A rise of 3 Degrees Celsius - the impact on Australia

In March this year, the Australian Academy of Science issued a stark warning on the future of this country if global warming is not actively slowed and ultimately stopped. The Academy's report charts both proven existing impacts and the effects of modelled temperature increases. The situation could not be more starkly or clearly demonstrated by the findings of the Academy which included -

Temperature rising

• the total emission reduction current pledged by the Australian and international government through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement, even if implemented on time will translate as an average global surface temperatures of 3 degrees Celsius (C) or more.
• the planet is well on its way to devastating climate change with average surface temperatures being at 1.1 degrees C above the pre-industrial period. Australia has had a worse outcome with warming on average by 1.4 degrees C.
• limiting climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius in now virtually impossible.

Ecosystems

• land-based environments have been affected by drought, fire, extreme heatwaves, invasive species and disease, large scale mortality of trees, birds and tree-dwelling mammals
• rising sea levels are amplifying storm impacts damaging coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangrove forests.

Australian agriculture, forestry, fisheries and food security

• reduced water availability and heat stress have contributed to reductions in profitability for broadacre crops such as wheat and barley in the magnitude of up to 22% since 2000.
• heat stress is a significant issue for livestock systems due to impacts on animal welfare, reproduction and production. Projected temperature and humidity changes suggest an increased number of heat stress days per year. 
• forestry is facing growing pressure from a warming and drying climate with increased fire risks, changes in rainfall patterns and species-specific pest impacts.

Australian cities and towns

• with close to 90% of Australians living in cities and towns, climate change experience will be manifested in various ways. 
• extreme heat wave conditions, bushfires and storms already place pressure on power stations and infrastructure while simultaneously increasing demand for energy supply for air conditioning.
• global sea level rises are already occuring and pose a severe risk to properties infrastructure and ecosystems with coastal flooding becoming a more regular feature. 160,000 to 250,000 coastal properties will be at risk with a rise of 1 metre in sea levels. 
• climate sensitive infectious diseases such as Ross River fever and other vector borne diseases shift their geographical distribution and intensity of transmission. This will only increase as climate change increases to above 2 degrees C.

The Academy's report provides sober reading and a reality check for those who believe that its only a question of avoiding a 1.5C temperature impact to avoid climate change. The climate crisis has already commenced - the only viable objective is to prevent it becoming worse.

The full report can be accessed at: Risks to Australia: three degrees Celsius