2013 - Outlook

2013 commences with many uncertainties encompassing many global economies, volatile international affairs and the ever present, ongoing threats to the environment. Little has changed from 2012 with weak economies in the United States, the European Union and Japan. Conflicts continue in Syria and Afghanistan with no end in sight for resolution and the spectre of climate change hovers over the globe. On the positive side, efforts continue to  manage the current  high debt levels in the developed world and end dates exist for some of the serious military conflicts. Yet despite these actions, 2013 starts from a net negative position with the prospect that the best outcome for the next 12 months is one where no situation becomes any worse.

Christmas 2012

Christmas has a number of special customs and practices drawn from various sources whether religious, pagan or simply cultural. One of the most widely accepted practices is the erection of a Christmas tree, the origins of which can be found far back in the period of the Renaissance era during Christian celebrations and with the early guilds in Germany and Livonia (now known as Latvia and Estonia). The first evidence of decorated trees associated with Christmas Day were trees in guildhalls decorated with sweets to be enjoyed by the apprentices and children in the guild halls. In 1441, 1442, 1510 and 1514, the Brotherhood of Blackheads erected a tree for the holidays in their guild houses in Tallinn and Riga. In the early 19th century, the custom became popular among the nobility and spread to royal courts across Europe as far as Russia. 

The tree was traditionally decorated with edibles such as apples, nuts or dates. In the 18th century, it began to be illuminated by candles which evolved in the 20th Century to being small electric lights with ever more elaborate forms of decorations. Customary practice is to place presents to family and loved ones under thr tree for discovery on Christmas Day. As this year draws to a close with many conflicts and challenges across the globe, the tree represents a simple link to the past which transcends across time to the future with the concept of life and generosity of spirit.

 

Where to now for Africa's Elephants ?

The estimates of the elephant population in Africa paint a grim picture of events taking place on that continent - from an estimated population and range of 1.3 million elephants in 1979, by 2007 the number had declined to 472,000 to 690,000. In many parts of Africa, elephants are now dying faster than they are being born almost entirely due to the impact of poaching. The Kenyan Wildlife Service found in a census this year that the elephant population in the Samburu / Laikopia region had lost over 1,000 elephants in just four years as the animals are slaughtered for their ivory. Similar events are occuring across several African countries. In Central and Western Africa, poaching accounts for between 84 % and 90 % of all elephant deaths while in Eastern and Southern Africa, the percentages are 51 % to 59 % of all deaths. These are extraordinary numbers and if maintained will lead to the extinction of the species in the wild in Africa within a relatively short time-frame. Poachers, including heavily armed groups use AK-47 assault rifles and RPG rocket propelled grenades to kill whole herds with the ivory predominantly being exported to Asia (China, Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines).

DOHA 2012 - Climate Change Negotiations

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) took centre stage this week when the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC to the Kyoto Protocol opened on Monday, 26 November 2012. COP18, as it is commonly referred, continues for two weeks until Friday, 7 December in Doha, Qatar, and expectations of major developments in various negotiations to mitigate the impact of climate change are very low. Ever since the debacle at the Copenhagen conference in 2009 (COP15), the reality of the quite substantial divisions between various groups of nations has been clearly apparent. The issue remains what can possibly provide a future step beyond the Kyoto protocol than to have some form of agreement such as Kyoto II. However genuine agreement remains elusive even with recent reports such as the World Bank warning of the a serious risk of a 4 degree Celsius rise in temperature actually occuring. The research findings of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) at COP18 that the permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere is melting should provide an incentive for an agreement to be reached. But will there be any such agreement ?

Wildlife corridors - more hope than ecological reality

One of the fundamental challenges confronting ecologists and wildlife conservators is finding an acceptable balance between preservation of natural habitat versus the intrusion of human activity usually related to economic and development objectives. The answer, it has seemed, lies with the creation of wildlife corridors which enables isolated ecosystems to be linked by 'corridors' of under-developed or undeveloped tracts of land/forest/bush. The theory is based on the idea that wild animals will move through the corridors and interbreed with other threatened populations of the same species and thus make threatened groups more resilient. How much evidence exists however that this process actually works ? In reality the evidence is thin and limited. For example. in the Brazilian Amazon, the corridors are only required by law to be 60 metres in width yet studies of birds and animals in the region found that a width of 400 metres was required. As a result, there has been no success with the corridors as they currently exist.

The seven coutnries of Central America and Mexico have all agreed to join together the many small protected areas in their borders to form the MesoAmerican Biological Corridor. Unless there is considerable more knowledge and data on optimum corridor size and biological diversity, it's unlikely this initiative will succeed.

World Bank calls for action on climate change

The World Bank has joined the call for greater action on climate change with the release of its' report titled "Turn Down the Heat". According to the Bank, the planet is plausibly on track to reach 4 degrees Celsius in warming above pre-industrial levels as early as 2060 which is double the 2 degrees Celsius threshold established as the target by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to mitigate climate change. A world with a 4 degree C increase would experience major floods, unprecedented heatwaves and negative impacts on ecosystems and human services. This reflects the warning conveyed in the IPCC's 4th Assessment in 2007 and the IPCC has already indicated that the 5th Assessment Report due in 2013 will reinforce the view that current CO2 emissions have been increasing rather than declining. The World Bank warns that a 4 degree C warming would have stronger impacts in some parts of the planet than others, particularly the Middle East, North Africa, the Mediterranean and the contiguous United States which would have summers hotter than the most extreme heatwaves to date. For Australia, the interior of the continent would be uninhabitable during the Summer months with knock-on effects on water, agriculture and population distribution. The acidification of the oceans would also mean impacts on coral reefs with a corresponding loss of food sources, income, tourism and shoreline protection - all of which apply to Australia.

The report makes sobering reading but equally underscores the critical message that there is still time to act, but only if the action is today and not put off until tomorrow.

 

The full report can be accessed at this link: http://bit.ly/UO5GNq

Mining in the Arctic - the growing environmental challenge

The Leiv Eiriksson sent to Greenland's Baffin Bay

The constant reduction in ice coverage in the Arctic have not only opened up the North East passage but created opportunities for the exploitation of the oil, gas and mineral reserves found in what was once a too remote and difficult region. September 2012 was significant as it marked the lowest seasonal coverage of ice ever recorded being 3.41 million square kilometres. In terms of mineral resources, the Arctic (including Greenland) has considerable deposits including an estimated 90 million barrels of oil (or 13 per cent of the Earth's remaining total). There are also gas deposits in the Barents and Karens Seas and rare earth elements at Kvanefjeld in Greenland. While there has been, for many years, a small degree of mining present in the region, it is only a matter of time till much more large scale exploration and extraction projects are underway with substantial risks for the environment and the planet.