New Year 2019 beckons

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As 2018 ends and 2019 starts, there are strong grounds for caution as to what the next 12 months will be like and what events may transpire.

The latest Economic Conditions Snapshot, December 2018 from McKinsey & Co shows increasing pessimism  about the overall economic outlook from executives around the world whether reflecting on their own domestic situation or globally.  While there is some glimmer of optimism in India and Latin America, overall executives are glum about the next 12 months whether in developed-economies or emerging economies.

The key risks are defined as being related to policy and politics and are considered 'the most pressing threats'.  The most commonly cited examples being trade policy, a China economic slow-down and the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union. Transitions in political leadership and geopolitical instability are the second most cited concern. Of particular note, rising interest rates have largely fallen ranking only fifth of the five most pressing issues.

Happy New Year !

Australian business strategies - disruptive digital technology

The Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD) completed its annual Directors Update series in the last quarter of 2016 providing an opportunity to hear what strategic priorities, challenges and forward focus, company directors should monitor in the year ahead. Of particular importance was the high level of attention paid to disruptive digital technology and what is termed the 'Fourth Industrial Revolution'  (best described as the increasing and rapid convergence of digital, biological and physical technologies).

Examples of the new technologies include:

• sensor technology and the internet of things: such as drones, satellites and home objects,
• big data and real-time mobile access to information: such as online advice and rating of health providers, wearable in health insurance,
• platform businesses which directly link providers and consumers such as Airbnb and Uber,
• cognitive computing and artificial intelligence (IA),
• automation and robotics: driverless trucks and cars,
• virtual reality (VR) technologies which use interactive computer graphics to create user perceptions of virtual worlds. A corresponding development is augmented reality (AR) technologies which can be applied through a smartphone,
• advanced machine learning (AML) which enables computers to discover insights and patterns from data using sophisticated algorithms,
• industrial analytics which use sensor data across a range of applications to improve efficiency and responsiveness.
• blockchain distributed database technology which creates the capability to record transactions between parties without third party involvement.

All of these changes however are moving faster than adjustments to the governance and oversight functions necessary to provide confidence to the wider community that sufficient safeguards exist. For example, privacy concerns and protection of personal information remains vulnerable with the new data sharing. Risk management systems currently used are poorly equipped to measure and mitigate business risks where the systems themselves are not fully understood. Related to this aspect, the level of expertise required to understand the functionality and operational impacts of the new technologies is not widely held by a large number of people. In short, these are but a few of the main concerns yet available solutions remain limited. The reliance to date, on proof-of-concept appraisals prior to adoption of a new technology is an insufficient process and Australian businesses would do well to devise strategies which encompass a greater risk evaluation framework.  

Latest Economic Conditions Snapshot from McKinsey & Company

Global management consultancy firm, McKinsey & Co have released their latest Global Survey of executives opinions on global and domestic economic activity. The findings confirm a neutral increasingly negative expectation has grown representing a shift from positions taken in December 2014 which were more optimistic.

In emerging markets (mainly developing countries) half of the respondent executives report that economic conditions at home have worsened over the past 6 months and this trend is expected to continue. Executives in developed Asia and North America also report waning optimism and are less bullish now about their home economies than earlier this year. Latin America has the most negative views about economic conditions since December 2013. Oddly enough executives in the Eurozone were slightly more upbeat despite fairly stagnant conditions and default concerns. McKinsey have also updated their four possible scenarios for long-term economic growth being:

• "Pockets of growth" representing uneven, volatile but high levels of global growth;
• "Global downshift" being a situation  in which growth is lower but resilient;
• "Global synchronicity" representing a period of globally distributed  growth and broad increases in productivity;
• "Rolling regional crises" which covers volatile and weak global growth.

Executives ranked "pockets of growth" or "global downshift" as the most likely scenarios over the next decade. The primary top threats have been identified as low consumer demand and geopolitical instability at a global level of which geopolitical instability has a staggering 75% support. Other primary risks to global growth are volatile exchange rates and sovereign-debt defaults which run as close seconds.