Saturday 4 July 2009

Climate Change and Sea levels - rising how far?

New Scientist (July 2009) has outlined various new estimates concerning sea levels rising at a rate and speed greater than the forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report. The IPCC had forecast a sea level rise of between 19 and 59 centimetres by 2100 but the report did exclude any rapid dynamic changes in ice flow in future years. The consensus now is that the IPCC estimates were far too optimistic. By far the most immediate contributor to sea level changes is the melting of glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica, Alaska to the Himalayas. Of particular note, is the number of sources for rising sea levels which demonstrate that warmer temperatures have different impacts not just the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The second observation is the degree to which ocean levels have already been rising for several decades.

New modelling indicates that the sea will in fact rise by 80 centimetres by 2100 and will continue rising beyond that date. For many parts of the world at zero elevation from sea level such as most Pacific Island groups, Bangladesh, Holland and many coastal strips in larger continents, the impact will be felt within this century. Sea levels will render heavily populated coastal land strips as unmanageable and unliveable. That sea levels will rise is an inescapable fact even with a reduction in greehouse gas emissions although the rate and degree can be influenced by CO2 reduction.
Planning for mass population relocation may be an unpalatable but essential reality of existence on planet Earth. Are Governments up to this challenge?

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comments are welcome but are subject to moderation.