had become extreme and was failing to address the existential crisis of climate change. This was excerbated with a range of secondary issues such as a federal anti-corruption agency being deemed critically important but managed in a dismal, if not pitiful manner by the Morrison Government.

In terms of climate change, many Liberals, including Members of Parliament and Ministers now belong to, or support, an external organisation called the Coalition for Conservation (C4C). This inoccuous sounding body advocates for renewable energy, carbon reduction, carbon capture and storage, electric vehicles, transition programs for clean industries and clear measures to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. C4C attended the meetings around COP26 in Glasgow last year. It is telling about the Liberal Party that it is only through another body can any sensible debate occur on climate change initiatives but not within the party itself.

The issue therefore is less to do with the change in Government from the Liberal National Coalition to the Australian Labor Party (the overall national swing of 3.5 % is close to a standard change of Government) but more so the loss of the inner heartland of the Liberal Party itself. While the ALP has won Government, it has done so with a stagnant voting base with the real winners being the Independents and The Greens. Unless the Liberal Party is able to restore its broad church umbrella, the Party will find winning the electorates necessary for Government to be well nigh unattainable for many years, if not decades. This in itself has echoes to the wilderness years the Australian Labor Party experienced during the great split with the Democratic Labour Party (the DLP).