2011 - A new year and a new direction ?

As a new year beckons, its often an appropriate time to reflect back on what has transpired over the past twelve months (and in some cases further back than just a year) and formulate resolutions for the next year. Some larger questions to come to mind: will the international financial system experience further 'aftershocks' from the Global Financial Crisis with the US economy still stunted and the European Union bailing out weaker member states ? Shall the war in Afghanistan reach any milestone or achievement progressing to a point where the planned US withdrawal  appears viable? Will there continue to be some intra-state progress with environmental controls and carbon emission reduction ?  And where will technology lead us in the next year with the convergence of communication, media and computing hardware and software. These larger macro questions all have an impact on the micro individual level and even disciples of game theory would find it difficult to accurately predict the year ahead.

Rising sea levels and Australia's coastal urban communities

With the prospect of rising sea levels across the World in the next ten to twenty years and 85% of Australians living on the coastal fringe of the Continent, the maps released by the Federal Department of Climate Change and OzCoasts makes interesting scrutiny. For most locations and the State capitals, rising sea levels have only a modest impact, but for reclaimed land and waterfront developments on artificially created landmass, the situation is very different with water inundation almost impossible to prevent.

http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/climate/sd_visual.jsp

Solar energy has the appeal in Australia

Encouraging news on the uptake of a key alternative renewable energy source:

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/aussies-do-their-bit-as-solar-panel-use-surges-20101221-193q3.html

Christmas 2010

Christmas each year through the celebration of the Christian calendar provides an opportunity to share the holiday spirit and reflect on the past year's events and the coming year's challenges. For many people, notwithstanding the joy of sharing over the festive season, the awareness of life's passing moments and the passage of time can be a confronting experience. It was interesting to read media reports that in 2010, the major charities are reporting that volunteers are at a record high to assist at this time, and  in fact that charities have had to turn potential volunteers away. Some in fact, filled their volunteer quotas in advance some months ago. The motivations of all people have a basis in sharing and generosity but mixed with this altruism is just a tinge of guilt about having some good fortune in life when many others do not. In this sense, a feeling of being useful is often a counterpoint to match this uncomfortable feeling in what can be, in general terms, a remarkably uncomforatable period of the year.

Cancun and COP16 - progress continues in small steps

From the news reports from COP16 Cancun there appears to be some further incremental developments for international cooperation on climate change. From the Wall Street Journal -

CANCUN, Mexico—The world's nations on Saturday agreed to a package of climate initiatives, including billions of dollars in funding for poor countries, although they failed to adopt a binding climate treaty amid a stalemate among the U.S., China, Japan and other nations.

The agreement calls on rich countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by amounts nations pledged a year ago, although the cuts aren't legally binding. Developing countries are to come up with plans to cut their emissions in a worldwide effort to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. The agreement includes plans for a green fund and $100 billion a year that wealthier countries would provide by 2020 to help poor countries finance programs to cut emissions and cope with drought and other effects of global warming.

A stalemate among the U.S., China, Japan, India and other countries has frozen talks on a global climate treaty and thrown into question the future of the existing Kyoto Protocol climate treaty. But diplomats said they hoped the Cancun plan could pave the way for a legally binding climate treaty when governments reconvene at next year's U.N. climate summit in Durban, South Africa.

Japan has said that it wouldn't commit to a second phase of the Kyoto treaty unless the world's largest greenhouse-gas emitters, namely China, the U.S. and India, agreed to cut their emissions under a legally binding treaty. The first phase of the treaty ends in 2012.

The U.S., which signed but never ratified the Kyoto treaty, has long argued that it wouldn't agree to mandated emission cuts unless China and other fast-growing economies also agreed to limit emissions. But at climate negotiations a year ago in Copenhagen, both the U.S. and China made voluntary commitments to cut their greenhouse gas emissions.

China has maintained that as a developing country, it doesn't have the resources—or responsibility—to aggressively cut emissions while growing its economy.

India initially had a similar position, although the country softened it this week, saying it would consider agreeing to mandated cuts at some point in the future.

Movie review: Monsters

A synopsis of the plot: The story is set six years after NASA discovers the possibility of alien life within our solar system and as a result launches a probe to collect samples. The probe crashes upon re-entry over Central America and thereafter, new life form begins to appear resulting in half of Mexico and a small part of the US being quarantined as an 'Infected Zone'. The American and Mexican military struggle to contain these new life forms. A young US photo journalist agrees to escort his bosses daughter home through the infected zone in Mexico to the safety of the US border. Much of the film is focussed on this journey home.

What starts with a good novel idea and excellent scene setting, progresses very little with a very small number of action scenes and a preoccupation with the self interested perspective of the two main characters (the journalist and his companion, the bosses' daughter). Much of the film is spent as these two contemplate their lives when they return to the US and only occasionally is their attention drawn to the dangerous predicament in which they find themselves. In many respects the dialogue resembles 'Dumb and Dumber' meets 'Ferris Buellers Day Off'. The cgi special effects are deftly and sparingly used to good effect however the lack of action events in suspenseful moments undermines the dramatic impact of the film.

Wikileaking....

The role and impact of a site such as Wikileaks generates considerable controversy and various levels of animosity predominantly in Government circles. How useful are the thousands of documents being released for serving the public interest? In general terms while these may useful for an insight into US Government policy and international relations, the impact of Wikileaks is limited as other major world powers are not affected in the same manner. The United States is one of several key players with Russia, China and India being also critical to international relations and power plays. A number of smaller powers such as Israel and Pakistan also hold critical positions in world hot spots. In this sense Wikileaks is limited in its scope and arguably of limited value with only US material.

Searching for ET - a flawed perspective

Within some astronomy circles there is a view that searching for extraterrestrial life in the universe is a good and worthy goal, both from a scientific point of view and the resources needed to carry out such research. Hollywood films such as 'ET', 'Close Encounters of the Third Kind' and 'The Day the Earth Stood Still' paint a picture of higher intelligence being understanding and interaction with people on this planet being one of positivism or curiousity. But on what basis would an assumption along these lines bear any resemblance to reality? The recent release of a muddled mess of a film called 'Skyline' presents a different view of aliens. In this film they are portrayed as overtly hostile and their arrival on earth is aggressive with humans seen as resources to be harvested. In 'Skyline', the human race is not successful  at beating off the invaders and succumbs to the more powerful alien force. It should not presumed that any life form outside of this planet would subscribe to the same values, beliefs or behaviour often recognisable to homo sapiens. The Universe in fact is a highly hostile and volatile environment and should any intelligence be found which has the capacity to reach this planet, it is unlikely to have benign behaviour or adherence to ethical and moral values.

Nuclear Power and radioactive waste

The environmental community remains split on the virtues or otherwise of the use of nuclear power to replace reliance on coal fired generators. On the positive side, nuclear energy does not produce the level of carbon emissions and greenhouse gases although it does remain reliant on the mining and processing of uranium. On the negative side, it produces highly radioactive waste that remains potent for thousands of years. Around 14 % of the world's electricity is produced from nuclear power plants and around 12,000 tonnes of waste. One theoretical proposal being canvassed in experiments in Europe and Japan is to saturate plutonium, uranium with neutrons which cause the isotopes to become unstable, then decay into material less problematic for disposal. How realistic is this proposal given the number of existing nuclear power stations and those proposed for replacement or new construction? Can the quantity of waste be effectively managed with such a process which in itself carries risks. Any solution which is found to be viable remains decades away and in itself, it is unlikely that nuclear power will produce the trump card to enable a clear removal of fossil fuels for power generation.  

Silent Spring - has the lesson been learned?

It's now 48 years since Rachel Carson's 'Silent Spring' was published and marked a foundation point in defining the inherent risk of uncritical acceptance of  pesticides impact on the enivronment. Released by Houghton Mifflin on 27 September 1962,  the book itself is widely credited with helping launch the environmental movement and documented the detrimental effects of pesticides on the environment, particularly on birds. Carson who was a scientist, said that DDT had been found to cause thinner egg shells and result in reproductive problems and death. The chemical industry was criticised for spreading disinformation with public officials accepting industry claims uncritically.

Even with greater awareness, controls and regulation, high level risk continues. The Californian Condor, an endangered species, appears to be the next potential victim of contamination producing eggs with dangerously thin shells. A possible culprit is exposure to DDT through the food chain as condors feed off sea lions who in turn eat contaminated fish from an offshore dumping ground.
[New Scientist 20 November 2010]

Shades of Grey and Life's Momentum

Life has become compressed in the 21st Century and more focussed on the absolutes of black and white rather than shades of grey which actually characterises the bulk of life's events. Thus observed prominent and sometimes controverial Australian photographer and artist, Bill Henson, at the Art Gallery of NSW last night. Presenting the final talk of the photographic series 'My Favourite Things', Bill Henson observed the speed at which events, moments and decisions are reached, often with insufficient consideration and often less understanding.   

Henson's photographic work reflects an interest in ambiguity and in particular, transition. His photographs often resemble the texture and composition of a painting rather than a photograph. With this perspective he is well placed not only to observe change but to arbitrage between new technology and  retaining a passion for earlier, more measured forms of creative expression in music, film and other art forms. Music is one such linear transition he commented moving from vinyl to tape to CD and now to MP3 digital capture, yet condensing does not always guarantee retention of content or value. An obervation well placed.

Native cuisine - alternative diet

Over the past two decades there have been various experiments with changing Western culinary habits by introducing additional species to the human cuisine most often being native species as an alternative to the domestic cattle, sheep and farmed birds. In Australia this has included kangaroos, emus and water buffalo. This has met with only mixed success but of these species, kangaroos have offered the most likely option for adoption into diets. A strong incentive for the uptake of kangaroo can be seen with the following data.

Tonnes per head per year (carbon equivalents)

• 0.003 - Kangaroo
• 0.14 - Sheep
• 1.67 - Cattle

Fat Content per 100kg of raw meat

• 6.3g - Beef (lean fillet)
• 5.8g - Lamb (trimmed steak)
• 1.5g - Chicken
• 1.3g - Kangaroo

[Source: New Scientist No 2781 9 October 2010]

Global warming - facing an unpopular truth

The second Festival of Dangerous Ideas was held at the Sydney Opera House over the October 2010 long weekend featuring an array of topics in 24 separate panel debates and individual presentations. From a climate change perspective, the message remained clear with a projected grim outlook for the planet from 2020 onwards. Of note, the session titled 'We are all Climate Change Deniers' presented by Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethcis at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics demonstrated the stark reality that global warming is occuring and is on a trajectory for a major impact within this century. Even the 2 degree C target would still result in Artic summer ice, Himalayan Tibetan glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet melting. The evidence now shows a temperature rise of between 2 and 4 degrees C which will result in the loss of Amazon rainforest (one of the World's main oxygen generators) and the West Antartic ice sheet as well as many other effects. Yet despite the evidence, there remains vocal and powerful interests that seek to deny there is any risk as well as nullify any debate.

Life beyond in the stars?

The recent pronuncement that Gliese 581g, a planet orbiting the red dwarf star Gliese 581 may be suitable for life should not come as any surprise. Located approximately 20.5 light years away from Earth in the constellation of Libra, the planet is located in the middle of the "Goldilocks" zone, or what is defined as a habitable part of space near its parent star. The existence of liquid water is considered a strong possibility and this condition is generally considered a precursor for life. The planet was discovered by the Lick-Carnegie Exoplanet Survey following a period of over ten years of observations. Gliese 581g is believed to be the first Goldilocks planet ever found being the most earth-like planet with the potential for harboring life. The search for life in the universe continues both through optical astronomy and radio astronomy (the SETI program). The question remains, if life is found, what would the human race do?

Ozone layer recovering following CFC reduction

Some positive news for the environment comes with confirmation from the UN Environment Program (UNEP) that the ozone level in the Earth's upper atmosphere is recovering following the removal of harmful ozone depleting substances from use in human activities.

As UNEP advises "..The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer was adopted in 1987 to protect global ozone and, consequently, protect life from increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation at Earth’s surface. Chlorine- and bromine-containing substances that are controlled by the Montreal Protocol are known as ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed in polar regions (for example, the “ozone hole” above Antarctica) and in middle latitudes. The severe depletion of stratospheric ozone observed in the Antarctic has increased UV at the surface and affected climate at southern high latitudes..'.

This is a long overdue bit of good news and demonstrates the World's capacity for taking the necessary steps when a clear course of action was needed.

Loss of carbon absorption another impact of drought

The latest issue of Science carries some concerning research showing a reduction in the level of trees/plants to provide carbon sinks for the planet. Drought and changed rainfall patterns have apparently led to this reduction of plant coverage but this in turn places an urgent emphasis on taking steps to replace plant loss as well as develop other alternative methods to capture carbon emissions.

Science 20 August 2010:

Vol. 329. no. 5994, pp. 940 - 943
DOI: 10.1126/science.1192666

Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009
Maosheng Zhao* and Steven W. Running

Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.

Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, the University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA.

Mission Ultra Complex: The War in Afghanistan

Australia's involvement in Afghanistan is crystalised in Chris Master's carefully constructed two part documentary 'A Careful War' for the 4 Corners program of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Speaking at the Lowy Institute for International Policy on 30 July 2010, Masters commented that no single media account of this conflict is accurate - the reality of the situation in Afghanistan is rather that there are hundreds of many individual different conflicts being fought throughout cities, towns and villages of that country. Masters also highlighted a weakness of understanding by the Australian public of the 'battle space' being occupied by Australian soldiers serving in that theatre of operations. More than any previous military commitment, Australian soldiers are required to be part fighter, diplomat, anthropologist and social worker - a complex set of skills to utilise simultaneously while still within a combat environment. The ability to continue such an intense and difficult military commitment for several more years and outlast the Taliban will test the resolve of the western powers as well as the Afghan National Army to fill the void once troop withdrawals occur.

Geoengineering to avoid climate change - science fiction or fantasy?

With ongoing debate on the ramifications of climate change on the planet or, in some quarters, continuing doubt as to the validity of the science itself, one aspect which has escaped wider consideration are some of the proposed solutions. While many focus on alternative energy production methods or ways to avoid carbon emissions, a few actually propose further intervention in the earth's climate. One of these is geoengineering or in simple terms using engineering solutions to affect climate change. In science fiction, this is often referred to as terra forming but whether it is science or science fiction, such a direction is fraught with high level risk particularly considering the basis for such proposals are untested and often commercial or 'market-based' approaches seeking a quick fix. The most unusual is injecting sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere to counteract carbon emissions. How sensible is such a proposal? Would this approach only add one more problem to the already existing ones?

Where film becomes too grim....

The art house or alternative film industry has often presented confronting and provocative images of contemporary society and/or political or moral dilemmas. The 2010 Sydney Film Festival which showcases a selection of such films appears increasingly stark as the mid point of the festival is crossed. Winter's Bone is set in the hillbilly badlands of Missouri and provides a grim perspective on a family in an inwards-looking struggling rural community. The Killer Inside Me appearing more like a poor man's version of American Psycho, follows the story of a sociopath murdering deputy sheriff and his brutal way of dealing with women as pawns in a larger plot (although in many ways its not clear what that may be). Women Without Men a more sublime, allegorical Iranian film deals with repression particularly within contemporary Iran especially as it affects women. So many of these films take a dark look at life that at times it seems the genre itself has difficulty in uplifting itself from a sense of depression.

On the screen.... big pictures but few new stories...

The 57th Sydney Film Festival is at its mid point this week and once again offers a mix of films from across the globe drawing also from the other major film festivals of Sundance, Venice, Cannes, Berlin etc. The festival in recent years has been significantly trimmed in duration and numbers of films screened. Perhaps one early observation that can be made is the lack of original screenplays and an almost endless easy-to-see collection of cliches. A few stand-outs are Kawasaki's Rose, a Czech film dealing with the controversial issue of collaborators and totalitarian regimes and Ajami which features inter-related stories in the occupied territories in Palestine. Sadly Australian films such as The Tree and Red Hill lack original imagery and thought, preferring to rely on cliche driven plot lines (although not lacking enthusiasm).

Biennale Bust

The arts calendar has once more swung around with the 17th Biennale of Sydney running from 12 May to the 1st of August 2010. Like many contemporary art festivals increasingly it's the main platform for new media using film, photographic images, computer graphics and modern sculpture to constitute the bulk of mainly large installation works. For the 17th Biennale, 'spectacle' is often a better description than 'art' for the what the general public discover at the various sites. Spread across Cockatoo Island, MCA, the Art Gallery of NSW, Pier 2/3 and Artspace the Biennale offers a variety of spaces as well as works to view. Some visually impacting works by Russian consortium AES+F, Cai Guo-Qiang, Dale Frank, Shen Shaomin contrast with some truly odd films by Amal Kenawy and Katarzyna Kozyra to name a few.
 What can one say about it all ? Its free so that's a blessing in itself.

The Easter Bunny hops again in 2010

Easter once again has come around for those with pious religious conviction who celebarate the resurrection of Jesus Christ. The New Testament teaches that the resurrection of Jesus, is a foundation of the Christian faith. For most others, Easter represents chocolate Easter eggs and a multitude of chocolate bunnies.

And where did Eggs come from? Apparently as a symbol of the rebirth of the earth in celebrations of spring, the eggs were adopted by early Christians as a symbol of the resurrection of Jesus. According to academic literature, the oldest tradition is to use dyed or painted chicken eggs (which is still the case with many Orthodox Christian Churches), but a modern custom is to substitute chocolate eggs, or plastic eggs filled with confectionery such as jelly beans. For children, these eggs are often hidden, allegedly by the Easter Bunny, to be found on Easter morning (which is Easter Sunday).

The Easter Bunny is actually not originally an Easter symbol but has origins in Alsace and the Upper Rhineland, both then in the Holy Roman Empire, and southwestern Germany, where the practice was first recorded in a German publication in the early 1600s. The first edible Easter Eggs were made in Germany during the early 1800s and were made of pastry and sugar. So there is nothing particularly religious about the Easter bunny which in most respects has taken on a wholly commercial identity in the modern world.

Carbon Emissions - one problem among many

The debate on climate change often focuses on the level of Carbon Emissions (CO2) and global warming but the overall complexity of the earth's environment means there are several other possible serious factors to consider. Some of  these are listed below - 

Acid Oceans: the amount of carbonic acid in the oceans and the loss of aragonite,

Ozone Depletion: this was the environmental issue of the 1970s and remains a current concern as trapping warmer air closer to the surface of the planet means a colder stratosphere and hence ozone comes under threat again from those chemicals still is use which deplete it.

Fresh Water: Water is becoming so scarce in many parts of the planet, despite unseasonal periodic flooding that underground aquifers are being pumped out and cannot be replenished,

Biodiversity: continued mass extinction of species has considerable impact on ecosystems and on human habitation - the current rate of change has far exceeded levels of adapatability,

Nitrogen and Phospherus cycles: agriculture and fertilisers, burning fossil fuels/timber/crops and human sewage have contributed nitrogen in such quantities that dead zones and algae blooms are now more frequent in the oceans,

Aerosol Loading: dust, sulphates and other particles created by human activity continue to affect air quality and hence have a negative impact on agricultural crops and human health,

Chemical pollution: There are almost 100,000 different human made chemicals now in use on the planet among these are toxic heavy metals (such as lead) and persistent organic pollutants (such as DDT, PCBs and dioxins).  These have strong detrimental effects on humans.

Many of these factors are causally linked to each other and only a comprehensive strategy on climate change togther with a wider linkage to other aspects of pollution has any hope of succeeding.

Up in the Air - George Clooney hits home again

George Clooney's latest film directed/written by Jason Reitman (and based on the novel by Walter Kirn) is another clever subtle and ultimately ironically funny observation on the usually sad spectre of corporate restructures. Clooney's character is corporate downsizing expert Ryan Bingham, whose specialty is to help ease the transition of long-term employees to unemployment. Clooney's character takes his job very seriously and loves the 290 days spent travelling away from home. His only problem is the 70 days at home in his rented empty apartment. His professional world is up-ended when a young Ivy League graduate comes to  the company and threatens to ground the downsizing consultants by the innovative and cost cutting idea of firing people via the internet.

Ryan Bingham is not standing for a change in life, nor the chance of missing the goal of reaching total airline miles to gain lifetime status recognition ("Let's just say I have a number and I haven't hit it yet"). His mission becomes one of proving how personal his job really is and how important a face to face meeting can be to talk down an emotionally unstable person facing unemployment.

In this travelling story both Ryan and the recent college graduate, Natalie, played by Anna Kendrick, both reach realisation as to what has been lacking in their lives, how to become better people and open themselves to love, heartbreak, and the need to mature. The film touches on the many elements of modern corporate life and relationships in this electronic interconnected world.

Earth Hour 2010

Its time once more to give a commitment to dealing, in a personal sense, with carbon emissions and energy usage.

Turning Wall Street ?

US President Barack Obama has unveiled a sweeping series of measures aimed at checking the behaviour of banks and creating pressures against high risk financial transactions and deals. The proposals which are touted as the biggest regulatory crackdown on banks since the 1930s, include limitations on the size of institutions and barring the most cavalier trading practices.

According to media reports, Obama stated “We should no longer allow banks to stray too far from their central mission of serving their customers,” “My resolve to reform the system is only strengthened when I see record profits at some of the very firms claiming that they cannot lend more to small business, cannot keep credit card rates low and cannot refund taxpayers for the bailout. If these folks want a fight, it’s a fight I’m ready to have. Never again will the American taxpayer be held hostage by a bank that is too big to fail.”

Obama stated that Wall Street banks must: halt “proprietary trading”, where banks risk huge sums predicting the outcome of future moves in the price of commodities such as oil; operate more cautiously and have more available funds; not become too large by limiting the amount of ordinary banking business they can undertake.

Wall Street has certainly demonstrated the degree of risk for the global community when an unfettered market is allowed to trade with unfettered greed, however Obama faces considerable barriers to effecting change needed in the World's largest capital markets. Risky deals and large executive remuneration has been the practice for many years and turning around such a culture, which also influences the rest of the international finance community, is a mammoth almost impossible task.

A War without End - the Taliban and Afghanistan

The war in Afghanistan shows little sign of resolution and the strike by the Taliban through a bombing against a CIA operation highlights the capacity of the group to strike back at will. The loss of seven CIA agents who were killed in the attack in Khost province has brought into the focus the clandestine and difficult war being fought by America’s intelligence agencies against the Taliban and al-Qaeda  in the wild border regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Operating bases such as Forward Operating Base Chapman, are the main edge of American military and intelligence counter-terrorism operations in the tribal belt and have the objective of hunting down senior figures in al-Qaeda and their allies, the Taliban, and eliminating them. While the CIA’s main strike weapons are the remote drones which fly high over the border areas 24 hours a day, watching and listening to telephone networks, human intelligence is far harder to acquire yet absolutely essential for effective strikes. But gaining such vital and prized information among remote communities  is diffcult and dangerous given these commmunities are suspicious of any outsider and particualrly foreigners. The potential for inflitration and counter-strikes is very high which was demonstrated all too effectively this week.