Paris, terrorism and the level of response

Following the November 13, 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, French president Francois Hollande has vowed that the response from France will be 'merciless'. The degree to which France is able to mount such an action will depend on part on whom the actual perpetrators are (given the direct assailants were all killed during the terrorist assault, the focus moves to discover whom planned, funded and supported the action). Daesh have claimed responsibility for the attacks however it remains to be established whether the attacks were executed by external persons coming into France, internal cadres and/or local radicalised residents operating within the French Republic or a combination of both. Early reports of a Syrian passport being found on one of the terrorists and transit through Greece by that person only provide minor confirmation of an external link.

France's involvement to date in the global anti-extremist campaign has been measured with its main commitment being the Sahel region of Africa. In the Syria/Iraq region, French aircraft have flown more than 1,285 missions against Daesh targets in Iraq but only two in Syria. There are six French fighter aircraft operating from the United Arab Emirates and six fighter aircraft stationed in Jordan. The nuclear aircraft carrier, Charles de Gaulle is being deployed for a support role to the region as previously announced on November 4th. The military assets therefore are limited at the present time.

As global intelligence organisation, Stratfor comments -

"France has numerous options for retaliation at its disposal, but its response will be conditioned by who was ultimately responsible. If it is found that the Islamic State core group was indeed behind the Nov. 13 attack, France will likely ramp up its Syrian air operations. The skies over Syria, however, are already congested with coalition and Russian aircraft. With this in mind, the French may choose to retaliate by focusing instead on the Islamic State in Iraq, or perhaps even other Islamic State provinces in places such as Libya. Another option would be to increase French programs to train and support anti-Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria, or even to conduct commando strikes against key leadership nodes. France also has the option of deploying an expeditionary force like it did in the Sahel, although that would probably require outside airlift capacity from NATO allies, especially the United States."

UN Climate Change Negotiations: Conference of the Parties - Paris - 2015

The latest round of climate change negotiations are soon to start later this month running from 30 November to early December 2015. The twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the eleventh session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) will take place from 30 November to 11 December 2015, in Paris, France. While there has been some level of doubt as to the likelihood of achieving agreement, research by the United Nations has found that considerable action has been undertaken across a range of functions by most of the parties to the Framework Convention. The chances of a Copenhagen-style COP failure are significantly less than previous years with widespread acceptance of the target of a temperature increase of no greater than 2 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial baseline.Yet many doubts exist on the capacity of various countries to deliver fully on their stated intentions. A significant number of countries are still reliant on fossil fuels for energy generation with the resultant use of coal and emissions of CO2.

The information hub for COP21 is accessed here: 

COP 21 Paris Information Hub

A copy of the UNs synthesis report from the Parties to the Framework Convention is accessed here:

UN Report - Synthesis of responses from the parties

Climate Change and Health - report from The Lancet Climate Change Commission

The Greenhouse Gas Exchange and effects on health

While much of the attention in the debate on climate change has been focussed on greenhouse gases, notably CO2 emissions, ice melt, sea level rise and the increased magnitude of adverse and/or extreme weather conditions, an equally critical impact is on human health.  The Lancet in the United Kingdom established the Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change which has published a series of periodic in-depth policy and analysis reports focussing on the effect of climate change on health, the latest of which in 2015 has reinforced the need for concerted Government level initiatives.

As noted by the Commission, the principal pathways linking climate change to health outcomes are categorised as direct or indirect mechanisms which interact with social dynamics to produce health outcomes. The direct risks are extreme weather  events and resultant storms, floods, droughts or heatwaves. The indirect risks are mediated through changes in the biosphere (such as the burden of disease, distribution of disease vectors or food availability) while others occur through social processes (such as migration and conflict) In summary, therefore there are three pillars which interact with each other influenced by factors such as changes in land use, crop yield, ecosystems, global development and demographic processes (shown in the diagram below). 

The 3 Pillars concept of interaction

An example of such interconnectivity, can be seen with rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns altering the viable  distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes carrying dengue and malaria. This is already the case with malaria and dengue reaching higher altitude highland regions which were previously unaffected. Changing weather patterns have a direct correlation to availability of non contaminated drinking water - both storms and droughts increase the risk of contamination and provide the conditions of bacterial growth. Ground level ozone (GLO) and particulate air pollutants are also strongly affected by climate change with increases in exposure to both being a known hazard.

The report can be accessed at the link below:

Climate Commission Report - Climate Change and Health

Exhibition Review - Sculpture by the Sea - Sydney, November 2015

forest by Deborah Sleeman

The 2015 Sculpture by the Sea is no less impressive than previous years with crowds climbing the narrow paths between Tamarama and Bondi beach for a view of 105 works by sculptors from local, interstate and 18 different countries. Now in its 19th year,  this annual exhibition continues to be a highly successful event going from strength to strength. In terms of accessibility, the exhibition ticks all the boxes - a free public exhibition set in a dramatic, evocative  location with diverse subject material. 

The artists chosen are a wide mix ranging from highly accomplished, internationally recognised sculptors through to younger artists just starting out in their creative careers. Each brings to the location their own insight into how to interact with the environment in which the exhibition is set. Some sculptors come and work on-site in a collaborative synthesis with the coastal context whilst others prefer to work in their studios and transport often large, heavy works from a distance. This year's exhibition had a strong Australian representation with NSW in particular having a large contingent. The exhibition ends on 8 November 2015.

intervention by Michael Van Dam

Ionis by Robert Hague

       

Exhibition Review - The Greats - Masterpieces from the National Galleries of Scotland - Art Gallery of NSW - October 2015

The Skating Minister - Reverent Robert Walker

For this year's Summer exhibition, the Art Gallery of NSW has secured a definite crowd pleaser, being The Greats - Masterpieces from the National Galleries of Scotland which has been on tour in the United States, coast to coast from New York to San Francisco. The pictures on display have also been augmented by additional works drawn from the collection of the Art Gallery of NSW itself.

The exhibition is presented in 7 rooms at the Art Gallery of NSW and feature over 70 selected works by Masters such as  Botticelli, Titian, El Greco, Veronese, Velazquez, Rembrandt, Boucher, Constable, Gainsborough, Scottish artists Ramsay and Raeburn and the unmistakeble images of the impressionists, Monet, Cezanne, Pissaro and post impressionist Gauguin. The National Galleries of Scotland have carefully selected the paintings for the tour and notable inclusions are Botticelli's The Virgin adoring the sleeping Christ Child (The Wemyss Madonna) circa 1485 and Velazquez' An old woman cooking eggs 1618. A work by Rembrandt A woman in bed provides some amusement as no-one is actually sure whom she is.

Lady Agnew of Locknaw

Paintings closely associated with the National Galleries of Scotland are included most notably The Reverend Robert Walker skating on Duddingston Loch  by Henry Raeburn (arguably) [above] and John Singer Sargent's Lady Agnew of Locknaw [right].  Both of these works are now found on all manner of items from bookmarks, keyrings, mouse pads, fridge magnets, carry bags, book covers, t-shirts and so on, becoming virtual corporate logos of the Galleries themselves.

A feature of the Sydney exhibition is the generous allowance of space for each major painting to allow individual appreciation without the sense of crowding. In contrast, visitors to the National Galleries of Scotland in Edinburgh find that many of the rooms are jam packed with works stretching up to the ceiling.

The exhibition runs from 24 October 2015 until 14 February 2016.

Concert Review - Fleetwood Mac - On with the Show - Sydney allphones arena - October 2015

John McVie and Stevie Nicks on stage

Age has not wearied them but ...the years have limited the ability to reach the high notes in the vocals - Fleetwood Mac's potentially last tour nonetheless again demonstrates the musical mastery of each of the band members despite the passage of years. The return of singer/songwriter Christine McVie after sixteen years reforms the completeness and symmetry of the group, an aspect openly acknowledged by drummer, Mick Fleetwood. Performing at the allphones arena in Sydney,  Fleetwood Mac performed their best known songs mainly from their most successful albums for their adoring fans, many of whom are now decidedly very middle-aged. Favourites such as Dreams, You make loving fun, Gold dust woman and a melodic rendition of Songbird by Christine McVie came from the Rumours album. Seven Wonders and Little Lies from the Tango in the Night album reminded the audience of the melodic texture of vocals with all the band singing together. Some aspects of the show did appear somewhat so so, with Sara, Gypsy and Say you love me being merely played rather than performed. Perhaps that's understandable as the Sydney gig follows over 130 other cities across the US and Europe on the current tour. To their rusted-on fans all is forgiven for any flatness in the show as they sang along enthusiastically with the band.

Perhaps the only element which should be changed is Mick Fleetwood's solo on the drums. This has become a ritual in all of the Fleetwood Mac concerts but seems more like bang-the-drum than precision percussion. In contrast, Lindsay Buckingham's solos with the acoustic guitar demonstrated his skill with the instrument while he remained on stage for the full two and a half hour concert.

How long can they continue ? Fleetwood Mac is almost a band from another era having formed in 1968 and achieved international success in 1975 with the eponymous album Fleetwood Mac followed in 1977 with the critically acclaimed album, Rumours. Mick Fleetwood is now aged 68, Lindsay Buckingham 66, Stevie Nicks 67, John McVie 69 and Christine McVie 72. Various comments from band members have indicated that the end is nigh in 2015 at least in terms of touring. But would missing the stage prove to be too much of an allure ?

Climate change - the myth of a hiatus in rising temperatures

Significant anomalies - NOAA

Assertions made in 2006 contending that there was a 'pause' or hiatus in global warming have been restated repeatedly by climate change sceptics for the past few years, particularly when attempting to rebuff the key reports such as the Fifth Assessment Report by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). New data from the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NAOO) has shown that global temperature change has continued unabated. There is no hiatus.

The year-to-date temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.53°F (0.85°C) above the 20^th century average. This was the highest for January–September in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2014 by 0.19°F (0.12°C).

The average Arctic sea ice extent for September 2015 was 720,000 square miles (28.88 percent) below the 1981–2010 average. This was the fourth smallest September extent since records began in 1979, according to analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center using data from NOAA and NASA. Below-average sea ice was observed across most regions of the Arctic, while near-average sea ice was observed in the Barents Sea.

The report from the NOAA can be located at the link below:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Report