With the US presidential election this year, public opinion polling has been prolific particularly since the annoucnement of US president, Joe Biden that he would not be seeking a second term and nominating Vice President, Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Party candidate.
Other polls on general sentiment have been conducted and underscore the level of unease that is found in the United States at the moment. The Marist Poll is one such survey that identified that around 50 per cent of people polled had a pessimistic outlook on the current situation of possible internal conflict n the US. The poll was conducted prior to the announcement of President Biden's withdrawal from the election on 21 July 2024.
How was the survey done ?
The survey of 1,192 adults was conducted April 16th through April 18th,
2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the
United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live
interviewers or online.
Results
More than 160 years after the Civil War began, nearly half of Americans think that it is either very likely or likely that they will see a second civil war. Perceptions about the possibility of another domestic conflict break along partisan, generational, racial and gender lines.
Electrical Trades Union protest 2024 (c) Sentinel Owl
The formation and evolution of modern trade unions in the workplace dates back to the late 19th Century and the rapid changes in society brought by the Industrial Revolution. Prior to this, trade guilds of artisans have been shown to have existed as far back as the first century AD of the Roman Empire. The advent of modern capitalism through the industrial revolution brought about significant changes in the basis of ''work' whereby the owners of capital engaged workers to provide labour for services and/or production of goods. The workers surrendered part of their rights of freedom and agency to take instructions from their employer (or master) in order to earn a wage. This process and unequal level of power for workers in turn led to the organisation of labour into unions to enable workers to protect themselves from complete exploitation. Over the past two centuries, these organisations have envolved and changed with the ebb and flow of economies, technological innovation and changing industrial relations laws.
Australia has long history of trade unions, derived in part from the influence of Mother England and the previous colonial period. Membership of trade unions has been declining as shown by research data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. As at December 2022 -
12.5% of employees in the total workforce were trade union members
Since 1992, the proportion of employees who were trade union members has fallen from 41% to 12.5%
The Education and training industry (30%) and the Professionals occupation group (19%) had the highest rates of trade union membership.
Nonetheless these organisations remain a potent and relevant party in the industrial relations landscape.
This year, the Electrical Trades Union (ETU) representing the electricians and power industry workers has staged their campaign for higher wages via a Log of Claims to energy provider, Ausgrid and placed their protest outside the television studios of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) in Ultimo, Sydney. It's a visually impactful and almost humourous presentation with large inflatables, even as the topic is a serious one (as shown in the images in this posting).
Any night now, a “new star” or nova will appear in the night sky. While it won’t set the sky ablaze, it’s a special opportunity to see a rare event that’s usually difficult to predict in advance.
The star in question is T Coronae Borealis (T CrB, pronounced “T Cor Bor”). It lies in the constellation of the northern crown, prominent in the Northern Hemisphere but also visible in the northern sky from Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand over the next few months.
Most of the time T CrB, which is 3,000 light years away, is much too faint to be seen. But once every 80 years or so, it brightly erupts.
A brand new star suddenly seems to appear, although not for long. Just a few nights later it will have rapidly faded, disappearing back into the darkness.
A burst of life
During the prime of their lives, stars are powered by nuclear fusion reactions deep inside their cores. Most commonly, hydrogen is turned into helium creating enough energy to keep the star stable and shining for billions of years.
But T CrB is well past its prime and is now a stellar remnant known as a white dwarf. Its internal nuclear fire has been quenched, allowing gravity to dramatically compress the dead star.
T CrB also has a stellar companion – a red giant that has puffed up as it enters old age. The white dwarf mops up the swollen red giant’s gas, and this forms what’s known as an accretion disc around the dead star.
The matter keeps piling up on a star that’s already compressed to its limit, forcing a continual rise in pressure and temperature. Conditions become so extreme, they mimic what once would’ve been found inside the star’s core. Its surface ignites in a runaway thermonuclear reaction.
When this happens, the energy released makes T CrB shine 1,500 times brighter than usual. Here on Earth, it briefly appears in the night sky. With this dramatic reset, the star has then expelled the gas and the cycle can begin all over again.
Animation of a nova erupting as thermonuclear reactions ignite on the smaller white dwarf star. Credit: NASA/Conceptual Image Lab/Goddard Space Flight Center.
How do we know it’s due?
T CrB is the brightest of a rare class of recurrent novae that repeat within a hundred years – a time scale that allows astronomers to detect their recurrent nature.
Only ten recurrent novae are currently known, although more novae may be recurrent – just on much greater timescales that aren’t as easily tracked.
The earliest known date of T CrB erupting is from the year 1217, based on observations recorded in a medieval monastic chronicle. It’s remarkable that astronomers can now predict its eruptions so precisely as long as the nova follows its usual pattern.
The star’s two most recent eruptions – in 1866 and 1946 – showed the exact same features. About ten years prior to the eruption, T CrB’s brightness increased a little (known as a high state) followed by a short fading or dip about a year out from the explosion.
T CrB entered its high state in 2015 and the pre-eruption dip was spotted in March 2023, setting astronomers on alert. What causes these phenomena are just some of the current mysteries surrounding T CrB.
How can I see it?
Start stargazing now! It’s a good idea to get used to seeing Corona Borealis as it is now, so that you get the full impact of the “new” star.
Corona Borealis currently reaches its best observing position (known as a meridian transit) around 8:30pm to 9pm local time across Australia and Aotearoa. The farther north you are located, the higher the constellation will be in the sky.
The nova is expected to be a reasonable brightness (magnitude 2.5): about as bright as Imai (Delta Crucis), the fourth brightest star in the Southern Cross. So it will be easy to see even from a city location, if you know where to look.
We won’t have much time
We won’t have long once it goes off. The maximum brightness will only last a few hours; within a week T CrB will have faded and you’ll need binoculars to see it.
It almost certainly will be an amateur astronomer that alerts the professional community to the moment when T CrB outbursts.
These dedicated and knowledgeable people routinely monitor stars from their backyards on the chance of “what if” and therefore fill an important gap in night sky observations.
The American Association of Variable Star Observing (AAVSO) has a log of over 270,000 submitted observations on T CrB alone. Amateur astronomers are collaborating here and around the world to continually monitor T CrB for the first signs of eruption.
Hopefully the nova will erupt as expected sometime before October, because after that Corona Borealis leaves our evening sky in the Southern Hemisphere.
Coral bleaching is becoming much more common as a result of increasingly severe and frequent marine heatwaves. Four global mass bleaching events have happened since 1998. Two of these were in the past decade.
Unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut to slow global warming, our new research shows that, by 2080, coral bleaching will start in spring, rather than late summer. Some events will last into autumn. The Great Barrier Reef’s maximum annual heat stress will double by 2050 if emissions do not slow.
Marine heatwaves stress corals, which then expel the symbiotic algae living in their tissue. These corals are left white and weakened. While not all bleached corals die immediately, prolonged heat stress harms their health and reproduction.
Our research used daily data on sea surface temperatures (instead of monthly data that models typically use) and supercomputing to produce high-resolution projections of marine heatwaves. We showed the risk of coral bleaching will be greatest along the equator. That’s also where the most biodiverse coral reefs are found.
So coral reefs are vital for the health of the ocean and people. They are also among the ecosystems most at risk from climate change.
Longer bleaching season will hit spawning
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration monitors marine heatwaves globally. Seasonal coral bleaching alerts are based on this data. Predicting coral bleaching risk over entire decades has proved much more challenging.
Recent improvements in climate modelling now allow marine heatwaves and coral bleaching risks to be predicted with high accuracy. Using daily projections of heat stress from many global climate models, we show the severity and duration of coral bleaching will soon reach uncharted territory.
By mid-century coral bleaching is expected to start in spring for most of Earth’s reefs, rather than late summer as is typical today. In equatorial regions, corals will be at high risk of bleaching all year round by the end of the century.
In many regions, corals spawn only once a year. These spectacular mass spawning events happen in a single week following a full moon in spring.
By 2040, this spawning event could coincide with severe bleaching risk. This would greatly reduce their reproductive success, causing large-scale coral loss.
We show the future risk of severe coral bleaching is uneven globally.
The greatest risk is along the equator. Equatorial regions are home to the most biodiverse coral reefs, including conservation hotspots such as the Coral Triangle. To make matters worse, marine life in these regions is particularly vulnerable to accelerated climate change.
Many equatorial species are already living at temperatures near their upper tolerance. They also generally have low abilities to move to track shifting climates. This leaves them at high risk of extinction.
Our research shows equatorial regions are set to benefit least from efforts to curb emissions. We expect significant emission cuts will reduce the annual duration of severe bleaching conditions in all areas except these regions.
The projected highest climate impacts coincide with highest social reliance on coral reefs. This will challenge human populations that rely heavily on their local reefs for their livelihoods and nutrition.
Improving coral reef management
Our research identifies Earth’s reef regions that are at lowest risk of increased bleaching. This will help conservation managers and policymakers prioritise efforts to limit loss of coral reef biodiversity.
We predict much less risk of coral bleaching in regions such as the northern coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, Socotra Island (opposite the Gulf of Aden) and Alor Kecil in Indonesia. Seasonal upwellings occur here, bringing cooler water to the surface that’s likely to limit the severity of heatwaves.
These strategies can help maintain healthy coral populations at local scales, particularly if used on reefs where future climate impacts will be lower. By pinpointing these havens, our research will strengthen coral conservation.
Our research includes a user-friendly web-based tool for mapping future coral bleaching. It will help pinpoint locations for effective management interventions.
Curbing greenhouse gas emissions is the main solution to reduce future climate impacts on corals. However, other strategies are also vital to maximise coral reefs’ adaptation to climate change.
With so many high-profile people diagnosed with cancer we are confronted with the stark reality the disease can strike any of us at any time. There are also reports certain cancers are increasing among younger people in their 30s and 40s.
On the positive side, medical treatments for cancer are advancing very rapidly. Survival rates are improving greatly and some cancers are now being managed more as long-term chronic diseases rather than illnesses that will rapidly claim a patient’s life.
The mainstays of cancer treatment remain surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, immunotherapy, targeted therapy and hormone therapy. But there are other treatments and strategies – “adjunct” or supportive cancer care – that can have a powerful impact on a patient’s quality of life, survival and experience during cancer treatment.
Keep moving if you can
Physical exercise is now recognised as a medicine. It can be tailored to the patient and their health issues to stimulate the body and build an internal environment where cancer is less likely to flourish. It does this in a number of ways.
Exercise provides a strong stimulus to our immune system, increasing the number of cancer-fighting immune cells in our blood circulation and infusing these into the tumour tissue to identify and kill cancer cells.
Our skeletal muscles (those attached to bone for movement) release signalling molecules called myokines. The larger the muscle mass, the more myokines are released – even when a person is at rest. However, during and immediately after bouts of exercise, a further surge of myokines is secreted into the bloodstream. Myokines attach to immune cells, stimulating them to be better “hunter-killers”. Myokines also signal directly to cancer cells slowing their growth and causing cell death.
Emerging research evidence indicates exercise might increase the effectiveness of mainstream treatments such as chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Exercise is certainly essential for preparing the patient for any surgery to increase cardio-respiratory fitness, reduce systemic inflammation, and increase muscle mass, strength and physical function, and then rehabilitating them after surgery.
The second “tool” which has a major role in cancer management is psycho-oncology. It involves the psychological, social, behavioural and emotional aspects of cancer for not only the patient but also their carers and family. The aim is to maintain or improve quality of life and mental health aspects such as emotional distress, anxiety, depression, sexual health, coping strategies, personal identity and relationships.
Supporting quality of life and happiness is important on their own, but these barometers can also impact a patient’s physical health, response to exercise medicine, resilience to disease and to treatments.
If a patient is highly distressed or anxious, their body can enter a flight or fight response. This creates an internal environment that is actually supportive of cancer progression through hormonal and inflammatory mechanisms. So it’s essential their mental health is supported.
Chemotherapy can be stressful on the body and emotional reserves.Shutterstock
Putting the good things in: diet
A third therapy in the supportive cancer care toolbox is diet. A healthy diet can support the body to fight cancer and help it tolerate and recover from medical or surgical treatments.
Inflammation provides a more fertile environment for cancer cells. If a patient is overweight with excessive fat tissue then a diet to reduce fat which is also anti-inflammatory can be very helpful. This generally means avoiding processed foods and eating predominantly fresh food, locally sourced and mostly plant based.
Some cancer treatments cause muscle loss. Avoiding processed foods may help.Shutterstock
Muscle loss is a side effect of all cancer treatments. Resistance training exercise can help but people may need protein supplements or diet changes to make sure they get enough protein to build muscle. Older age and cancer treatments may reduce both the intake of protein and compromise absorption so supplementation may be indicated.
Depending on the cancer and treatment, some patients may require highly specialised diet therapy. Some cancers such as pancreatic, stomach, esophageal, and lung cancer can cause rapid and uncontrolled drops in body weight. This is called cachexia and needs careful management.
Other cancers and treatments such as hormone therapy can cause rapid weight gain. This also needs careful monitoring and guidance so that, when a patient is clear of cancer, they are not left with higher risks of other health problems such as cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome (a cluster of conditions that boost your risk of heart disease, stroke and type 2 diabetes).
Working as a team
These are three of the most powerful tools in the supportive care toolbox for people with cancer. None of them are “cures” for cancer, alone or together. But they can work in tandem with medical treatments to greatly improve outcomes for patients.
If you or someone you care about has cancer, national and state cancer councils and cancer-specific organisations can provide support.
As artificial intelligence (AI) is now being rolled out across multiple platforms and usages, the warning from key people in the industry should take on a stronger emphasis. In May 2023, hundreds of industry leaders from Open AI, GoogleDeepMind, Anthropic and other key technology companies issued a stark warning on the risks of AI and the need for a pause in AI deployment, new laws and Government regulatory oversight.
AI applications at present already cover a range of industries and functions including:
smart assistants
automated self driving vehicles
virtual travel assistants
marketing chatbots
manufacturing robots
healthcare management
automated financial investing
The rollout has continued apace despite the warning from 2023.
The potential threat of artificial intelligence, machine learning and self awareness in previous years has largely been portrayed in the realm of science fiction books and notably in films such as The Terminator (1984) by James Cameron and the various versions that followed in that film franchise. In the 1970s, another film that addressed the issue was Colossus: The Forbin Project which concluded with dire consequences for most of the human race. Another sci fi film, Demon Seed (1977) actually includes the use of fake imagery using AI to fool human beings and the eventual transcending of computer intelligence into human form. The use of robots that eventually transform into self aware life is covered in a variety of forms from the foundational story of the television series Battlestar Galactica through to feature film, Bladerunner (1982)by Ridley Scott which was based on Philip K Dick's novel When Androids Dream of Sheep. A theme throughout is the underestimation by human beings of the impact and potential risk in relation to what they have created.
AI is a powerful tool but it is one where the human control element can be reduced to almost tokenistic. The risks are very real of -
misuse of AI by criminal groups (which already occurs in part)
using AI as a weapon by state actors for the furtherance of strategic or tactical gain
machine learning growing exponentially such that the programmers and code writers no longer are able to understand what is being produced
machine to machine learning whereby the links between software produces inherent errors or unforseen negative effects
high speed decision making by AI which are difficult for humans to prevent or rectify.
The images below are AI generated by the publisher of this blog and serve as simple examples of the most basic form of AI:
Shutterstock - AI generated
The first example, is a Major-General in the British Army circa early 20th century being a historical photograph. The second example is printed below and serves as a complete contrast, being a young woman in evening dress with a shawl. There are technical errors contained in these images however much more sophisticated versions are possible from more complex AI systems. It is easy to see how deep image fakes of known public figures can be produced with minimal effort.
