Christmas 2022

                                                                        Shutterstock

Christmas - a time for joy, sharing and for many, a time of expressing faith. It can also be a difficult point in the year for those experiencing hardship, isolation and/or the loss of someone close.

 

The festive season is represented by many images some of which find their origins in other festivals grounded in pagan periods of history. The Christmas tree is one of these images and practices. Although its generally agreed that the current form comes from 16th Century Germany and there is a relationship between Christmas trees and the 'tree of paradise' in medieval plays, the origin is more nuanced than these commemorations. The use of evergreen wreaths in symbolism can also be found in the Roman period in the mid-Winter festival of Saturnalia. Various other non-Christian cultures in Northern Europe also worshipped trees also using evergreens to dispel evil presences during Winter. In reality the Christmas tree is something of a synthesis over time between various beliefs.

As 2022 comes to an end, compliments of the season wherever you reside.

State of the Climate Report 2022 - temperature graphs

(c) BOM/CSIRO

(c) BOM/CSIRO

Climate change - the escalating risk of methane from the melting Arctic permafrost

Permafrost melt lake - Above Arctic Circle, Canada - Shutterstock

While much of the focus on limiting greenhouse gas emissions is rightly focussed on carbon dioxide, increasing attention is being paid to another an equally concerning threat - the increasing levels of methane gas being emitted from the melting permafrost found in the Arctic areas of the planet.

The need for monitoring of this evolving and increasing source of greenhouse gases and its potential impact could not be more stark not the least for the risk of a feedback loop. A feedback loop would occur where the planet commences a phase of unstoppable warming as greenhouse gases continue to increase global warming which in turn increased more greenhouse gas emissions which again increases global warming. This is a nightmare scenario.

The Arctic Circle and its permafrost is one such risk. The permafrost is melting and releasing increasing levels of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas.

In summary -

• Methane is a greenhouse gas with a potency around 20 times the warming power of carbon dioxide.
• Large quantities of methane is locked into the permafrost of the Arctic Circle. Permafrost measures around 23 million square kilometres of land surface comprising 85% of Alaska and near 50% of Canada and Russia.
• Permafrost originates from the Ice Ages when glaciers and ice sheets covered large tracks of the planet's surface. Over tens of thousands of years, rocks were ground into a form of substance called 'glacial flour'  by the ice with plants and animals becoming part of the mix in the permafrost layers. When the glaciers and ice sheets retreated, this semi frozen layer was left behind. Measurements of permafrost have found detected deposits up to 1,500 metres thick aand overall it is estimated that 1.7 trillion tonnes of carbon are trapped in them.
• Permafrost supports vast tracts of forests more than twice the size of the Amazon rainforest. These evergreen forests are effectively a carbon sink capturing more carbon from the atmosphere than is released by ther melting permafrost. This is now changing and some regions of forest are now releasing more carbon than they are absorbing.
• The actual source of greenhouse gases in the permafrost are frozen microbes that are entombed. As the permafrost melts the microbes begin to consume plant and animal remnants around them releasing greenhouse gases. Where the microbes are located in mainly dry territory with access to oxygen, they emit mainly carbon dioxide. However where they are in water with no oxygen, they emit methane. 

The evidence of increasing emissions is already available. In the Yenisey-Khatanga Basin in Siberia, temperatures in 2020 were 11 degrees Fahrenheit about average and limestone rock formations commenced releasing ancient methane deposits. 

The IPCC reports and models do not include permafrost methane emissions due to the uncertainty and difficulty of measuring this source of greenhouse gas. Yet this critical risk may yet upend most climate change projections.

Information for this post has been drawn from: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2015; Nature. 

Climate change - protecting marine life - the value of seagrass

Seagrass - Mediterranean - Shutterstock

 
Over the past decade increasing attention has been paid to the importance and value of ocean marine plants particularly seagrass meadows which flank every continent except Antarctica. Most of the research focus has been directed to the value of seagrass for biodiversity, healthy fish stocks and commensurately, the fishing industry itself.  The critical value of seagrass extends much further and its loss has a range of other impacts worldwide.

Some facts illustrate the critical value of seagrass -

• although it occupies a mere 0.1 % of the ocean floor, the seagrass beds hold around 10% of buried carbon and this marine plant buries carbon up to 35 times faster than tropical rainforests on land.
• this marine plant has evolved into 72 different species with a strong subterranean root system that provides a stabilising effect on coastlines as well as elevating the levels of sediment. This effect is useful for counteracting storm surges and floods by reducing wave energy and reducing water currents.
• with higher rates of carbon dioxide entering the oceans, seagrass has been found to counteract acidic seawater. Carbon dioxide in the ocean creates carbolic acid that dissolves the shells of coral, molluscs and similar organisms.
• meadows of seagrass have been found to create 'Neptune Balls' that are fibrous bundles of plastic items that float in the ocean. Seagrass traps, sorts and sieves microplastics into these bundles each year. Given the sheer scale and magnitude of plastic in the oceans, having a natural method for filtering out this dangerous material is, in fact, a no-brainer solution.

Alas as with so many natural wonders on planet Earth, seagrass itself is under threat and disappearing at a fast rate, around 7% a year by some calculations. 

State of the Climate Report 2022 - climate change continues to be mapped in Australia

BOM/CSIRO (c)

The latest State of the Climate Report for 2022 has been published by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) continuing the unequivocal evidence of climate change and the impact on weather that is becoming the normal for this continent. The findings in summary provide sober reading at best and a portent of what is to come in the years ahead -

• Temperature: Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910.
• Sea temperature: Sea surface temperatures have increased by an average of 1.05 °C since 1900. This has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events over land and sea. 
• Rainfall: There has been a decline of around 15 per cent in April to October rainfall in the southwest of Australia since 1970. Across the same region, May to July rainfall has seen the largest decrease, by around 19 per cent since 1970.
• There has been a decrease in streamflow at most gauges across Australia since 1975.
• Rainfall and streamflow have increased across parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.
• Fire: There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of the country since the 1950s.
• There has been a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region.
• Decrease in snow: Snow depth, snow cover and number of snow days have decreased in alpine regions since the late 1950s.
• Ocean acidification: Oceans around Australia are acidifying and have warmed by more than 1 °C since 1900, contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.
• Sea level rise: Sea levels are rising around Australia, including more frequent extremes that are increasing the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.

The Report can be accessed at this link:CSIRO - BOM State of the Climate 2022 Report

The Black Death - the plague that could rise again

                                            Yersinia pestis                                  Shutterstock

The pandemic of COVID-19 has focussed attention on the risks to humanity of acquiring zoonotic diseases (diseases from animals). Some earlier zoontic diseases that had plagued the human race through the ages seemingly disappeared but that is not the reality. They remain potent threats living in proximity to humans and always with the possibility of breaking out again. One of these bacterium is best known by the name it acquired in the Middle Ages - 'The Black Death' or in one of its forms, the Bubonic Plague.

The Black Death is a pathogen from the bacterium, Yersinia pestis (or Y pestis), and constantly circulates in a host of rodents such as rats, mice, marmots, gerbils, ground squirrels and similar species with the fleas coming from these rodents being the vector of transmission to humans. Being abundant and spread across the planet means eradication is not possible and every continent is affected except Australia.

Essentially the plague comes in three forms: the bubonic stage where the bacterium invades lymph nodes in the armpit, neck and groin causing unsightly dark swelling; the septicaemic stage where it spreads throughout the blood stream enabling the bacterium to be recycled back into parasites; and the pneumonic stage where the lungs are invaded and the plague can be passed from human to human through respiratory droplets inhaled from the air or from surfaces.

The plague struck fear throughout Europe and the Middle East during the Middle Ages from 541 AD through the 13th to 16th Centuries leaving an indelible mark on folk law and stories from those periods. It faded from view after that time with only sporadic outbreaks in distant countries but never completely disappeared. There was an outbreak in Madagascar in 2017 killing 202 people and infecting 2,348 in total with the World Health Organisation now deeming it a re-emerging disease. More concerningly blood samples taken from people in Madagascar and wild animals have displayed levels of antibiotic resistance to all current antibiotics.  An antibiotic resistant Y pestis is a development the world could do without.

Planet Earth - population 8 billion and counting in 2022

                                                                                               Shutterstock

In one day's time, the United Nations has forecast that the population of planet Earth will reach 8 billion people. This is a significant milestone but not one that automatically should solicit celebrations or enthusiasm. It is a staggering point to reach given the range of problems now confronting the planet whether through existing wars and famine or through the increasing impact of climate change across all countries.

Since 1975, the world's population has been increasing by about one billion people every eleven to twelve years. This fact is itself demonstrates the extraordinary change in food production, health services including disease control and improved sanitation whether or not variable countries. 

One of the lesser known facts however is how many people actually live outside the country in which they are born. It's only about 2 to 4 % over the past 50 to 60 years according to Dr Jennifer Sciubba, a political demographer for global consultancy,  McKinseys. In those countries with ageing populations and shrinking workforces, migration may not be enough to sustain current standards of living let alone manage the challenges ahead. Equally while migration was seen as the solution for economies, it was always in a measured predictable numerical form and one that did not enable systems to deal with sudden, large displacements of people such as from the Ukraine or Venezuela.

Will reaching a global population of 8 billion make anything easier ?