US Election 2024 - Trump and Republican Party win with clear result

                                                Shutterstock Donald J Tump in 2024

The US Presidential and Congressional Elections (and a multitude of other elected positions across the United States) have concluded. Trump was the clear winner in the presidential ballot securing well over the 270 electoral college votes with a minimum of 295 with one state still in counting at the date of this blog entry. The Republican Party looks to have succeeded in gaining a majority in both houses of Congress.

• 49 of the 51 states have been called and Trump received 72,829,362 votes (or 51%) compared to Kamala Harris who received 68,195135 votes (48%).  Donald Trump won both the popular vote and the electoral college.

• In the Senate, which still has two positions under counting, the Republicans hold at least 53 seats, an increase of 4 while the Democrats hold 45 seat being a decrease of 4.  A majority in the Senate is 50 seats so the Republicans have achieved that threshold.

• In the House of Representatives, the results are not fully completed. At the moment Republicans hold 210 seats (a gain of two seats) while the Democrats hold 198 seats (a reduction of 2). There are still 27 seats being counted as of today. The majority for this House is 218 seats which has not yet been achieved but it is considered to be a likely Republican win.

A significant number of polls conducted during the campaign were inaccurate with only a handful reflecting the overall trend often citing that the result would be close. There was a general theme that Trump could and most likely would win however the magnitude of that result was often under-estimated. A number of political commentators and experienced journalists in both the US and overseas did correctly predict a Trump win.

US Presidential election - end of campaign to 5 November 2024 - updated on 5 November 2024

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The US election period is drawing to a close and polling day is almost here on November 5. As of today, 68.3 million people have already voted either in postal votes or in-person at early voting centres. 

In Australia, most media-based commentators and political science analysts are increasingly of the view that a Trump victory is more likely, even by a small margin. This is entirely guesswork and despite a multitude of polls and interviews with voters, no clear picture can be established. A Trump victory would not be due to the merits of the Trump campaign itself and only partially (in a very small measure) the candidate himself. It has a lot to do with a range of factors as below:

The electoral college system: Within the US, the actual electoral college system favours the Republican Party with smaller states have a disproportionate weighting of value of votes. Some of these states have voted Republican far more than Democrat with occasional cross-over change for candidates such as Barack Obama, Bill Clinton or Joe Biden. A candidate can decisively win the overall vote in the US but lose by not gaining enough votes in smaller states and thus losing all the electoral college votes for that state.

Legacy policy impacts: immigration is a white-hot issue in the United States and one that was not resolved during the Biden period. Biden's action in rolling back Trump policies led to a large number of migrants crossing the US border illegally and still more gathering on the border with Mexico. Biden and the Democrats sought to remedy this situation through a bi-partisan border and national security bill in May 2024. The draft legislation had been agreed by both the Republican and Democrat parties but Trump intervened and directed the Republicans not to support the bill. As a result the issue was not resolved and the problem continued giving Trump additional political leverage.

In-built prejudices: Vice President Harris is both a woman and of migrant descent. There are well established prejudices in the US about her gender and race. Whether sufficient numbers of US voters can be galvanised to enable her to win the ballot thus overcoming this situation is yet to be determined. Within a number of the key eight swing states, gender and race influence voter perceptions and could prove a major stumbling block for Harris. Male Afro-American voters for example, have indicated support for Trump due to perceptions that he is a strong man. Trump's campaign team have run a hyper-masculine campaign underpinning this perception. In addition, Trump's campaign has focussed on the mantra of ''outrage" blaming other communities for problems, reminiscent of 1930s Germany and rallies held in that country at that time.

Economics of the US: a key impression amongst voters is that the US economy is going backwards and interest rates are still increasing. This is not true and the US central bank, the Fed, has been reducing interest rates as the US economy is quite strong with a stable jobs market. In October 2024, 12,000 new jobs were created. However for the average US voter, day-to-day life still seems unaffordable and increasingly costly. Trump has promoted a view of economic malaise and the loss of jobs due to other countries/globalisation in the US despite the converse being true and this campaign tactic has been successful to a large degree with his core voter support.

November 5, 2024 beckons.....

UPDATED on 5 November 2024

Voting has been been occuring on polling day in the US. Over 80 million voters have now voted in the pre-poll (postal and in person at voting centres). The election contest continues to be impossible to call between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald J Tump. There have been some surprising late poll data that came to light in Iowa which showed support for Harris increasing in an otherwise Republican State however whether this is replicated in the ballot box is yet to be determined.

US Presidential election 2024 - the hour glass empties to November 5

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As of the current date, it's now 7 days to the election day (November 5) for the US President, the Houses of Congress and some governorships. Polls of all shapes and sizes have been taken to try and gauge the likely outcome and voter intentions. Some polls have shown the contest between Trump and Harris to be neck-to-neck, others have Harris leading by a single percentage point while still other polls have measured Trump as being marginally ahead. In professional betting platforms, Trump is more favoured than Harris and commentators of all persuasions have given their views about the candidates. It is not possible to predict the outcome is the reality at this moment in time.

36 states offer early voting and 40.7 millions Americans have cast their ballot in the pre-poll period whether through postal voting or in-person at voting centres. The Secretary of State for Georgia expects that 70% of ballots will be cast in that state before the actual polling day. 

From outside of the United States, the contest is perceived as one that intrinsically is about more than the two candidates. It is also about the very viability of democratic functions and institutions in that country. Serious efforts have been made and continue to be made to control and manipulate elections by various measures such as limiting the locations where voters to actually vote, denying their right to vote through various rules of eligibility, trying to invalidate votes cast in methods such as postal voting to name a few. In this respect the ''Make America Great Again" (MAGA) version of the Republican Party is where attention has to remain focussed.