The year that was 2021 and the year that is coming 2022

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2021 is a year that most people would prefer to simply disappear. To describe the last twelve months as 'challenging' is a misnomer and under-estimation of the level of difficulty with which Australia and the world has had to contend. A listing of some of the key events of 2021 provides a brief insight -

• COVID-19: just as the vaccines (from pharma companies, Astra-Zeneca, Pfizer and Moderna) rolled out in large quantities, the virus mutated not at all surprisingly.  New variants most notably Delta and the almost sci-fi name of  'Omicron' became the new dominant mutations raising the concern that the virus may be able to break-through the vaccines. As global management consultancy, McKinsey & Co commented "COVID-19 continues to pose risks, and managing it as endemic will require a momentous societal shift. Perhaps the hardest part will be coming to terms with the idea that this is no temporary phenomenon; we all must make permanent behavioural changes after the crisis". COVID-19 is here to stay and the pandemic remains an ongoing crisis into 2022. 
• AUKUS: The announcement of a new strategic alliance titled AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom and The United States) took many countries by surprise not the least, France, that had a contract to build new diesel submarines for Australia. The new alliance included providing Australia with the capability to build nuclear submarines thus rendering the contract with France null and void. The diplomatic fallout was predictable and public.
• World economy and supply chains: the fact that the world economy did not shrink further is a surprise. The fact that global supply chains have been severely disrupted is not. With the supply of goods and services now segmented, out-sourced and distributed globally, delays and  shutdowns in several countries affected the rest of the world. A single container ship, Ever Given, stuck in the Suez Canal caused losses estimated at USD $9.6 billion per day. The experience of COVID-19 has led to calls in many countries for better self sufficiency in the future, yet the impact of this situation will continue for the next few years.
• Taliban return to power in Afghanistan: the 20 year war in Afghanistan ended with the Taliban once again in power. The Western nations appeared shocked and surprised however closer examination has shown the inevitability of the Government in Kabul falling from power. Non existent relationships with local provincial communities, massive corruption and an army that was not paid for months all led to the demise. The lessons of previous civil wars clearly had not been heeded. 
• New US President: Joe Biden was elected president of the United States defeating Donald Trump leading to hopes that the US would again play a role in international relations that Trump had largely abandoned. Biden certainly reopened dialogue which his predecessor had closed off. 
• COP26 Climate Change - Glasgow: COP26 ended without the major agreement that many people and nations had hoped. Against the backdrop of the latest IPCC report, many important decisions were reached such as for methane emissions and there was understanding that CO2 emissions must be reduced well before 2050. The US and China joint statement made it clear that reductions are needed this decade by 2030 if global warming is to be averted. Yet concrete tangible agreement across the world which leads to meaningful target reductions remained elusive.
• Australia's vaccine rollout: despite having tackled the COVID-19 virus effectively in the first year, Australia's vaccine program faltered and ran too slowly in the second pandemic year allowing the virus to reach a foothold again through the Delta variant. By the end of 2021 Australia had caught up with the rest of the world and had administered over 42 million vaccine doses with many States now reaching over 90% of the eligible adult population (over 16 years of age).

2021 has been a difficult year - may 2022 provide some relief and hope.

Christmas 2021

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Christmas 2021: the world still grapples with COVID-19 and its variants, Delta and Omicron. Despite this global situation, the holiday season is upon us whether Summer in the Southern Hemisphere or Winter in the Northern Hemisphere. An opportunity for a pause from the endless, exhausting effect that the pandemic has created.

Christmas in the Christian calendar has many symbols and representations, some of which originate from pagan festivals, others that are distinctly religious while some are simply practices which have evolved over time.

The Christmas tree is one such symbol. Much of what has been conveyed is only myth such as the role of pine trees to Martin Luther who is reported to have believed the trees represented the goodness of God. Or Saint Boniface cutting down a fir tree to prevent a human sacrifice and then converting all the persons present to Christianity. When a new fir tree grew in its place Saint Boniface reputedly hung it upside down to represent the Holy Trinity. None of this is actually historically recorded or reliably reported.

What is known is the Christmas tree was adopted in Germany notably during the 15th Century and well entrenched by the 17th Century. A guild in Freiburg, Germany decorated a tree with apples, flour-paste wafers, tinsel and gingerbread. The demand for trees in the province of Alsace (now part of France) was so great that ordinances were passed restricting each household to one tree. Strasbourg passed laws preventing people from cutting off pine branches.  Unadorned Christmas trees were a common item for sale during Winter and were called 'Weihnachtsbaum'' (or Christmas tree).

In 1848 Queen Victoria and Prince Albert introduced Christmas trees to their family and the palace thereafter the trend became established in Victorian England, before spreading further afield. The practice was then taken up in the United States although not immediately with some resistance from communities that preferred a more pious and religious commemoration of the birth of Jesus. 

The Christmas tree nonetheless has become a ubiquitous part of the Christmas custom.

Merry Christmas !

Ethics Index 2021: Australians faith in ethical conduct declines

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This week the latest Governance Institute/IPSOS Ethic Index 2021 was released and shows a decline in the confidence of adult Australians in ethical behaviour in various industries, professions and institutions. Although a clear fall from the previous year, the rating of ethical conduct remains higher than 2019. So what are the specific findings ?

In summary -

• Overall Australians do consider Australian society to be 'somewhat ethical' with Millenials and Generation X rating with slightly higher scores than Baby Boomers.
• Respondents to the survey were asked to rate the importance of ethics and then compare the importance to the actual perceptions of ethical behaviour.
• Health continues to rate as having high ethical behaviour with a net score of 72% similar to last year which has 73.
• Charity and and Not-for-profit sector were rated as very ethical with an ethics score of 66 from 2020.
• Public Sector as perceived as being 'somewhat ethical' with an Index score of 46 but within public sector services there were wide variations with  fire services rating 85 and ambulance services scoring 79%. In contrast Judges, state,local and federal public servants and politicians were all seen to be less ethical in 2021 than 2020. 
• Federal Parliament rated a very dismal ethical score of -11 and is seen as the least ethical organisation.
• Media sector had a significant fall in ethics rating falling from 22 to 2%.
• Top ethical issues are consistent with previous years. 'Corruption' is in the top position as with previous years followed by 'misleading and deceptive advertising' then 'çompany tax avoidance'.
• While corporate ethical conduct was fairly neutral, high levels of CEO pay was considered unethical.
• Climate change features strongly with the clear majority of Australians (87%) feel there is a moral obligations to take action on climate change, even if it reduces profits, results in job losses or lower jobs in the future (88%).
• Australians feel that the Federal Government has an urgent ethical obligation to take action on climate change (71%) and this has increased from 2020.

The full findings can be located at this link: Governance Institute Ethics Index 2021

Sydney Film Festival 2021 - Film Review - Blue Bayou

Justin Chon - Blue Bayou

A child adopted by a American couple and seemingly a citizen of the country of adoption, the United States, discovers on reaching adulthood that is not the case and deportation back to the country of origin is possible. This extraordinary situation is the subject of Director and screenwriter, Justin Chon's film 'Blue Bayou'. 

Antonio LeBlanc (Chon) adopted as a 3 year old from Korea has spent his entire life in the Louisana bayou country, speaks with the Southern accent and to all intents and purposes is American. He is married to Kathy (Alicia Vikander) and is step-father to her daughter with another child on the way with his wife. The legal system is however unsympathetic and his adopted parents never completed the correct paperwork to confirm his status as a citizen. Antonio hires a lawyer but is unable to effectively mount a legal defence and surrenders to US Immigration, Customs and Enforcement (ICE) for deportation back to Korea, a country with which he has no ties.

Incredibly around 35,000 adoptees could be subject to this legal situation in the US. Adopted in the 1980s and 1990 as small children, on reaching 18 years of age they can be deported if their adopted parents have not applied for US citizenship for them. The end credits of this film show the photographs and identities of people already deported.

The film conveys a strong social message and one which highlights the powerlessness of the individual against a system with rigid application.

Sydney Film Festival 2021 - Film Review - Parallel Mothers

Milena Smit and Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers

 
Acclaimed director, Pedro Almodovar wrote and directed this film which has an odd juxtaposition of a historical backstory and muddled collection of current inter-relationships. Janis (Penelope Cruz) a high end photographer becomes pregnant to her lover, a married war crimes archaeologist with whom she has arranged the excavation of a mass grave from the era of the Spanish Civil War. The mass grave is located in her grandmother's village. 

In the maternity wing of the hospital Janis then meets Ana (Milena Smit) a young woman also having a baby and the two women form a friendship. As fate would have it, the hospital has mistakenly switched babies with the two women unknowingly taking each other's infant home. Janis discovers the mistake but keeps it from Ana while the two become momentarily involved in a lesbian relationship. The archaeologist is still on the scene and comes to visit from time to time but Janis keeps her distance. Ana confides in Janis that her baby has died from Sudden Infant Syndrome until the sense of guilt overwhelms Janis and she admits that her baby daughter is, in fact, Ana's child.

Confusing storyline ? It is.  The underlying theme concludes with the excavation of the mass grave containing the remains of prisoners killed during the Spanish Civil War. A dramatic scene of villagers walking along the road carrying large photos of the dead forms part of the final imagery with Janis and Ana and everyone else seemingly reconciled with each other. A happy ending perhaps.

It's a quintessential Almodovar film but Cruz' talent is somewhat wasted on this script with the convoluted relationships. Principal photography provides an attractive image of Madrid and Spain itself but there is a sense of the audience being lectured in the screen writing.

 

COP26 - The United States and China Joint Declaration on Climate Change

As the final hours of negotiation for the COP26 final statement tick down, one of the surprising announcemenst of the past week was the Joint Declaration of the two major emitters and powers, the United States and China on the need for action. Through a 16 paragraph statement, both countries have committed to not only work jointly with each other but to commit to concrete action. The timelines for action oultined including much earlier reduction targets in the 2020s decade, well before 2035 or near the end point of 2050 for near total elimination of carbon emissions.

Amongst the key statements contained in the Declaration is a clear unambiguous recognition of the situation and the need for urgent action -

"The United States and China, alarmed by reports including the Working Group 1 Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report released on August 9th, 2021, further recognise the seriousness and urgency of the climate crisis. They are committed to tackling it through their respective accelerated actions in the critical decade of the 2020s, as well as through cooperation in multilateral processes, including the UNFCCC process, to avoid catastrophic impacts"

"The United States and China recall their firm commitment to work together and with other Parties to strengthen implementation of the Paris Agreement. The two sides also recall the Agreement's aim in accordance with Article 2 to hold global average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees C. In that regard, they are committed to pursuing such efforts, including by taking enhanced climate actions that raise ambition in the 2020s in the context of the Paris Agreement, with the aim of keeping the above temperature limit within reach and cooperating to identify and address related challenges and opportunities'"

The Joint Declaration can be accessed at this link:

US State Department: Joint Glasgow Declaration on enhancing climate action in the 2020s

COP26 Glasgow - draft conference decision released - strong on empathy, light on agreed action

The major political leaders have left COP26 and the nitty-gritty negotiations between officials has been progressing. But will there be enough action taken to prevent catastrophic temperature change with all that it entails ? 

The draft CMA statement ('CMA' being the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement) has been released. The current draft over 84 clauses covers topics such as the science for effective climate action, adaptation finance, mitigation, technology transfer and capacity-building for adaptation, loss and damage caused by climate change, implementation, and finally collaboration.

Much of the draft statement has the language of diplomacy, with terms such as 'recognises', 'welcomes', 'reaffirms', 'úrges'  Of note, the draft agreement -

• recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C by 2100 requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 relative to the 2010 level and to net zero around mid-century;

• decides to establish a work programme to urgently scale-up mitigation ambition and implementation during the critical decade of the 2020s;
• resolves to move swiftly with the full implementation and delivery of the Paris Agreement.

There are many placeholders in the draft decision demonstrating there are still multiple points to negotiate.

The draft decision can be found at this link: Overarching decision 1-CMA