2024 - The New Year beckons

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The start of the new year of 2024 is approaching... with a large number of unknown factors at play both domestically and internationally, it would not be surprising to find many people looking at the next 12 months with some trepidation. Serious armed conflicts in various parts of the world, increasing impacts of climate change, destabilising political movements in liberal democracies, economic uncertainties all contribute to a sense of general unease. More than ever its important to connect with each other, with friends and family to provide a measure of social network support. 

Happy New Year wherever you may reside.

Conflict in 2024

 

Will the world see more wars or unrest in 2024? Here are 5 hotspots to watch

Jessica Genauer, Flinders University

Sadly, 2023 has been a violent one on the global stage. War broke out between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, leading to the deaths of thousands of Palestinians and hundreds of Israelis, including many children on both sides. And the bitter war between Russia and Ukraine continued with no end in sight.

As a result of the focus on these two conflicts, other countries have dropped off the radar for many people. Some of these nations have been dealing with simmering unrest, however, which could erupt in 2024 and seize the global spotlight.

So, where should we be watching in the coming year? Here are five places where I believe civil conflicts or unrest could worsen and potentially lead to violence.

Myanmar

Myanmar descended into chaos in 2021 when a military coup overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi and sparked widespread civil protests that eventually morphed into an armed resistance.

The country, home to 135 ethnic groups, has rarely known peace. For years before the coup, there was a ongoing, low-grade civil conflict between the military and several minority ethnic groups who have long sought control over natural resources in their regions and independence from the state.

This exploded after the coup as ethnic militia groups joined forces with pro-democracy fighters from the Bamar majority protesting the junta.

Their resistance escalated in late 2023 with a coordinated northern offensive dealing the military its most significant losses in many years.

Insurgents won control of towns and villages on the northeastern border with China, including control over key trade routes. This led to renewed fighting in western Rakhine state, as well as in other areas.

The tenacity of the resistance of these minority groups, paired with the refusal of the military to compromise, suggests the country’s civil war may worsen considerably in 2024 and regain international attention.

Mali

In Mali, a nation in the turbulent Sahel region of Africa, tensions escalated throughout 2023 and now threaten to erupt into full-scale civil war.

Mali has long battled insurgent activity. In 2012, Mali’s government fell in a coup and Tuareg rebels, backed by Islamist militants, seized power in the north.

A United Nations peacekeeping mission was established in 2013 to bring stability to Mali. Then, in 2015, key rebel groups signed a peace agreement with the Mali government.

After two more coups in 2020 and 2021, military officers consolidated their power and said they would restore the state’s full territorial control over all of Mali. The regime insisted the UN peacekeeping mission withdraw from the country, which it did in June 2023. Subsequently, violence broke out between the military and rebel forces over future use of the UN bases.

In November, the military, reportedly backed by Russia’s Wagner Group, took control of the strategic northern town of Kidal which had been held by Tuareg forces since 2012. This undermines the fragile peace that has held since 2015.

It is unlikely the military will regain complete control over all rebel-held areas in the north. At the same time, insurgents are emboldened. With the 2015 peace agreement now all but dead, we can expect increased volatility in 2024.

Lebanon

In 2019, widespread civil protest broke out in Lebanon against leaders who were perceived not to be addressing the day-to-day needs of the population.

The situation continued to deteriorate, with a reshuffled government, escalating economic crisis and a massive port explosion that exposed corrupt practices.

The International Monetary Fund criticised Lebanon in September for a lack of economic reform. The Lebanese government has also failed to reach agreement on appointing a president, a post that has been vacant for more than a year.

This risks undermining the fragile power-sharing arrangement in Lebanon in which the key political posts of prime minister, speaker and president are allocated to a Sunni-Muslim, Shia-Muslim and Christian Maronite, respectively.

Most recently, the war between Israel and Hamas has threatened to spill over to Lebanon, home to the Hezbollah militant group, which claims to have an army of 100,000 fighters. Importantly, this jeopardises tourism as a key hope for Lebanon’s economic recovery.

These factors may precipitate a more serious economic and political collapse in 2024.

Pakistan

Since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, the military has played an interventionist role in politics. Though Pakistani leaders are popularly elected, military officials have at times removed them from power.

In 2022, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan fell out of favour with Pakistan’s militant leaders. He was subsequently ousted from power in a parliament vote and later arrested on charges that his supporters claim are politically motivated.

Violent demonstrations broke out nationwide after his arrest – a display of anger against the military that was once unthinkable.

Pakistan also faces spillover from instability in neighbouring Afghanistan and increased terror attacks. These security challenges have been compounded by a struggling economy and ongoing costs from the devastating 2022 floods.

Pakistan is expected to hold parliamentary elections in February 2024, after which the current military caretaker government is expected to transfer power back to civilian rule. Many are watching the military closely. If this transfer of power does not take place, or there are delays, civil unrest may result.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka faced a debilitating economic crisis in 2022 that led to critical fuel, food and medical shortages. Civil protests caused then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. He was quickly replaced by current President Ranil Wickremesingh.

Stability returned in 2023 as Sri Lanka began implementing economic reforms as part of a bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund. However, widespread dissatisfaction with political elites and the underlying drivers of the country’s economic hardship have not been addressed.

Elections are also due in Sri Lanka by late 2024. While Wickremesingh, the incumbent, is likely to run for a second term, he has low trust with the public. He is viewed as too close to corrupt political elites.

This dissatisfaction could lead to renewed protests – particularly if the economy stumbles again – in a repeat of the situation that led to Rajapaksa’s ousting in 2022.

Jessica Genauer, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Flinders University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Christmas 2023

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In an uncertain world with conflict, existential climate and environmental impacts and economic unknowns, it's important to find time to find some time for peace, serenity and connection with family and friends.

Seasonal greetings wherever you are and whatever your faith or beliefs. 

Emissions in an industrialised world - COP28

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COP28 to be held shortly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will open with the acceptance that the current efforts to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are well short of targets to prevent the global temperature increasing beyond 1.5C. The UAE's COP28 president has highlighted that approx 22 gigatons of GHG emissions need to be cut over the next seven years. This means a reduction of 43% in emissions from the 2019 levels that would need to be achieved by 2030. These are staggering numbers and represent the continuing failure globally to make any measurable difference thus far.

COP28 website: COP28 UAE

COP28 - Will meaningful action on global warming come from this forum ?

The next Council of the Parties (COP 28) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in the United Arab Emirates between 30 November and 12 December 2023. As the conference numbering suggests, this is the 28th meeting of representatives from countries around the world yet with climate change now measurably underway, how effective have the previous 27 meetings been ? And will the 28th meeting achieve more substantial progress than its predecessors ?

With a conference theme and buzzword being "actionism", the Conference promises that the first global stocktake of the implementation of the Paris Agreement will conclude at COP28 with the aim of assessing the world's collective progress towards achieving its climate goals. It may be a disappointing exercise given current global environment trends.

PFAS chemicals - a world wide contamination

Contamination of both the general environment and the human population from chemicals has long been a deep concern and for the most part, the issue has been one that can be controlled with the ''its-not-too-late" ethos. For this issue however, that ethos cannot apply.

The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) provides the basic understanding of the scale of the problem that is now an irreversible contamination of world-wide significance. 

The CDC states " The per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a group of chemicals used to make fluoropolymer coatings and products that resist heat, oil, stains, grease and water. Fluoropolymer coatings can be in a variery of products. These include clothing, furniture, adhesives, food packaging, heat-resistant non-stick cooking surfaces, and the insulation of electrical wire. Many PFAS, including  perfluorooctanoic sulfonic acid  (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), are a concern  because they:

• do not break down in the environment
• can move through soils and contaminate drinking water
• build up (bioaccumulate) in fish and wildlife

PFAS are found in rivers and lakes and in many types of animals on land and water"

A fact sheet can be obtained at this link: CDC biomonitoring PFAS Fact Sheet

A Bloomberg video explains the issue further -