State of the Climate Report 2024 - Continuing grim evidence

                                                                     BOM/CSIRO 2024

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and scientific research organisation, CSIRO, have released their 8th biennial State of the Climate Report. The findings, based on analysis and collation of a range of local and international data sources continues to provide a stark picture of the advance of climate change and its impact on this country.  In releasing the results in this report, the agencies advised that there is only around 7 years left to mitigate and manage greenhouse gas emissions otherwise temperature increases above 1.5C will occur. This warning like so many others, will need to feed into the  United Nations COP 29 conference later this month.  What is abundantly clear from all the reports on climate change across the world is that the timeline for substantial change cannot be 2050. Twenty five years away is too late and the revised target of 2030 is more aligned with the actual climate change data.

A summary of the report findings is listed -

• Australia's climate has warmed by and average of 1.51 +/- 0.23 C since national records commenced in 1900
• Sea surface temperature has increased by an average of 1.08 C since 1900
• The warming has led to an increase in the freqauency of extreme heat events over land and in the oceans
• In the south-west of Australia there has been a decrease of around 16% in April to October rainfall since 1970. Across the same region May to July rainfall has seen the largest reduction by around 20% since 1970
• In the south-east of Australia, there has been a decrease of around 9% in April to October rainfall since 1994
• Heavy short-term rainfall events are becoming more intense
• There has been an increase in extreme fire weather and a longer fire season across large parts of the country since the 1950s
• Snow depth, snow cover and number of snow days have decreased in alpine regions cince the late 1950s
• Oceans around Australia are becoming more acidic with change happening faster in recent decades
• Sea levels are rising around Australia including more frequent extreme high levels that increase the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.

The Report can be accessed at this link: State of-the-Climate 2024

US Presidential election - end of campaign to 5 November 2024 - updated on 5 November 2024

                                                                                   Shutterstock

The US election period is drawing to a close and polling day is almost here on November 5. As of today, 68.3 million people have already voted either in postal votes or in-person at early voting centres. 

In Australia, most media-based commentators and political science analysts are increasingly of the view that a Trump victory is more likely, even by a small margin. This is entirely guesswork and despite a multitude of polls and interviews with voters, no clear picture can be established. A Trump victory would not be due to the merits of the Trump campaign itself and only partially (in a very small measure) the candidate himself. It has a lot to do with a range of factors as below:

The electoral college system: Within the US, the actual electoral college system favours the Republican Party with smaller states have a disproportionate weighting of value of votes. Some of these states have voted Republican far more than Democrat with occasional cross-over change for candidates such as Barack Obama, Bill Clinton or Joe Biden. A candidate can decisively win the overall vote in the US but lose by not gaining enough votes in smaller states and thus losing all the electoral college votes for that state.

Legacy policy impacts: immigration is a white-hot issue in the United States and one that was not resolved during the Biden period. Biden's action in rolling back Trump policies led to a large number of migrants crossing the US border illegally and still more gathering on the border with Mexico. Biden and the Democrats sought to remedy this situation through a bi-partisan border and national security bill in May 2024. The draft legislation had been agreed by both the Republican and Democrat parties but Trump intervened and directed the Republicans not to support the bill. As a result the issue was not resolved and the problem continued giving Trump additional political leverage.

In-built prejudices: Vice President Harris is both a woman and of migrant descent. There are well established prejudices in the US about her gender and race. Whether sufficient numbers of US voters can be galvanised to enable her to win the ballot thus overcoming this situation is yet to be determined. Within a number of the key eight swing states, gender and race influence voter perceptions and could prove a major stumbling block for Harris. Male Afro-American voters for example, have indicated support for Trump due to perceptions that he is a strong man. Trump's campaign team have run a hyper-masculine campaign underpinning this perception. In addition, Trump's campaign has focussed on the mantra of ''outrage" blaming other communities for problems, reminiscent of 1930s Germany and rallies held in that country at that time.

Economics of the US: a key impression amongst voters is that the US economy is going backwards and interest rates are still increasing. This is not true and the US central bank, the Fed, has been reducing interest rates as the US economy is quite strong with a stable jobs market. In October 2024, 12,000 new jobs were created. However for the average US voter, day-to-day life still seems unaffordable and increasingly costly. Trump has promoted a view of economic malaise and the loss of jobs due to other countries/globalisation in the US despite the converse being true and this campaign tactic has been successful to a large degree with his core voter support.

November 5, 2024 beckons.....

UPDATED on 5 November 2024

Voting has been been occuring on polling day in the US. Over 80 million voters have now voted in the pre-poll (postal and in person at voting centres). The election contest continues to be impossible to call between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald J Tump. There have been some surprising late poll data that came to light in Iowa which showed support for Harris increasing in an otherwise Republican State however whether this is replicated in the ballot box is yet to be determined.