Activity from the Earth's sun and impact on satellites

Right now, the Sun is far more active than predicted – and small satellites are paying the price

Kyle McMullan, Curtin University

Last week, three tiny Australian satellites from Curtin University’s Binar Space Program burned up in Earth’s atmosphere. That was always going to happen. In fact, Binar means “fireball” in the Noongar language of the First Nations people of Perth.

When a satellite is in low Earth orbit (2,000km or less), it experiences orbital decay as it drags closer and closer to the surface, eventually burning up.

But these cube satellites (CubeSats), known as Binar-2, 3 and 4, entered the atmosphere much sooner than originally planned. They only lasted for two months – a third of what was expected. This significantly reduced valuable time for science and testing new systems.

The reason for their untimely demise? Our Sun has kicked into high gear, and the Binar satellites are far from the only casualty. Recent high solar activity has been causing an unexpected headache for satellite operators in the last few years, and it’s only increasing.

Why is the Sun so active?

Solar activity includes phenomena such as sunspots, solar flares and solar wind – the stream of charged particles that flows toward Earth.

This activity is a product of the Sun’s ever-changing magnetic field, and approximately every 11 years, it completely flips. At the midpoint of this cycle, solar activity is at its highest.

While this cycle is known, specific solar activity is challenging to predict – the dynamics are complex and solar forecasting is in its infancy.

In the last few months, indicators of solar activity were more than one and a half times higher than predictions for this point in the current cycle, labelled solar cycle 25.

The impact of space weather

Space weather refers to the environmental effects that originate from outside our atmosphere (mostly the Sun). It affects us on Earth in a variety of noticeable and unnoticeable ways.

The most obvious is the presence of auroras. In the past few months, auroras have been visible far more intensely and closer to the equator than in the last two decades. This is a direct result of the increased solar activity.

Space weather, and solar activity in particular, also creates additional challenges for satellites and satellite operators.

Higher solar activity means more solar flares and stronger solar wind – resulting in a higher flux of charged particles that can damage or disrupt electrical components on satellites.

It also means an increase in ionising radiation, resulting in a higher dose for astronauts and pilots, and potential disruptions to long-distance radio communications.

But for satellites in low Earth orbit, the most consistent effect of solar activity is that the extra energy gets absorbed into the outer atmosphere, causing it to balloon outward.

As a result, all satellites less than 1,000km from Earth experience a significant increase in atmospheric drag. This is a force that disrupts their orbit and causes them to fall towards the planet’s surface.

Notable satellites in this region include the International Space Station and the Starlink constellation. These satellites have thrusters to counteract this effect, but these corrections can be expensive.

Low Earth orbit also contains many university satellites, such as the Binar CubeSats. Cube satellites are rarely equipped with tools that can adjust their altitude, so they’re entirely at the mercy of space weather.

What happened to Binar?

The Binar Space Program is a satellite research program operating out of Curtin University. It aims to advance our understanding of the Solar System and lower the barrier for operating in space.

The program began operations with its first satellite, Binar-1, in September 2021. This was less than a year into solar cycle 25 when solar activity was relatively low.

In these conditions, the ten-centimetre cube satellite started at an altitude of 420km and survived a full 364 days in orbit.

The program’s follow-up mission – Binar-2, 3, and 4 – were three equally sized CubeSats. However, they were expected to last approximately six months owing to the extra surface area from new deployable solar arrays and a forecast increase in solar activity.

Instead, they only made it to two months before burning up. While cube satellite missions are relatively cheap, the premature ending of a mission will always be costly. This is even more true for commercial satellites, highlighting the need for more accurate space weather forecasting.

The good news is the Sun will calm down again. Despite the current unexpectedly high solar activity, it will likely slow down by 2026, and is expected to return to a solar minimum in 2030.

While this was not an explicit goal of the mission, the Binar Space Program has now poignantly demonstrated the dramatic effects of solar activity on space operations.

While the untimely loss of Binar-2, 3 and 4 was unfortunate, work has already begun on future missions. They are expected to launch into far more forgiving space weather.

Kyle McMullan, PhD Candidate in Aerospace Engineering, Curtin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

COP 29 finance focus

The COP29 climate talks are about to kick off in Baku, Azerbaijan. Here’s what to expect

Matt McDonald, The University of Queensland

The next major United Nations meeting on climate change, known as COP29, is about to get underway in Baku, Azerbaijan. These annual meetings are the key international summits as the world attempts to address the unfolding climate crisis.

The talks this year are crucial as climate change worsens. In recent years, a series of climate-fuelled disasters and extreme events, from Australia’s bushfires to Spain’s floods, have wrought havoc around the world.

What’s more, the continuing upward trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions suggests the window to limit warming 1.5°C is almost closed. And the re-election of United States President Donald Trump casts a pall over global climate action.

So, let’s take a look at the agenda for this vital COP meeting – and how we can gauge its success or failure.

The big issue: climate finance

COP stands for Conference of the Parties, and refers to the nearly 200 nations that have signed up to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Like last year’s conference in Dubai, the choice to hold this year’s meeting in Baku is controversial. Critics say Azerbaijan’s status as a “petro-state” with a questionable human rights record means it is not a suitable host.

Nevertheless, the meeting is crucial. COP29 has been dubbed the “finance COP”. The central focus is likely to be a much bigger target for climate finance – a mechanism by which wealthy countries provide funding to help poorer countries with their clean energy transition and to strengthen their climate resilience.

At the Copenhagen COP talks in 2009, developed countries committed to collectively providing US$100 billion a year for climate finance. This was seen as the big outcome of otherwise unsuccessful talks – but these targets are not being met.

The meeting also represents an opportunity to engage the private sector to play a bigger role in driving investment in the renewable energy transition.

But controversial questions remain. Who should be giving money and receiving it? And how do we ensure wealthy countries actually make good on their commitments?

The big outcome from last year’s COP was the establishment of a fund for unavoidable loss and damage experienced by vulnerable states as a result of climate effects. We’ve since seen some progress in clarifying how it will work.

But the US$700 million committed to the fund is far short of what is already required – and finance required is certain to increase over time. One estimate suggested US$580 billion will be needed by 2030 to cover climate-induced loss and damage.

Alongside these issues, the Baku talks will hopefully see some movement on adaptation finance, enabling further funds for building climate resilience in developing countries. To date, contributions and commitments have been well short of the goal set in 2021.

A final issue will be how to clarify rules around carbon markets, especially on the controversial topic of whether nations can use carbon trading to meet their Paris Agreement emission cut targets.

Talks on the latter have been stalled for years. Some analysts see movement on carbon markets as crucial for building momentum for the transition from fossil fuels.

Storm clouds over Baku

By far the biggest shadow over the Baku talks is the election of Republican Donald Trump as United States president.

Trump famously withdrew the US from the climate agreement in 2016, and has declared climate change as “one of the greatest scams of all time”.

Trump’s re-election will significantly affect US cooperation on climate change at a time when the stakes for the planet could barely be higher.

More broadly, geopolitical tensions and conflicts – from Gaza to Ukraine – also risk crowding out the international agenda and undermining the chance of cooperation between key players.

This especially applies to Russia and China, both of which are crucial to international climate efforts.

At past COPs, difficult geopolitics elsewhere haven’t been fatal for cooperation on climate policy – but it does make things harder. For this reason, Azerbaijan has called for a “truce” in global conflicts to coincide with the conference.

National commitments loom large at Baku

This COP represents the last big climate talks before national governments have to publicly state their new emission cut goals – known as “nationally determined contributions” – which are due in February 2025.

A few big players – such as Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates – have already indicated they’ll be announcing their new targets at Baku.

There will also be plenty of pressure on other nations to ramp up their targets. That’s because existing commitments put the world far off track to meeting the globally agreed target of limiting planetary warming to 1.5°C – a threshold beyond which devastating climate harms are expected.

The host nation Azerbaijan is also keen to increase transparency around reporting obligations for countries, to make it easier to track progress against emissions targets.

What about Australia?

Australia will almost certainly not be outlining a new emissions target in Baku. It has already signalled it may announce its updated targets after the February 2025 deadline.

For Australia, the main issue at Baku may be whether we – alongside at least one Pacific country – will be announced as the hosts of COP31 in 2026. Australia is tipped to win, but Turkey is a significant competitor.

What does success look like?

Azerbaijan sees agreement on a new collective quantified goal for climate finance as the most important outcome of the conference.

This and other finance outcomes will be important in ensuring a fair distribution of costs from the impact of climate change and the necessary energy transition.

Action on long stalled carbon trading cooperation would also be a win, and could turbocharge the global energy transition.

But real success would come in the form of significant new emissions targets and explicit endorsement of the need to move away from fossil fuels. Sadly, the latter is not prominent on the Baku agenda.

Humanity has run out of time to prevent climate change, and we are already seeing real damage. But an opportunity remains to minimise the future harm. We must pursue urgent and sustained international action, regardless of who is in the White House.

Matt McDonald, Professor of International Relations, The University of Queensland

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Remembrance Day 2024 - the 11th of November

                                                       Shutterstock - Australian War Memorial

 

Remembrance Day or Armistice Day commemorates the end of fighting for the First World War (WWI) when hostilities between Germany and the Allies ended on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918 on the Western Front. Germany signed the Armistice agreement with the Allies at 5.45 AM that day. Since then, every year at the same time, day and month, a minute's silence is observed and the last post is played in memory of those who gave their lives.

Lest we forget.

Lowy Institute analysis of a second Trump presidency in the United States

                                             Shutterstock Donald J Trump

The Lowy Institute, is an Australian thank tank with a global outlook and has produced a detailed interactive set of resources on the possible directions of the second presidency of Donald J Trump in the United States. It was developed in August by a team of experts in different fields before the 2024 presidential election. The information presented covers a range of issues such as international relations between the US and various regions (Australia, China, South-East Asia, Middle East, Ukraine), global climate policy, the world economy and the multilateral system. It can be found at the link below:

Lowy Institute: Donald Trump 2nd Presidency

US Election 2024 - Trump and Republican Party win with clear result

                                                Shutterstock Donald J Tump in 2024

The US Presidential and Congressional Elections (and a multitude of other elected positions across the United States) have concluded. Trump was the clear winner in the presidential ballot securing well over the 270 electoral college votes with a minimum of 295 with one state still in counting at the date of this blog entry. The Republican Party looks to have succeeded in gaining a majority in both houses of Congress.

• 49 of the 51 states have been called and Trump received 72,829,362 votes (or 51%) compared to Kamala Harris who received 68,195135 votes (48%).  Donald Trump won both the popular vote and the electoral college.

• In the Senate, which still has two positions under counting, the Republicans hold at least 53 seats, an increase of 4 while the Democrats hold 45 seat being a decrease of 4.  A majority in the Senate is 50 seats so the Republicans have achieved that threshold.

• In the House of Representatives, the results are not fully completed. At the moment Republicans hold 210 seats (a gain of two seats) while the Democrats hold 198 seats (a reduction of 2). There are still 27 seats being counted as of today. The majority for this House is 218 seats which has not yet been achieved but it is considered to be a likely Republican win.

A significant number of polls conducted during the campaign were inaccurate with only a handful reflecting the overall trend often citing that the result would be close. There was a general theme that Trump could and most likely would win however the magnitude of that result was often under-estimated. A number of political commentators and experienced journalists in both the US and overseas did correctly predict a Trump win.

State of the Climate Report 2024 - Continuing grim evidence

                                                                     BOM/CSIRO 2024

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and scientific research organisation, CSIRO, have released their 8th biennial State of the Climate Report. The findings, based on analysis and collation of a range of local and international data sources continues to provide a stark picture of the advance of climate change and its impact on this country.  In releasing the results in this report, the agencies advised that there is only around 7 years left to mitigate and manage greenhouse gas emissions otherwise temperature increases above 1.5C will occur. This warning like so many others, will need to feed into the  United Nations COP 29 conference later this month.  What is abundantly clear from all the reports on climate change across the world is that the timeline for substantial change cannot be 2050. Twenty five years away is too late and the revised target of 2030 is more aligned with the actual climate change data.

A summary of the report findings is listed -

• Australia's climate has warmed by and average of 1.51 +/- 0.23 C since national records commenced in 1900
• Sea surface temperature has increased by an average of 1.08 C since 1900
• The warming has led to an increase in the freqauency of extreme heat events over land and in the oceans
• In the south-west of Australia there has been a decrease of around 16% in April to October rainfall since 1970. Across the same region May to July rainfall has seen the largest reduction by around 20% since 1970
• In the south-east of Australia, there has been a decrease of around 9% in April to October rainfall since 1994
• Heavy short-term rainfall events are becoming more intense
• There has been an increase in extreme fire weather and a longer fire season across large parts of the country since the 1950s
• Snow depth, snow cover and number of snow days have decreased in alpine regions cince the late 1950s
• Oceans around Australia are becoming more acidic with change happening faster in recent decades
• Sea levels are rising around Australia including more frequent extreme high levels that increase the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.

The Report can be accessed at this link: State of-the-Climate 2024

US Presidential election - end of campaign to 5 November 2024 - updated on 5 November 2024

                                                                                   Shutterstock

The US election period is drawing to a close and polling day is almost here on November 5. As of today, 68.3 million people have already voted either in postal votes or in-person at early voting centres. 

In Australia, most media-based commentators and political science analysts are increasingly of the view that a Trump victory is more likely, even by a small margin. This is entirely guesswork and despite a multitude of polls and interviews with voters, no clear picture can be established. A Trump victory would not be due to the merits of the Trump campaign itself and only partially (in a very small measure) the candidate himself. It has a lot to do with a range of factors as below:

The electoral college system: Within the US, the actual electoral college system favours the Republican Party with smaller states have a disproportionate weighting of value of votes. Some of these states have voted Republican far more than Democrat with occasional cross-over change for candidates such as Barack Obama, Bill Clinton or Joe Biden. A candidate can decisively win the overall vote in the US but lose by not gaining enough votes in smaller states and thus losing all the electoral college votes for that state.

Legacy policy impacts: immigration is a white-hot issue in the United States and one that was not resolved during the Biden period. Biden's action in rolling back Trump policies led to a large number of migrants crossing the US border illegally and still more gathering on the border with Mexico. Biden and the Democrats sought to remedy this situation through a bi-partisan border and national security bill in May 2024. The draft legislation had been agreed by both the Republican and Democrat parties but Trump intervened and directed the Republicans not to support the bill. As a result the issue was not resolved and the problem continued giving Trump additional political leverage.

In-built prejudices: Vice President Harris is both a woman and of migrant descent. There are well established prejudices in the US about her gender and race. Whether sufficient numbers of US voters can be galvanised to enable her to win the ballot thus overcoming this situation is yet to be determined. Within a number of the key eight swing states, gender and race influence voter perceptions and could prove a major stumbling block for Harris. Male Afro-American voters for example, have indicated support for Trump due to perceptions that he is a strong man. Trump's campaign team have run a hyper-masculine campaign underpinning this perception. In addition, Trump's campaign has focussed on the mantra of ''outrage" blaming other communities for problems, reminiscent of 1930s Germany and rallies held in that country at that time.

Economics of the US: a key impression amongst voters is that the US economy is going backwards and interest rates are still increasing. This is not true and the US central bank, the Fed, has been reducing interest rates as the US economy is quite strong with a stable jobs market. In October 2024, 12,000 new jobs were created. However for the average US voter, day-to-day life still seems unaffordable and increasingly costly. Trump has promoted a view of economic malaise and the loss of jobs due to other countries/globalisation in the US despite the converse being true and this campaign tactic has been successful to a large degree with his core voter support.

November 5, 2024 beckons.....

UPDATED on 5 November 2024

Voting has been been occuring on polling day in the US. Over 80 million voters have now voted in the pre-poll (postal and in person at voting centres). The election contest continues to be impossible to call between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald J Tump. There have been some surprising late poll data that came to light in Iowa which showed support for Harris increasing in an otherwise Republican State however whether this is replicated in the ballot box is yet to be determined.