New Year Challenges for 2010

With the new year about to commence, its worth quickly reflecting on the current state of play which will continue into the next year and maintain a powerful influence:

• The international economy is still recovering and quite patchy with some strong local economies including two giants in the developing world. Many others remain flat or with only marginal increases in growth.
• The conflict with terrorism continues as does the war in Afghanistan. The possible number of failed lawless states remains as it was in 2009. Security will remain a critical feature for the year.
• The UN Climate Change Conference (COP 15) at Copenhagen in December 2009 did not produce an effective plan for reducing carbon emissions as well as other related global warming factors.
• Technology convergence which is a mixed blessing will continue this year. This means both instantaneous communication but also social dislocation as the new technology causes both.   

In summary then, the direction of 2010 is already partially set by the events of 2009 some of which find their own basis from earlier years. Australia can ride out some but not all of these challenges. It will be a testing year.

COP 15 Agreement

The summary of resolutions from COP 15 shows in effect only a cursory series of agreements and not sufficient to combat carbon emissions in the degree necessary.  Further negotiations will occur in the next year so it is hoped that these may produce more tangible results.

GLOBAL WARMING ‘‘should be (kept) below two degrees Celsius’’, says the draft. But it does not identify a year by which carbon emissions should peak, a position resisted by emerging giants. Countries are asked to spell out by February 1 next year their pledges for curbing carbon emissions by 2020. The deal does not spell out penalties for any country that fails to meet its promise.

FUNDS: Rich countries are pledging $US10 billion in the three years from 2010-2012 to help poor countries tackle climate change. They also set the goal of ‘‘mobilising jointly’’ $US100 billion a year by 2020, drawn from ‘‘a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance.’’

VERIFICATION: The pledges of rich countries will come ‘‘under rigorous, robust and transparent’’ scrutiny under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Developing countries will submit national reports on their emissions pledges under a method ‘‘that will ensure that national sovereignty is respected.’’ Pledges on mitigation measures that require international support will be recorded in a registry.

MID-CENTURY TARGETS: The text does not endorse the goal of halving the global output of carbon pollution by mid-century, an objective many rich countries endorse. Emerging giants mainly China and India have said they are unwilling to back such a target.

LEGALLY-BINDING TREATY: There is no deadline for transforming the objectives outlined in the accord into a legally-binding treaty. It had been widely expected that the text would call for a treaty to be finalised before the end of 2010.

Climate Change - an agreement too far?

As COP 15 concludes, the rest of the World will be left wondering exactly what has been achieved at a conference which has been marked by hostility and division notwithstanding the expected grandstanding and neogiating stances taken by delegates, environment ministers and Heads of State. The deal going forward for the consideration of the 190 countries attending the Climate Change Conference is to try to limit global warming to 2 degrees C but contains no targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions and is not a binding deal. The alternative to this very mild platform was to have the conference collapse into chaos yet with indications that the global environment is going to heat by 3 degrees C , this approach will be too little to effectively mitigate against changes already underway. On the basis that some agreement is better than no agreement at all COP15, has been successful in some key measures of reaching an understanding that action is needed. The devil, as always, is in the detail and key aspects such as the level of $ in the climate change fund, verification of reduction in emissions and a binding agreement remain glaring missing items.

COP 15 Negotiations - Initial Rounds

The 15th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) is underway at the Bella Centre in Copenhagen running from the 7th to the 18th of December, 2009.

With fierce debate in progress at COP 15, its opportune to reflect that more than half of global carbon pollution comes from developing countries rather than the developed part of the world and hence both segments must contribute in real terms to efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change. Developing countries led by emerging giants China, India and Brazil are the most significant CO2 emitters, and the proportion of carbon pollution from these sources is set to rise as their high-population economies grow.

Not surprisingly, the 42-member Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes the vocal island nation of Tuvalu, and the bloc of mainly African Least Developed Countries, have rejected the widely held goal of keeping global temperatures from rising more than 2.0 degrees Celsius stating that this target is manifestly inadequate.

In their estimation only a cap of 1.5 C compared to pre-industrial times would give their nations a chance of fighting off rising seas or crippling drought. The reality is their position is fairly sound and without ambitious targets both with agreement and adherence, the opportunity for averting a major shift in climate will be lost.

When greed is not good

Documentary film maker Michael Moore has focussed on the capitalist system itself in his latest film offering 'Capitalism a love story'. In his film Moore explores some of the more unsavoury aspects of capitalism and focusses strongly on the financial markets, merchant banks and Wall Street in general. As with all Michael Moore films, he hides no punches and preaches his sermons from the front lobbies of many of the giants of American corporates. Nonetheless as with all Moore films he brings to life the exact human toll and presents the human face in the community often lost when discussing market performance, profit and the imaginery gains and losses in the synthetic securities markets. Could anyone imagine a corporate employer taking out a life insurance policy on an employee so the company benefits if the employee dies but the surviving family members do not?

Scanning the Heavens

The recent exercise in December 2008 by the US Air Force to assess the ability to cope with a collision with a Near Earth Object again highlighted how limited is the Earth's capability to detect or prevent such an event taking place. Recently however a Near Earth Object did indeed come into contact with the Earth in October 2008. Designated 2008 TC3 this car sized object exploded over the Sudan but was only spotted by a telescope (the Catalina Sky Survey) with 20 hours notice and at a distance of 500,000 kilometres from our planet. Although the likelihood of a catastrophic asteroid collision is extremely rare, the potential for a strike from a smaller but still destructive near earth body has much greater plausibility.

This situation again raises the need for a greater overall surveillance of the space around Earth and in relation to the Earth's orbit around the Sun. The proposal to increase surveillance through the Panoramic Survey telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) as well as the proposed Large Synoptic Survey Telescope in Chile (providing the project is completed by 2015) will complement the existing monitoring programs. The next question is what action to take if a large body is located on a trajectory to Earth.

Geothermal energy - a price too high to pay?

From the New York Times, 10 September 2009

The question of harnessing the earth's own capacity for energy generation should be measured against possible other effects and risks as the article below outlines.

LANDAU IN DER PFALZ, Germany — Government officials here are reviewing the safety of a geothermal energy project that scientists say set off an earthquake in mid-August, shaking buildings and frightening many residents of this small city. The geothermal plant, built by Geox, a German energy company, extracts heat by drilling deep into the earth. Advocates of the method say that it could greatly reduce the world’s dependence on fossil fuels by providing a vast supply of renewable energy.


But in recent months, two similar projects have stirred concerns about their safety and their propensity to cause earthquakes. In the United States, the Energy Department is scrutinizing a project in Northern California run by AltaRock Energy to determine if it is safe. (The project was shut down by the company last month because of crippling technical problems.) Another project, in Basel, Switzerland was shut down after it generated earthquakes in 2006 and 2007 and is awaiting the decision of a panel of experts about whether it can resume.

The Landau project will be allowed to continue operating while the review panel, which held its first meeting last Friday, deliberates. Geox officials initially denied any responsibility for the temblor and continue to dispute the government’s data linking the project to the quake. The panel will, among other things, have to sort through the conflicting data presented by the company and government scientists.

Like other earthquakes that have been attributed to geothermal plants, the Landau temblor was sudden and brief and was accompanied by a sound that in some cases has been likened to a sonic boom. There were no injuries and there was no known structural damage to buildings in the city. But the 2.7 magnitude quake has stoked fears and set off debate in the state Parliament, which subsidized the construction of the plant, about the method’s safety.

In interviews last week, Geox officials conceded that the plant had set off tiny earthquakes and said that they were not certain what set off the Aug. 15 temblor. But consultants for the company dispute the data cited by government scientists to back up their conclusion that the project caused the earthquake: their own data, they said, proves that the quake originated more than two miles from the site of the plant and six miles below the earth’s surface. Those figures would essentially rule out a connection with the plant.

The Landau plant, which cost $30 million, went into operation in 2007 and produces electricity for 6,000 homes by drawing heat from beneath the bedrock, nearly two miles beneath the earth’s surface. Geox said a coal-burning plant producing the same electricity would emit 30,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually.
-----------------------