New Year 2016 - Where the World currently sits

Happy New Year

2016 will arrive in 12 days time and with the new year, where does the world currently stand ?

Economies: the United States economy is recovering from the GFC whereas Europe remains in negative territory with no immediate sign of improvement and a continuing debt problem for Greece. China's economy is slowing to single digit growth rates rather than double digit which has been the yardstick for the past several years. The mining boom is over in Australia and structural adjustment to the new investing environment remain elusive. Despite cutting the cash rate to 2% with a forecast to further cut to 1.5%, there is little sign of increased investing by the business sector. The Reserve Bank of Australia's key tool of economic leverage is therefore something of phantom which only affects housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne but does little to stimulate consumer spending or business investment. Consumer spending is influenced by the overall economic outlook and jobs sentiment.

International relations: the Syrian, Iraqi and Afghan conflicts continue to grind-on with Daesh, al-Qaeda, the Taliban and affiliated groups in Africa and Asia continuing to engage in armed conflict and terrorism. There are few signs, despite various pronouncements and UN Security Council resolution on Syria, of these conflicts ending in the near future. Closer to Australia, tension remains in the South China Sea with the Chinese Government building naval bases on the Spratly Islands, particularly Johnson South Reef and Fiery Cross Reef. This has led to strong diplomatic pressure from the Philippines, Japan and the United States (with some marginal statements from Australia).

Environment: the COP21 Agreement from the Paris Conference for managing climate change and  reducing CO2 emissions to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees C and possibly as low as 1.5 degrees C is high in ambition but short in capability and capacity. Many of the nations who are parties to the Agreement but are also developing industrial powers (India notably) are not, as yet, able to reign-in their energy reliance on the largest contributor, coal fired generators. Even if there was immediate action to remedy the situation the high risk of cascading effects from the existing temperature rise is very real with continuing collapse of ice sheets and permafrost melting across the upper Northern Hemisphere.

So with these large picture challenges in mind, Happy New Year !

Christmas - Who is the Virgin Mary ?

The ubiquitous Christmas Tree sans decorations

Christmas... for some people it's the time of the year when pine trees, red suited men with white beards and brightly packaged boxes of presents become the focus of everyday existence, for others it's a religious event commemorating the birth of Jesus and the origin of the Christian faith, albeit with elements of pagan festivals thrown in for good measure. Yet associated with this period is the mother of Jesus, the Virgin Mary, whose stature and importance has grown to such a level worldwide, that she has been elevated to being intercessor with Jesus and the bestower of miracles.

Little is actually known about Mary herself.  There is scant detail in the Bible (she only speaks 4 times and most other references are only mentions in the Gospels of Luke, Matthew, Mark and John) and whatever other information can be gleaned is drawn from first-century Mediterranean texts or Hebrew scriptures with the main sources being writings which occurred up to 65 years after Jesus' birth. Mary fares better in the Koran where an entire chapter (or sura) is devoted to her under the name of Maryam but again the sources are from a much later period of time. What is known is that she lived in Nazareth during the period in which it was part of the Roman province of Judea and she was the mother of Jesus.

It was at the Third Ecumenical Council at Esphesus, A.D. 431 that Mary was officially pronounced as Theotokos, Bearer of God and over the course of the next several centuries, a range of different cultural values have been projected onto her. She has been portrayed as an imperial figure dressed in royal purple and gold, as a kinder, gentler motherly figure, as a goddess figure or simply as a grieving woman. Her importance is strongest for the Catholics but not so for the Protestants who removed her as an intercessor during the Reformation which occurred from 1517 to 1648 (Protestants pray direct to God with no middleman).

There are more visions of the Virgin Mary worldwide than sightings of Elvis. From Bosnia, to Africa and South America, the Virgin Mary appears as visions to inspire and bring hope. The small town of Lourdes in France receives over 80,000 sick or disabled people to visit the Shrine of Mary each year. Devotion to her is easier to conceptualise in form and substance (there are solid images to see) than the amorphous entity that is God.

This Christmas when looking at the multitude of images and in particular, nativity scenes, spare a thought for the  Mother in the image. Would this woman from Nazareth be so comfortable with the images of her which now criss-cross the world?

COP21 Paris - Climate Change - Conference Agreement

COP21 media coverage

COP21 has reached the end of its negotiations and the host nation, France, has submitted the draft text for voting by the 195 nations. At around 20 pages this is significantly shorter than the previous 29 pages and contains a number of critical elements -

• the draft climate agreement would seek to limit global warming well below 2 degrees Centigrade aiming for around 1.5 degrees Centigrade,
• a system of five-yearly reviews and monitoring of each nation's progress is proposed,
• climate financing for developing nations of at least $100b by 2020 would be provided.

Despite the relative logic of these core elements there remains considerable barriers to achieving full agreement and compliance with the multitude of nations whose support is essential.

Climate Change and Public Opinion - Liberal voters remain resistant

COP21 event (Arnoud Bouissou)

As the climate change negotiations draw to a close at COP21 in Paris, the question of support for the appropriate level of Government action to meet the challenge ahead has its own inherent weakness. While the change in Australian Prime Minister from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull also heralded a change from a climate change sceptic to a climate change believer, the overall perspective of the Liberal voters has not. By and large, Liberal Party voters and supporters do not believe in climate change.

Research released by Australia's CSIRO presents a different picture for the wider Australian community. Over a five year period from 2010-2014, CSIRO conducted a longitudinal survey of 17,493 Australians to assess the ways in which they think about climate change and what steps they are taking to mitigate its effect on their lives. A dozen of the key findings are summarised below:

• Just under 80% of respondents thought that climate change was happening;
• On average, respondents predicted that around 23% of Australians were of the opinion that climate change was not happening when only around 8% of the respondents actually had that opinion;
• Opinions on climate change are not related to demographic differences - age, gender and education accounted for little, if any differences, of opinion;
• Those who believe in climate change based their opinions on scientific research  and very few selected 'politicans and government' or 'news and media'  as sources for their opinion;
• People's opinions about climate change are related to voting behaviour but more strongly related to environmental worldview;
• Most people expect temperatures to rise in their region;
• People think extreme climate and weather events will. increase in intensity and frequency in the future;
• People report being less able to cope with bushfires and storms if they occur in the future;
• There is broad support for a wide range of adaptation initiatives with most support given to renewable energy resource, protection form invasive species, increased investment in public transport and restrictions on development in vulnerable areas. 
• Least support was given to investment in nuclear power stations.
• People trust university scientists the most to provide truthful information on climate change. Oil companies and car companies were trusted the least.
• The strongest emotions associated with climate change are negative but there is a sense of hope with climate-relevant behaviour.

The report from the CSIRO can be accessed at the link below:

CSIRO Report

Using viruses to treat cancer

Diagram: Nature Vol 256, 2015

The use of viruses as vector for the delivery of pharmaceutical agents or as a direct method to treat disease has been the subject of research for over a decade in various countries around the world. Referred to as oncolytic viruses (OV), they selectively replicate and kill cancer cells and spread within the tumor, but do not harm normal tissue. OVs are also very effective at inducing immune responses to themselves and to the infected tumor cells this assisting with cancer cell identification and apoptosis. OVs encompass a broad diversity of DNA and RNA viruses included such well known ones as measles and herpes simplex. By providing a diverse platform for immunotherapy the OVs can operate as in situ vaccines, or armed with immunomodulatory transgenes or combined with other immunotherapies. 

What makes this form of treatment potentially revolutionary is that many viruses preferentially infect cancer cells as the very nature of a malignancy suppresses normal antiviral response thus providing a perfect target for the virus. In some aspects, mutations which drive tumour growth also make cancer cells vulnerable to infection.

Both the United States and Europe have this year approved the use of a genetically engineered virus, talimogene laherparepvec (T-VEC) to treat advanced melanoma. T-VEC causes herpes however the virus has been genetically engineered to drastically reduce this risk and a gene has also been inserted which encodes a protein to stimulate a person's immune system. Results from a large clinical trial supported by biotechnology giant Amgen, published this year, demonstrated concrete results in tumour reduction and an increased survival period.

In time, some of the best known viruses which have proven to be such a scourge for humans may yet prove to have powerful beneficial uses.

Driverless transport - automation and computerisation removes the human element

Automated passenger train cabin

Driverless trains, driverless cars and pilotless planes - a future which already has arrived in the present and will expand in the coming decades. No longer the preserve of science fiction or James Bond films, transport modes without direct human involvement are in various stages of deployment across many sectors of the economy.

As noted by McKinsey & Company, various forms of semi autonomous technology already exist in cars such as adaptive cruise control, automatic parallel parking and collision warnings to name a few. Systems which cars use externally  include radar, cameras and lasers scanners which take the driver's role of watching the road and responding. Internal car systems collect information about passengers and the environment. Autonomous or self-driving cars have the potential to revolutionise transportation and commensurately reduce the amount of traffic on the road. A self-driving car could, for example, drop the main user at work and then continue on to provide a trip for other members of the family rather than sit idly in a parking space for 20 hours a day. Research and modelling by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has estimated that every passenger could be conveyed to their destination on time but with up to 80 per cent less cars. The reduction of cars on the roads in such numbers would have a corresponding positive impact on environment, roads, traffic, energy usage and land use for parking.

 Crewless Little Bird H-6U Helicopter (Boeing)

An obvious question which arises is the issue of digital security as this technology can be vulnerable to hacking or to computer viruses. Improvements to digital security are under development with one of the most successful tests having been completed by the United States Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Using an uncrewed Boeing Little Bird helicopter as test subject, hackers were given access to the aircraft's computer but were unable to disable the critical systems. The critical software at the central core of the computer's operating system known as the 'kernel' had been rendered  unhackable with the result that hackers could not perform actions that are meant to be forbidden. 

The kernel can have a few highly secure properties such as its code, memory and data transfers which cannot be read or changed without permission. The kernel can also enable systems to be kept seperate thus removing the ability of a hacker to gain remote control by springboarding from a car's Wi-Fi entertainment system to the steering system. This is critical technology which will also protect similar systems found in power grid and medical devices. Is society ready for driverless cars on the road ?

 

Film Review - The Martian - Matt Damon

Matt Damon staring across the desolate nothingness of Mars - The Martian

Generally a film which includes the names Ridley Scott, Matt Damon and Jessica Chastain is enough to guarantee not only commercial success but also the viewer's confidence that there will be painstaking attention to technical detail with a dramatic plot. This is partly the case with The Martian directed by Ridley Scott based on the novel by Andy Weir, adapted into a screenplay by Drew Goddard.

In terms of the storyline for this film, astronaut and botanist, Mark Watney (Matt Damon) a member of the Ares III mission is accidently left behind on Mars when the mission team  is forced to evacuate the planet due to a massive storm which threatens to topple their planetary lander. Mission Commander Melissa Lewis (Jessica Chastain) unaware her team member is alive commences the return flight to Earth. Mission Control however become aware that Watney is alive from satellite surveillance of the mission site and commence plans to rescue him from Mars before his supplies are exhausted. When these plans fail, it is up to Lewis and her team to attempt the impossible and return to Mars to execute the rescue.

This is a high production value film in respect of sets, CGI animation, locations and so on. The principal photography is superb yet even so, the film's flaws are almost comical. Although in the sci fi genre, The Martian is far more fiction than science yet its story is one which is clearly the opposite. The close cooperation of NASA in the technical advice for the film and its promotion including on the International Space Station only adds to the science-speculation of many aspects. Mars, for example, has little atmosphere so massive storms do not occur and Mars gravity is only 40% of Earth gravity hence the Earth-like movement of the astronauts on the surface is out-of-place.

In terms of acting, Matt Damon is, well, simply being Matt Damon in something akin to a chapter in the 'Boys Own Annual of an Adventure on Mars'. Robinson Crusoe he is not and unlike the shipwrecked mariner of the past,  he does have contact not only with his crewmates in transit to Earth but also with Mission Control.

The film was shot at the Korda Studios in Hungary and  Wadi Rum in Jordan providing a stunning visual landscape. With a budget of $108 million the film had grossed $478.4 million by November 2015 providing a more than adequate return for the investment.

New generation genetic pesticides - magic solution or potential problem ?

Genetically modified - the term evokes considerable controversy and debate amongst agriculturalists, scientists and the broader community. Although often associated with food crops and to a limited level, with animal husbandry, a new generation of genetically-focussed pesticides are in development and early results indicate that these new agrichemicals are effective. The latest technology in pesticides evolution is termed RNA interference. In simple terms, RNA is Ribonucleic acid and one of the two types of nucleic acids found in all cells with the other type being deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA). Crucially RNA transmits genetic information from DNA to proteins produced by the cell.  RNA interference causes disruption and silences insect genes.

The University of Colarado has been successful is using an RNA spray to kill the Colorado potato beetle protecting potato plants for more than 28 days. The RNA spray does not however introduce heritable changes to the genome. Monsanto is currently developing RNA sprays to use on beetles which are resistant to other pesticides with the intention of having products ready for the market by 2020. 

Of concern, is the fact that RNA sprays are not classified as GM products being instead chemical pesticides and therefore will not be regulated under the genetically modified regime. There remains various unknowns with this development not the least being the possibility of modified RNA being detected in species other than the target insect pests once the use of this spray becomes more commonplace.

Paris, terrorism and the level of response

Following the November 13, 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, French president Francois Hollande has vowed that the response from France will be 'merciless'. The degree to which France is able to mount such an action will depend on part on whom the actual perpetrators are (given the direct assailants were all killed during the terrorist assault, the focus moves to discover whom planned, funded and supported the action). Daesh have claimed responsibility for the attacks however it remains to be established whether the attacks were executed by external persons coming into France, internal cadres and/or local radicalised residents operating within the French Republic or a combination of both. Early reports of a Syrian passport being found on one of the terrorists and transit through Greece by that person only provide minor confirmation of an external link.

France's involvement to date in the global anti-extremist campaign has been measured with its main commitment being the Sahel region of Africa. In the Syria/Iraq region, French aircraft have flown more than 1,285 missions against Daesh targets in Iraq but only two in Syria. There are six French fighter aircraft operating from the United Arab Emirates and six fighter aircraft stationed in Jordan. The nuclear aircraft carrier, Charles de Gaulle is being deployed for a support role to the region as previously announced on November 4th. The military assets therefore are limited at the present time.

As global intelligence organisation, Stratfor comments -

"France has numerous options for retaliation at its disposal, but its response will be conditioned by who was ultimately responsible. If it is found that the Islamic State core group was indeed behind the Nov. 13 attack, France will likely ramp up its Syrian air operations. The skies over Syria, however, are already congested with coalition and Russian aircraft. With this in mind, the French may choose to retaliate by focusing instead on the Islamic State in Iraq, or perhaps even other Islamic State provinces in places such as Libya. Another option would be to increase French programs to train and support anti-Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria, or even to conduct commando strikes against key leadership nodes. France also has the option of deploying an expeditionary force like it did in the Sahel, although that would probably require outside airlift capacity from NATO allies, especially the United States."

UN Climate Change Negotiations: Conference of the Parties - Paris - 2015

The latest round of climate change negotiations are soon to start later this month running from 30 November to early December 2015. The twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the eleventh session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) will take place from 30 November to 11 December 2015, in Paris, France. While there has been some level of doubt as to the likelihood of achieving agreement, research by the United Nations has found that considerable action has been undertaken across a range of functions by most of the parties to the Framework Convention. The chances of a Copenhagen-style COP failure are significantly less than previous years with widespread acceptance of the target of a temperature increase of no greater than 2 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial baseline.Yet many doubts exist on the capacity of various countries to deliver fully on their stated intentions. A significant number of countries are still reliant on fossil fuels for energy generation with the resultant use of coal and emissions of CO2.

The information hub for COP21 is accessed here: 

COP 21 Paris Information Hub

A copy of the UNs synthesis report from the Parties to the Framework Convention is accessed here:

UN Report - Synthesis of responses from the parties