Thursday 29 December 2016

2017 - A new year but continuing and increasing challenges

2017 beckons as the end of 2016 draws near. Many of the challenging issues of 2016 will carry through into the new year in areas such as the economy, foreign affairs, terrorism, national identity and disillusionment with traditional politics. The ongoing baseline issue of the environment, climate change and energy needs will continue to pose an extraordinary and existential threat to all of the planet as it has for the past two decades.

In economic terms, the world's overall GDP movement remains patchy with small but incremental growth in the United States, continued slowing expansion in China and a flat line in Europe and Japan. South America continues to experience hard economic conditions and the glut of oil has led to falling revenues for producers in the Gulf. There is little insight into the impact of the United Kingdom exiting the European Union (Brexit) or the influence of Donald Trump in the United States until he takes office from January 2017 onwards. In many respects, it is a watching game.

In terms of foreign affairs and terrorism, the war in Syria and Iraq will progress until one side is finally victorious. The only certainty is the eventual defeat of the Islamic State/Daesh group. All other scenarios are impossible to predict as most professional military and foreign relations commentators have reported.

Traditional political parties will continue to lose support if they operate on a business-as-usual basis. Across the long standing democracies, large segments of society are dissatisfied with the responsiveness and conduct with many of the ruling elites and the political class in general. Elections in 2017 will show whether this is now an established situation or merely a short-lived transit protest. It will also be a watching game.

Wherever you are, all the best for 2017.

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