Update on H1N1

The recent information on the spread of swine flu indicates that the new virus is dominating over the existing main flu virus H3N2. More than 98% of the flu cases genotyped in the US during June 2009 were swine flu and a similar statistic exists for the state of Victoria in Australia where 99% of all flu cases which were genotyped were H1N1. A similar results exists for Argentina and Chile where over 90% of cases of flu were found to be swine flu. There are also indications that Tamiflu resistant swine flu has already evolved although at this stage, the number of cases is very small.

Forty years on... the Earth from afar

July 21, 2009 marks the 40th anniversary of the lunar landing of Apollo 11 with the first human beings to walk on Earth's nearest natural satellite. Neil Alden Armstrong (Commander), Edward Eugene Aldrin, Jr (lunar module pilot) landed in the lunar module while Michael Collins (command module pilot) remained in orbit in the Command Module. Many of the photographic images from that first landing have now become historical and iconic in their own right, none less than "Earthrise" (above) which shows the distant little blue planet which is home as seen from the moon.

As the planet now confronts the challenges of the environment, climate change and declining ecosystems, the image taken from Apollo 11 and the realisation of the fragility and smallness of the Planet Earth which the astronauts felt at the time, appears all the more prescient.

Climate Change and Sea levels - rising how far?

New Scientist (July 2009) has outlined various new estimates concerning sea levels rising at a rate and speed greater than the forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report. The IPCC had forecast a sea level rise of between 19 and 59 centimetres by 2100 but the report did exclude any rapid dynamic changes in ice flow in future years. The consensus now is that the IPCC estimates were far too optimistic. By far the most immediate contributor to sea level changes is the melting of glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica, Alaska to the Himalayas. Of particular note, is the number of sources for rising sea levels which demonstrate that warmer temperatures have different impacts not just the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The second observation is the degree to which ocean levels have already been rising for several decades.

New modelling indicates that the sea will in fact rise by 80 centimetres by 2100 and will continue rising beyond that date. For many parts of the world at zero elevation from sea level such as most Pacific Island groups, Bangladesh, Holland and many coastal strips in larger continents, the impact will be felt within this century. Sea levels will render heavily populated coastal land strips as unmanageable and unliveable. That sea levels will rise is an inescapable fact even with a reduction in greehouse gas emissions although the rate and degree can be influenced by CO2 reduction.

Planning for mass population relocation may be an unpalatable but essential reality of existence on planet Earth. Are Governments up to this challenge?

Bubble and Squeak - Methane a new energy source?

With the constant pressure to find alternative energy sources to reduce reliance on environmentally damaging coal fired generators and other fossil fuels, attention has turned to the high concentrations of methane which are found in various countries. In particular methane clathrate has become a favoured possible alternative energy source. Methane clathrate consists of molecules of methane trapped within ice crystals. With an appearance similar to dirty ice and a sorbet-like consistency, the application of heat rapidly ignites methane clathrates which omit about half as much carbon dioxide as burning coal.

Large deposits of methane clathrates can be found throughout the world in Central America, Japan, India, Alaska and Siberia both in permafrost and under the Ocean. The technology for extracting this energy source is still experimental and with methane clathrates lodged in fragile ice crystals, the safety and economic viability is in question. Also the methane molecule is twenty times as powerful as CO2 in warming the air. With rising sea temperatures, it would take little to release ocean clathrate reserves into the atmosphere.

Getting onto Carbon Emissions - the United States

The United States House of Representatives passed legislation on Friday last week intended to address global warming and transform the way the US produces and uses energy. It's the first time that either House of the US Congress had approved a bill meant to curb the heat-trapping gases which have been linked to climate change by a plethora of scientists and institutions worldwide. As the New York Times reports, the legislation could lead to profound changes in many sectors of the economy, including electric power generation, agriculture, manufacturing and construction.

Of note, the bill passed by a vote of 219 to 212, with 44 Democrats voting against it, and only eight Republicans voting for the bill. It remains concerning that the margin of the vote in favour was so small on such a critical issue. Nonetheless it will assist the United States when international negotiations on a new climate change treaty begin at the end of this year in Copenhagen.

The critical feature of the legislation is a cap-and-trade system which sets a limit on overall emissions of heat-trapping gases and allows utilities, manufacturers and other emitters to trade pollution permits, or allowances, among themselves. The cap would grow tighter over the years, pushing up the price of emissions and presumably driving industry to find cleaner ways of making energy. This is a standard approach in carbon emission trading schemes although it is often a contentious method if the timeline for emission reduction is too long.

As difficult as House passage proved, as the New York Times comments, it's just the beginning of the energy and climate debate in Congress. The issue now moves to the Senate, where political divisions and regional differences are even more stark.

The legislation is a patchwork of compromises and does fall far short of what many European governments and environmentalists have said is needed is essential to avert the worst effects of global warming which is steadily bearing down on the planet. While some environmentalists enthusiastically supported the legislation, others, including Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, opposed it. The US response is indeed weaker than the direction taken by the European Union. The bill has a number of key components nonetheless-

• A goal of reducing greenhouse gases in the United States to 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, and 83 percent by midcentury.


• Sets a national standard of 20 percent for the production of renewable electricity by 2020, although a third of that could be met with efficiency measures rather than renewable energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal power.


• Devotes billions of dollars to new energy projects and subsidies for low-carbon agricultural practices, research on cleaner coal and electric vehicle development.

Overall however this is a good step forward by the United States and one which will enable greater leverage for American negotiators in Copenhagen. It also sends a message to China, India and Russia that the US is finally moving on this issue which should provide a greater incentive for those countries not to delay taking action as well.

How long will it last?

The time taken for objects to dissolve at Sea -

Paper...2 to 5 months; Milk carton...5 years; Cigarette butt... 10 to 12 years; Plastic Bag...10 to 20 years; Disposable Nappy...75 years; Tin can...100 years; Styrfoam...unknown/unlimited; Plastic drink bottle...450 years (est); Nylon fishing line... 600 years (est); Glass bottle... unknown/unlimited.

These are frightening statistics when seen in the context of the volume of refuse being discharged into the ocean.

The Ocean as a floating rubbish dump

Ecology Today has drawn attention to the huge plastic waste dump which has grown and expanded in the Northern Pacific Ocean measuring twice the size of the continental United States. It stretches from around 500 nautical miles off the coast of California all the way to Japan to a depth of 10 metres below the surface of the sea.

Sea currents transport the waste into ocean “dead zones”, large areas of water that are slow moving circular currents which trap debris into one large constantly moving mass of plastic. This mass of plastic is slowly being broken down into a plastic dust that marine wildlife mistake for food with the result that many species in the food chain from fish through to ocean birds are being affected. The UN Environmental Program estimates that over a million seabirds, as well as more than 100 thousand marine mammals, die every year from ingesting plastic debris.

Ecology Today reports that the area is known as the Northern Pacific Gyre, one of five gyres in the world’s oceans. These gyres are areas of sea where water circulates clockwise in a very slow spiral. As winds are light the currents tend to force any floating material into the low energy centre of the gyre thus everything afloat becomes trapped in these “dead zones”.

Besides being a danger in itself, these vast areas of plastic pollution act as chemical sponge attracting other damaging pollutants, such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs), hydrocarbons and pesticides such as DDT that have leached or been released into the oceans from runoff or drainage. While this pollution contains huge amounts of plastic waste not all of it is floating on the surface as wave action and the heat of the sun degrades the plastic into smaller particles.

The need for action to reduce plastic contamination could not be greater given the scale of the existing environmental degradation.