Earth Hour 2009

Earth Hour once again comes around in its 3rd year and now 3,000 cities and towns in over 90 countries are participating with the support of the United Nations. The actual level of carbon emissions saved by switching off for 60 minutes is very small however the need for constant consciousness in order to encourage policy action should not be underestimated. The chronic need for wide agreement between nations and major polluters at the Copenhagen conference this year is essential if some possibility of mitigating the most extreme effects is to be achieved.

In the World, where to go?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted a rise of the earth's temperature of between 4 degrees C and 6.4 degrees C by 2100 - this prediction is considered to be conservative and increasingly climate change science is indicating a 4 degree C temperature rise much earlier and closer to 2050. Just what impact would a 4 degree C heat increase mean?

In reality a 4 degree C heat change would be dire for the planet and for the human population. Apart from the ice melting and a sizeable increase in sea levels, increasingly frequent large violent storms and growing acidity in the sea, many parts of the planet will be arid desolate zones without the capacity to sustain life. The United States, South America, Africa, Southern Europe, the Middle East, India, China, South-East Asia and Australia for the most part would be arid deserts. Only the most Northern and most Southern parts of the planet would be warm enough to have human habitation - Canada, Alaska, Northern Europe/Scandinavia, Russia, Greenland in the North and Antartica, New Zealand, Tasmania in the South. A few pockets would remain in Western Australia and the Southern tip of South America but little else.

In order to reduce the impact of this scenario, 70% of carbon emissions would need to be reduced over the next 20 years however the opposite is occuring with carbon increases of around 3%. Perhaps this is the beginning of the end of human domination of this planet. What will come next?

How much will the sea rise ?

New Scientist (March 14, 2009) reports that the estimates or rising sea level provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which forecast a rise of 18 to 59 centimetres by 2100 are too low. The estimates did not include water from the Greenland and Antartica ice sheets and Greenland alone has enough ice which if melted would raise sea levels by 6 metres on average, worldwide. The most recent measurements show sea level has been rising 3 millimetres a year since 1993.

This is not good news as the altered estimates would bring forward the dates by which low level land and island groups would experience permanent water inundation. The difficulty with all these estimates is the lack of clear models which encompass a rigorous methodology including all known ice sources which can melt and feed directly into sea levels.

Australia's military position

According to the latest information, Australia's current military strength stands at:
Army: 26,611 full time and 15,892 Reserves
Airforce: 13,521 full time and 2,653 Reserves
Navy: 12, 935 full time and 1,785 Reserves

...with 59 main battle tanks, 71 F/A-18 fighters, 21 F-112 strike aircraft and a small handful of surface craft vessels (6 mine hunters, 4 guided missile frigates, 8 frigates, 9 amphibious landing craft and 6 submarines).

Australia ranks 13th in terms of military expenditure but only ranks 68th in terms of size of armed forces. Australia's modest military outlay of $24B USD in spending in compares very small to France at $61B USD, the United States at $713B (ex NATO) and China at $61B USD.

In total, this is a very small but high tech level military force and suitable for the South-East Asia region. The suitability of having battle tanks remain questionable given the lack of possible deployments which would require this type of armament.

Executive Salaries

The current world economic downturn again brings into sharp relief the level of remuneration of senior executive of large companies or corporations particularly where remuneration levels remain high when employees are being made redundant and or the corporation has suffered significant trading and business losses. American Sol Trujillo's remuneration for the Australian telecommunications company, Telstra is one such example. Trujillo's remuneration package in 2006 was $8.71M, then in 2007 it was $11.7M climbing to $13.4M in 2008 and he will leave the company mid year with a reported more than $30M payout. Telstra's share price has fallen during this period, it was ruled out of the tender for the national broadband network and has made redundant thousands of employees. Where is the logic of all this?

Yet this is minor compared with the stories coming out of Wall Street where financial institutions are receiving extraordinary bailouts courtesy of the American taxpayer, yet many of those responsible for the debt crisis have yet to be brought to account and have retained their massive earnings.

Australia - Victorian Bushfires

The cost in terms of life and economic loss has not been finalised however one week later the current tally from the Victorian bushfires reads with a sobering level of seriousness - 1,831 homes destroyed; 181 lives lost to date; 455,000 hectares burned plus the large financial cost which sits behind these figures. Running in parrallel to the current debate on whether the fire control policy of consistent backburning in Winter has been properly followed and the 'Leave early or stay and fight' is now valid, the question arises again as to whether these fires represent the impact of global warming. The UK Government's commissioned international committee report states that Southern Australia will experience higher temperature for longer periods and greater periods of drought. The possibility of larger and more intense fires in Australia needs to be recognised and changes are needed to reflect the new environmental reality. Patterns of settlement; forest management, water conservation should all be reassessed and altered to suit the new climatic patterns arising.

Polar Bears and the loss of ice cover

New Scientist reports (Jan 31, 2009) that the number of undernourished polar bears has tripled over the past twenty years. Polar bears only fast during the mating season during Spring and this is considered a temporary behavour. In 1985 and 1986, the proportion of bears fasting was 9.6% and 10.5% respectively however by 2005 and 2006 this had risen to 21.4% and 29.3% - triple the earlier twenty years. The amount of ice melting which reduces platforms from which bears can fish as well as provide nesting dens for seals to build for their pups is seen as the main culprit. With this aspect and a vast array of other data coming to light, its difficult to see how there can be doubters still consistently saying that global warming is not a real and genuine phenomenon.

The question of motivation

While I'm sitting here trying to overcome a procrastination (rather than writer's block) my thoughts again turn to why I want to write - to tell stories? - to inspire others? - to entertain? - to inform? boredom? to influence debate and direction in the wider community? I'm really not sure as it could be one or many of the above or indeed none of the above reasons. Some writers have something to say in fiction which they know would never be read if written as an essay in non fiction. My feeling is the inspiration for myself to tell stories is to impart something more than the tale itself but to reflect on the human condition and the way in which different events are perceived.

Valentine's Day in the modern era

Each year, once again Valentine's Day comes around on 14 February. Although its history has stronger religious overtones, from Geoffrey Chaucer's time onward it has been a moment of expressing romance between lovers. However for the 20th and 21st Century, it is a time of the sound of ringing cash registers as ridiculous sums are spent on ridiculously marked up flowers, cards, chocolates, dinners and just about anything with a heart shape. The original meaning of St Valentine's Day has long been lost with the overbearing commercialisation of the day. For many without Valentines (or partners committed to the practice of sending flowers) the day can be a source of frustration and an ever present reminder of singledom.

As the US political leadership wrangles over the stimulus package, President Obama has commented that if he doesn't fix things in three years, he will be a one term president. Its a possible but unlikely scenario at this stage.