Paris, terrorism and the level of response

Following the November 13, 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, French president Francois Hollande has vowed that the response from France will be 'merciless'. The degree to which France is able to mount such an action will depend on part on whom the actual perpetrators are (given the direct assailants were all killed during the terrorist assault, the focus moves to discover whom planned, funded and supported the action). Daesh have claimed responsibility for the attacks however it remains to be established whether the attacks were executed by external persons coming into France, internal cadres and/or local radicalised residents operating within the French Republic or a combination of both. Early reports of a Syrian passport being found on one of the terrorists and transit through Greece by that person only provide minor confirmation of an external link.

France's involvement to date in the global anti-extremist campaign has been measured with its main commitment being the Sahel region of Africa. In the Syria/Iraq region, French aircraft have flown more than 1,285 missions against Daesh targets in Iraq but only two in Syria. There are six French fighter aircraft operating from the United Arab Emirates and six fighter aircraft stationed in Jordan. The nuclear aircraft carrier, Charles de Gaulle is being deployed for a support role to the region as previously announced on November 4th. The military assets therefore are limited at the present time.

As global intelligence organisation, Stratfor comments -

"France has numerous options for retaliation at its disposal, but its response will be conditioned by who was ultimately responsible. If it is found that the Islamic State core group was indeed behind the Nov. 13 attack, France will likely ramp up its Syrian air operations. The skies over Syria, however, are already congested with coalition and Russian aircraft. With this in mind, the French may choose to retaliate by focusing instead on the Islamic State in Iraq, or perhaps even other Islamic State provinces in places such as Libya. Another option would be to increase French programs to train and support anti-Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria, or even to conduct commando strikes against key leadership nodes. France also has the option of deploying an expeditionary force like it did in the Sahel, although that would probably require outside airlift capacity from NATO allies, especially the United States."