Climate change - the challenge of not exceeding a 1.5 degree Celsius increase

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Global management consulting firm, McKinsey & Co, has provided a simple summary of the impact of a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in temperature and the solutions to prevent crossing this critical threshold. These can be listed as -

Impacts

• weather events become more extreme and frequent. These include wildfires, hurricanes, severe storms, drought, flooding and very high temperatures.
• climate feedbacks occur such that climate change triggers changes on the planet which lead to further changes in the climate and an ongoing cycle occurs becoming self-reinforcing. The higher the temperature, the greater the effect.
• climate feedback include higher temperatures contributing to the loss of forests which in turn lead to the loss of carbon capture, increased carbon release and correspnding higher climate change levels.
• loss of ice cover warms the Earth with less reflective cover from the sun and hence contributes to further temperature increase.
• the current situation where climate change can already been felt is the result of an increase of 1.1 degrees Celsius.

Solutions

• 75% of emissions of CO2 relate to energy production and use so this is a primary focus.
• power companies have been moving away from traditional coal and gas burning and moving to renewables such as solar and wind power. Clean hydrogen or green hydrogen is the new growth opportunity.
• Carbon capture and storage is essential to get CO2 out of the atmosphere. This is best achieved through reforestation since plants absorb carbon. However each year an area the size of Greece is being deforested. McKinsey & Co believe that by 2030, reforestation would need to be the size of Turkey.
• food production is a major source of the greenhouse gas, methane. Cows are the major source of methane although rice production also contributes to this gas. All the cows on the planet currently generate emissions "roughtly on a par with the United States". This can be addressed though various measure such as less beef consumption, changes to certain breeding and genetic selection, methane inhibitors, feed-mix additive changes.
• road transport accounts for around 15 per cent of CO2 with electrification of vehicles seen as a viable solution using green generation source and battery storage being the pathway aways from emissions.
• heating (such as space and water heating associated with buildings) accounts for 5 to 8 per cent of global emissions. The solution is adaption to using green energy sources for power.
• increased efficiency in production and process optimisation in heavy indsutry is a critical related step. Recycling of steel has been identified as a key influence on reducing emissions.

While various initiatives have been taken to commence applying many of these solutions, including most notably in the private sector, concerted support from National Governments is still needed worldwide in order to effect the transition in multiple industries. To do less will lead to unthinkable failure.