Climate Change and Sea levels - rising how far?

New Scientist (July 2009) has outlined various new estimates concerning sea levels rising at a rate and speed greater than the forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report. The IPCC had forecast a sea level rise of between 19 and 59 centimetres by 2100 but the report did exclude any rapid dynamic changes in ice flow in future years. The consensus now is that the IPCC estimates were far too optimistic. By far the most immediate contributor to sea level changes is the melting of glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica, Alaska to the Himalayas. Of particular note, is the number of sources for rising sea levels which demonstrate that warmer temperatures have different impacts not just the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The second observation is the degree to which ocean levels have already been rising for several decades.

New modelling indicates that the sea will in fact rise by 80 centimetres by 2100 and will continue rising beyond that date. For many parts of the world at zero elevation from sea level such as most Pacific Island groups, Bangladesh, Holland and many coastal strips in larger continents, the impact will be felt within this century. Sea levels will render heavily populated coastal land strips as unmanageable and unliveable. That sea levels will rise is an inescapable fact even with a reduction in greehouse gas emissions although the rate and degree can be influenced by CO2 reduction.

Planning for mass population relocation may be an unpalatable but essential reality of existence on planet Earth. Are Governments up to this challenge?

Bubble and Squeak - Methane a new energy source?

With the constant pressure to find alternative energy sources to reduce reliance on environmentally damaging coal fired generators and other fossil fuels, attention has turned to the high concentrations of methane which are found in various countries. In particular methane clathrate has become a favoured possible alternative energy source. Methane clathrate consists of molecules of methane trapped within ice crystals. With an appearance similar to dirty ice and a sorbet-like consistency, the application of heat rapidly ignites methane clathrates which omit about half as much carbon dioxide as burning coal.

Large deposits of methane clathrates can be found throughout the world in Central America, Japan, India, Alaska and Siberia both in permafrost and under the Ocean. The technology for extracting this energy source is still experimental and with methane clathrates lodged in fragile ice crystals, the safety and economic viability is in question. Also the methane molecule is twenty times as powerful as CO2 in warming the air. With rising sea temperatures, it would take little to release ocean clathrate reserves into the atmosphere.

Getting onto Carbon Emissions - the United States

The United States House of Representatives passed legislation on Friday last week intended to address global warming and transform the way the US produces and uses energy. It's the first time that either House of the US Congress had approved a bill meant to curb the heat-trapping gases which have been linked to climate change by a plethora of scientists and institutions worldwide. As the New York Times reports, the legislation could lead to profound changes in many sectors of the economy, including electric power generation, agriculture, manufacturing and construction.

Of note, the bill passed by a vote of 219 to 212, with 44 Democrats voting against it, and only eight Republicans voting for the bill. It remains concerning that the margin of the vote in favour was so small on such a critical issue. Nonetheless it will assist the United States when international negotiations on a new climate change treaty begin at the end of this year in Copenhagen.

The critical feature of the legislation is a cap-and-trade system which sets a limit on overall emissions of heat-trapping gases and allows utilities, manufacturers and other emitters to trade pollution permits, or allowances, among themselves. The cap would grow tighter over the years, pushing up the price of emissions and presumably driving industry to find cleaner ways of making energy. This is a standard approach in carbon emission trading schemes although it is often a contentious method if the timeline for emission reduction is too long.

As difficult as House passage proved, as the New York Times comments, it's just the beginning of the energy and climate debate in Congress. The issue now moves to the Senate, where political divisions and regional differences are even more stark.

The legislation is a patchwork of compromises and does fall far short of what many European governments and environmentalists have said is needed is essential to avert the worst effects of global warming which is steadily bearing down on the planet. While some environmentalists enthusiastically supported the legislation, others, including Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, opposed it. The US response is indeed weaker than the direction taken by the European Union. The bill has a number of key components nonetheless-

• A goal of reducing greenhouse gases in the United States to 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, and 83 percent by midcentury.


• Sets a national standard of 20 percent for the production of renewable electricity by 2020, although a third of that could be met with efficiency measures rather than renewable energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal power.


• Devotes billions of dollars to new energy projects and subsidies for low-carbon agricultural practices, research on cleaner coal and electric vehicle development.

Overall however this is a good step forward by the United States and one which will enable greater leverage for American negotiators in Copenhagen. It also sends a message to China, India and Russia that the US is finally moving on this issue which should provide a greater incentive for those countries not to delay taking action as well.

How long will it last?

The time taken for objects to dissolve at Sea -

Paper...2 to 5 months; Milk carton...5 years; Cigarette butt... 10 to 12 years; Plastic Bag...10 to 20 years; Disposable Nappy...75 years; Tin can...100 years; Styrfoam...unknown/unlimited; Plastic drink bottle...450 years (est); Nylon fishing line... 600 years (est); Glass bottle... unknown/unlimited.

These are frightening statistics when seen in the context of the volume of refuse being discharged into the ocean.

The Ocean as a floating rubbish dump

Ecology Today has drawn attention to the huge plastic waste dump which has grown and expanded in the Northern Pacific Ocean measuring twice the size of the continental United States. It stretches from around 500 nautical miles off the coast of California all the way to Japan to a depth of 10 metres below the surface of the sea.

Sea currents transport the waste into ocean “dead zones”, large areas of water that are slow moving circular currents which trap debris into one large constantly moving mass of plastic. This mass of plastic is slowly being broken down into a plastic dust that marine wildlife mistake for food with the result that many species in the food chain from fish through to ocean birds are being affected. The UN Environmental Program estimates that over a million seabirds, as well as more than 100 thousand marine mammals, die every year from ingesting plastic debris.

Ecology Today reports that the area is known as the Northern Pacific Gyre, one of five gyres in the world’s oceans. These gyres are areas of sea where water circulates clockwise in a very slow spiral. As winds are light the currents tend to force any floating material into the low energy centre of the gyre thus everything afloat becomes trapped in these “dead zones”.

Besides being a danger in itself, these vast areas of plastic pollution act as chemical sponge attracting other damaging pollutants, such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs), hydrocarbons and pesticides such as DDT that have leached or been released into the oceans from runoff or drainage. While this pollution contains huge amounts of plastic waste not all of it is floating on the surface as wave action and the heat of the sun degrades the plastic into smaller particles.

The need for action to reduce plastic contamination could not be greater given the scale of the existing environmental degradation.

When is a vote worth more than one? Update

News this week that Iran's most powerful oversight council has announced on Monday that the number of votes recorded in 50 cities exceeded the number of eligible voters there by three million has further tarnished the 2009 presidential election. This controversy has set off a sustained challenge to Iran’s leadership for the first time in 30 years. The current Government has claimed the voting discrepancy has not affected the overall result however it would be hard for Iranian voters to have any confidence that the electoral system has been fair and truly reflected voter intent. Crackdowns by police and militia are unlikely to change perceptions either within or outside of Iran concerning the invalid nature of the presidential poll. It remains to be seen how far either side of the debate will venture however Iran's security structure is formidable and has already demonstrated the willingness to use lethal force against its own citizens.

Iran - A desire for change

The recent Iranian presidential elections have drawn attention to an increasing desire from much of the population for a change in direction from that country's top leadership. The election held on June 13, 2009, saw Mir Hussein Moussavi defeated by incumbent President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (pictured at left) in a disputed result. Mr. Moussavi was allegedly defeated by 63 percent to 34 percent of the popular vote. The New York Times reported this week that Mr. Moussavi, thousands of demonstrators who represent a cross section of Iranian society and part of the clerical establishment have called the official results a fraud. Mr. Moussavi, is a former prime minister with a reputation for honesty and competence and is very much an insider in Iranian ruling circles.

His personal history includes being a leading figure in the Revolution which overthrew the former Shah of Iran and he was close to Ayatollah Khomeini. His credentials therefore are beyond question in Iran which makes his stand all the more poignant. Notably during the final weeks of the electioneering, Mr. Moussavi's campaign had gained enormous energy with huge rallies in the streets of Tehran both day and night which have now been followed by enormous rallies and public support (pictured right) following the election defeat.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in comparison has become an unpopular figure and is often perceived as the face of radicalism and repression in a country where people would much prefer not to been seen as a pariah in international circles. Iran has a very youthful population and modern technology has opened up communication opportunities which the Iranian Government has had difficulty in shutting down or censoring.

An added complication has been that the supreme leader in Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been uncompromising over the nation’s disputed Presidential elections and has publicly supported the result. In a hard-line statement and sermons, he has declared the elections to be valid. Further he has warned of violence if demonstrators continue, as they have pledged, to flood the streets in defiance of the government.

Film Festivals - reflections on our wider society

The Sydney Film Festival for 2009 concluded on Sunday 14 June, after a relatively modest run this year - shortened by a week to reduce costs. There are now dozens of film festivals across the World with the most famous being Cannes and Sundance but several others such as Berlin, Venice, Toronto, Tribeca and Moscow are also well known and patronised. Film Festivals, particularly for alternate, art-house cinema often are reflections on societal trends, attitudes and current historical events. In many respects due to their non-block buster nature and limited expectations on commercial returns, this genre of film making can address topics which audiences may find difficult to accept - family dysfunctionalism, political issues, relationships, illnesses and even death are familiar themes. By using the medium of moving image, film conveys messages and provides stories with dimensional structure which other forms of communication do so with less success. The Sydney Film Festival in 2009 was no different with a selection of art-house films across the spectrum of features, documentaries, animation and docu-dramas. This year, films of interest included the black comedy '500 Days of Summer', 'Bronson', 'In the Loop', 'Louise-Michel' and five hours of Steven Soderbergh's view of the life of revolutionary, Che Guevara - screened in two parts.

Automation and corporate responsibility

For over the past thirty years, the automation of a number of customer/consumer service functions has been a consistent and unrelenting trend. Services as varied as telephony, travel services (ticketing and check-in as illustrated), reservations, banking, and parking for motor vehicles have seen live human beings replaced by computerised equipment for automated service delivery. The basis for much of this automation has been to improve efficiency, timing, reduce costs and allow customers the flexibility to make their own arrangements at their own convenience. Indeed the corporate cost line has been seen as the primary beneficiary of this trend.

The media have often commented on these evolutionary trends but perhaps the fundamental change is not related to cost but rather corporate responsibility. By placing the emphasis on customers and the general public to make manage their own services, the responsibility and accountability of corporations to ensure that services are delivered efficiently has been reduced if not almost abrogated. A parrallel argument is that automation, while reducing cost of services to corporations has not necessarily translated into reducing overall costs to consumers. While some online services may have reduced the prices of some products, there are many others where the changes have been few and in fact a base price decrease has been more than matched by other related costs such as transport increasing.

In broad terms, this trend is one which had brought an unhealthy dislocation in human to human contact for a contestable concept of benefits.

A Wind that blows so strong

In our solar system, the Sun continuously emits a stream of charged particles which is the so termed 'solar wind' against which the Earth's magnetosphere acts as barrier. However the solar wind also acts as a defence against a range of cosmic rays which come into the solar system and which potentially could be harmful to both spacecraft and astronauts alike. Currently the sun has been going through what is perceived as an active phase, generally thought to measure between 95 years and a 116 years in duration. According to current measurement, this phase has already been progressing for the past 80 years meaning that a lower level of activity or general lull could occur around 2020. Whether the Sun does lull in activity or not, it does not impact on climate change or carbon emissions which remain a terrestrial concern.