The fragility of life - are the aliens dead ?

Figure 1: Scenarios A) B) and C)

Despite the realisation that there are literally billions of stars, exoplanets, planets and other celestial bodies in the Universe, the perplexing reality is that proof of life on other planets has been impossible to obtain despite decades of effort. Programs such as SETI and observational work through telescopes (Hubble, Spitzer, Kepler and in the future TESS and James Webb) has done little to establish the existence of life on another planet. 

Chopra and Lineweaver, in a controversial paper, have proposed a Gaian bottleneck theory to explain the low or non-existence of life while making the telling observation that archaeological excavations have not unearthed alien spaceships and optical and radio searches for extraterresttrial intelligence have not been successful.

The Gaia hypothesis, (theory or principle), contends that organisms interact with their inorganic surroundings on Earth to form a self-regulating complex system that plays a critical role in maintaining the conditions for life on the planet. Within this paradigm are key components such as the way in which the biosphere and the evolution of life forms affect the stability of global climate, ocean salinity, oxygen in the atmosphere and other environmental variables that affect the habitability of the planet.

According to Chopra and Lineweaver, a Gaian bottleneck exists whereby if life emerges on a planet, it only rarely evolves quickly enough to provide activities which regulate greenhouse gases and albedo, thereby maintaining surface temperatures compatible with liquid water and habitability. This bottleneck theory therefore suggests that first, extinction is the cosmic default for most life on the surfaces of wet rocky planets and second, rocky planets need to be inhabited to remain habitable. Almost a Catch 22 situation.

The emergence of life's ability to modify its environment and regulate initially abiotic feedback mechanisms is termed 'Gaian regulation'. As far as Chopra and Linewear are concerned, without rapid  evolution of Gaian regulation, early extinction would be the most common outcome for planetary life. As continuing efforts are made to search the universe to locate and identify life, the Gaian bottleneck model suggests 'that the vast majority of fossils in the Universe will be from extinct microbial life.'

Three scenarious are shown in Fig 1 above - A) Emergence bottleneck, life rarely emerges even on rocky wet planets; B) No bottleneck, life emerges with high probability and lasts for billions of years; C) Gaian bottleneck, life emerges but goes extinct within a billion years.

So, the chances of finding any form of life, under this model is close to zero and what evidence may be found will have long been dead. 

Chopra and Lineweaver's paper can be accessed here:

The Case for a Gaian Bottleneck: The Biology of Habitability

Gas and dust form planetary disks - formation - image courtesy NASA

The value of National Parks - a timeless heritage

Dove Lake, Cradle Mountain - Lake St Clair National Park, Australia (c) SO

National Parks, those precious territories of conservation, can be found world-wide across Africa, Asia, South America and Europe but they originated in just two countries - the United States and Australia. The first national park to be proclaimed was Yellowstone in the US in 1872, the second being the Royal National Park in Australia in 1879. Since then the concept has been introduced across the world but with vastly differing results and often severely challenged by land use conflict for human activity.

Australia now has over 500 national parks with over 28 million hectares of land designated as national parkland accounting for almost four per cent of Australia's land areas. A further six per cent of Australia is protected under various land categories such as state forests, nature parks and conservation reserves.

As at 2015, Australia has 19 World Heritage areas, a number of which also encompass national parks. Tthe United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) lists areas and structures as World Heritage when they are deemed worthy of special protection due to representing the best examples of the world's cultural and natural heritage. It's something of a mixed blessing for a number of World Heritage sites have also been lost due to war and religious conflict demonstrating that protection was little more than a theoretical concept. 

The key World Heritage sites in Australia with a nature significance are listed below:

• Great Barrier Reef (inscribed 1981)
• Kakadu National Park (inscribed 1981)
• Willandra Lakes Region (inscribed 1981)
• Lord How Island Group (inscribed 1982)
• Tasmanian Wilderness (inscribed 1982)
• Gondwana Rainforests of Australia (inscribed 1986)
• Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park (inscribed 1987)
• Shark Bay (inscribed 1991)
• Fraser Island (inscribed 1992)
• Australian Folssil Mammal Sites (Riversleigh, Naracoote) (inscribed 1994)
• Heard and McDonald Island (inscribed 1997)
• Macquarie Island (inscribed 1997)
• Greater Blue Mountains Area (inscribed 2000)
• Purnululu National Park (inscribed 2003)
• Ningaloo Coast (inscribed 2011)

The key challenge is matching conservation with public access for it's becoming more apparent that its possible for national parks to become too popular leading to large volumes of people traversing the fragile ecosystems and habitats with resultant degradation of the natural environment.

Freycinet National Park, Australia (c) Sentinel Owl

New Year 2016 - Where the World currently sits

Happy New Year

2016 will arrive in 12 days time and with the new year, where does the world currently stand ?

Economies: the United States economy is recovering from the GFC whereas Europe remains in negative territory with no immediate sign of improvement and a continuing debt problem for Greece. China's economy is slowing to single digit growth rates rather than double digit which has been the yardstick for the past several years. The mining boom is over in Australia and structural adjustment to the new investing environment remain elusive. Despite cutting the cash rate to 2% with a forecast to further cut to 1.5%, there is little sign of increased investing by the business sector. The Reserve Bank of Australia's key tool of economic leverage is therefore something of phantom which only affects housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne but does little to stimulate consumer spending or business investment. Consumer spending is influenced by the overall economic outlook and jobs sentiment.

International relations: the Syrian, Iraqi and Afghan conflicts continue to grind-on with Daesh, al-Qaeda, the Taliban and affiliated groups in Africa and Asia continuing to engage in armed conflict and terrorism. There are few signs, despite various pronouncements and UN Security Council resolution on Syria, of these conflicts ending in the near future. Closer to Australia, tension remains in the South China Sea with the Chinese Government building naval bases on the Spratly Islands, particularly Johnson South Reef and Fiery Cross Reef. This has led to strong diplomatic pressure from the Philippines, Japan and the United States (with some marginal statements from Australia).

Environment: the COP21 Agreement from the Paris Conference for managing climate change and  reducing CO2 emissions to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees C and possibly as low as 1.5 degrees C is high in ambition but short in capability and capacity. Many of the nations who are parties to the Agreement but are also developing industrial powers (India notably) are not, as yet, able to reign-in their energy reliance on the largest contributor, coal fired generators. Even if there was immediate action to remedy the situation the high risk of cascading effects from the existing temperature rise is very real with continuing collapse of ice sheets and permafrost melting across the upper Northern Hemisphere.

So with these large picture challenges in mind, Happy New Year !

Christmas - Who is the Virgin Mary ?

The ubiquitous Christmas Tree sans decorations

Christmas... for some people it's the time of the year when pine trees, red suited men with white beards and brightly packaged boxes of presents become the focus of everyday existence, for others it's a religious event commemorating the birth of Jesus and the origin of the Christian faith, albeit with elements of pagan festivals thrown in for good measure. Yet associated with this period is the mother of Jesus, the Virgin Mary, whose stature and importance has grown to such a level worldwide, that she has been elevated to being intercessor with Jesus and the bestower of miracles.

Little is actually known about Mary herself.  There is scant detail in the Bible (she only speaks 4 times and most other references are only mentions in the Gospels of Luke, Matthew, Mark and John) and whatever other information can be gleaned is drawn from first-century Mediterranean texts or Hebrew scriptures with the main sources being writings which occurred up to 65 years after Jesus' birth. Mary fares better in the Koran where an entire chapter (or sura) is devoted to her under the name of Maryam but again the sources are from a much later period of time. What is known is that she lived in Nazareth during the period in which it was part of the Roman province of Judea and she was the mother of Jesus.

It was at the Third Ecumenical Council at Esphesus, A.D. 431 that Mary was officially pronounced as Theotokos, Bearer of God and over the course of the next several centuries, a range of different cultural values have been projected onto her. She has been portrayed as an imperial figure dressed in royal purple and gold, as a kinder, gentler motherly figure, as a goddess figure or simply as a grieving woman. Her importance is strongest for the Catholics but not so for the Protestants who removed her as an intercessor during the Reformation which occurred from 1517 to 1648 (Protestants pray direct to God with no middleman).

There are more visions of the Virgin Mary worldwide than sightings of Elvis. From Bosnia, to Africa and South America, the Virgin Mary appears as visions to inspire and bring hope. The small town of Lourdes in France receives over 80,000 sick or disabled people to visit the Shrine of Mary each year. Devotion to her is easier to conceptualise in form and substance (there are solid images to see) than the amorphous entity that is God.

This Christmas when looking at the multitude of images and in particular, nativity scenes, spare a thought for the  Mother in the image. Would this woman from Nazareth be so comfortable with the images of her which now criss-cross the world?

COP21 Paris - Climate Change - Conference Agreement

COP21 media coverage

COP21 has reached the end of its negotiations and the host nation, France, has submitted the draft text for voting by the 195 nations. At around 20 pages this is significantly shorter than the previous 29 pages and contains a number of critical elements -

• the draft climate agreement would seek to limit global warming well below 2 degrees Centigrade aiming for around 1.5 degrees Centigrade,
• a system of five-yearly reviews and monitoring of each nation's progress is proposed,
• climate financing for developing nations of at least $100b by 2020 would be provided.

Despite the relative logic of these core elements there remains considerable barriers to achieving full agreement and compliance with the multitude of nations whose support is essential.

Climate Change and Public Opinion - Liberal voters remain resistant

COP21 event (Arnoud Bouissou)

As the climate change negotiations draw to a close at COP21 in Paris, the question of support for the appropriate level of Government action to meet the challenge ahead has its own inherent weakness. While the change in Australian Prime Minister from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull also heralded a change from a climate change sceptic to a climate change believer, the overall perspective of the Liberal voters has not. By and large, Liberal Party voters and supporters do not believe in climate change.

Research released by Australia's CSIRO presents a different picture for the wider Australian community. Over a five year period from 2010-2014, CSIRO conducted a longitudinal survey of 17,493 Australians to assess the ways in which they think about climate change and what steps they are taking to mitigate its effect on their lives. A dozen of the key findings are summarised below:

• Just under 80% of respondents thought that climate change was happening;
• On average, respondents predicted that around 23% of Australians were of the opinion that climate change was not happening when only around 8% of the respondents actually had that opinion;
• Opinions on climate change are not related to demographic differences - age, gender and education accounted for little, if any differences, of opinion;
• Those who believe in climate change based their opinions on scientific research  and very few selected 'politicans and government' or 'news and media'  as sources for their opinion;
• People's opinions about climate change are related to voting behaviour but more strongly related to environmental worldview;
• Most people expect temperatures to rise in their region;
• People think extreme climate and weather events will. increase in intensity and frequency in the future;
• People report being less able to cope with bushfires and storms if they occur in the future;
• There is broad support for a wide range of adaptation initiatives with most support given to renewable energy resource, protection form invasive species, increased investment in public transport and restrictions on development in vulnerable areas. 
• Least support was given to investment in nuclear power stations.
• People trust university scientists the most to provide truthful information on climate change. Oil companies and car companies were trusted the least.
• The strongest emotions associated with climate change are negative but there is a sense of hope with climate-relevant behaviour.

The report from the CSIRO can be accessed at the link below:

CSIRO Report