Penguins awash - sea ice loss impacts another species

Emperor Penguin - Antarctica

Most people are familiar with the image of an Emperor Penguin even if they are not altogether sure which species of penguin they are looking at. Made famous by the 2005 blockbuster documentary, March of the Penguins, based on the  Dumont d'Urville colony of 2,500 birds, the Emperor Penguin is a native of Antarctica and like polar bears in the Northern Hemisphere, faces a bleak future through the loss of sea ice due to global warming. Sea ice is critical for the Emperor Penguin as all but two of the 46 surveyed colonies in Antarctica are located on the ice and the birds are not agile enough to scale the continent's steep rocky shoreline and ice precipices. Stable sea ice is essential for the birds to moult and their stable diet of krill, which also is dependent on sea ice for survival. The little current evidence of the future for Emperor Penguins is not positive with sea ice declining, on average 1 to 2 % per annum. A small colony of Emperor Penguins located on the Dion Islands has already disappeared. In 1948 there were 300 adults, in 1999 it had reduced to just 40 and a decade later there were none. Other Antarctic native penguin populations, such as the Adelie and chinstrap are also trending downwards for presumably similar reasons.

Coffee and Global Warming - the risk is out there

While most of the effects of global warming and climate change focus on rising seas, higher temperatures, ocean salinity, super storms and so on, a number of other impacts which will affect human population are often overlooked or sparsely presented. One aspect of climate change which will cause concern is the world-wide reduction of coffee supplies. Coffee is grown in over 70 countries around the world, supports over 26 million farmers and generates exports of over $15 billion a year mainly for developing countries. The coffee industry is reliant for two thirds of its production from just one species, Coffea arabica, which originated from Ethiopia over four centuries ago. C. arabica requires temperatures between 180C and 210C with a reasonable mix of dry weather (for buds to grow) and wet weather (for flowering). From 230C upwards the plant exhibits stress and produces poorer quality beans and above 300C the plant develops tumours and loses its leaves.

Between 2009 and 2012 coffee yields fell to a 35 year low due to extraordinary rains and then unseasonable dryness - a portent of events to come. According to the IPCC's most optimistic projections, by 2080 around 65% of current geographic locations for wild coffee will be unsuitable and this rises up to 99.7% at the worst case scenario. Coffee production will fall well before 2080 however and within the next twenty years. Matched with the changing temperature is the expanded proliferation of the coffee weevil,  Hypothenemus hampei which has spread to every coffee-producing country with the exceptions of Nepal and China. This small borer attackes the coffee beans and requires only a small temperature rise to increase the number of generations born in any cycle. On current trends and with estimates of warming up to 4 degrees Celsius higher, up to ten generations of borer could occur each year.

The only option is to find a substitute for C arabica form the 125 other species of coffee which might tolerate global warming and be drinkable. As yet, none have been positively proven although coffea canephora (also known as Robusta) shows promise.

 

On being British - the English Identity

As the 21st Century unfolds, a constant presence to Australia remains its former colonial 'mother' country, Great Britain (or its 20th Century term the 'United Kingdom'). The UK gave the world: football, the Beatles, Shakespeare, the industrial revolution and the steam engine. But where is the future leading for the British ? 

In demographic terms, the United Kingdom is a very crowded set of little islands. In 2011 the total population of the United Kingdom including Northern Ireland was 63,181,775 while England's share of the population was found to be 53 million. It is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, with 383 people resident per square kilometre in mid-2003, with a particularly strong concentration located in London and the south-east. The 2011 census put Scotland's population at 5.3 million, Wales at 3.06 million and Northern Ireland at 1.81 million. In percentage terms England has had the fastest growing population of any part of the UK (including Ireland) in the period from 2001 to 2011, with an increase of 7.9%.

Research by the OECD has traced an image of a highly stratified society in Britain where background determines a person's success to a far higher degree than in almost any other rich country. According to the OECD, 'education is not as important for social mobility in Britain as for other countries. Class is the most likely explanation', according to the Paris-based OECD's economics department. 

The aristocracy, including the landed classes, frequently seek to shore up their financial position and admire the middle and professional classes capacity to generate money. Since the end of the Second World War in 1945, many of the landed families who had large estates found they had little direct cash flow to sustain their way of life. During the 1960s and 1970s it was popular for the landed aristocracy to open zoos and wild animal parks on their estates or to open their large manors as quasi museums to the public.

The Middle Class in England although increasingly wealthy still grudgingly aspire to be titled members of the Aristocracy - to marry into or to obtain a title whether inherited or conferred on merit (to be a Lord, Earl, or be Duke or reach a Knighthood) remains important to the British. When Kate Middleton married Prince William Windsor, the Queen's grandson in 2011, it was a middle class wet dream. Kate Middleton not only had joined the monarchy but had also become the Duchess of Cambridge.

Amongst the lower classes are a group called 'chavs'. This class is often characterised as being rough working class with anti-social behaviour matched with drinking, drug taking, wearing Burberry and otherwise living on welfare. There are many in the middle and upper class/aristocratic classes who secretly admire the chavs with their uncouth, 'stuff this' attitude and its a small badge of honour to have chav acqaintances.  

Recent changes in the polity have seen devolution of political power to legislatures in Scotland and Wales rather than being run by the central government in London. With constant pressure for more powers to be conferred to these new quasi states, the question  which arises is will the United Kingdom become the 'Untied Kingdom' ?

Film Review - Hitchcock - Anthony Hopkins

Anthony Hopkins as Alfred Hitchock

Hitchcock a partial biopic on one period of the famous film director's life is a pleasureable, easy to watch film on screen with the lead roles expertly handled by Anthony Hopkins (as Alfred Hitchcock), Helen Mirren (as Alma Reville, Hitchcock's wife) and Scarlett Johansson (as actress, Janet Leigh). The one period covered in this partial biopic is the story choice and shooting of Hitchcock's well regarded seminal film, Psycho. Sacha Gervasi's film has attracted a strong level of criticism for adopting too much poetic license with creating an excessive importance for various characters who were real life people - Alma Reville is represented as being a critical player in both writing the screenplay for Psycho as well as stepping-in as director when Hitchcock is unwell at home in bed although none of this is accurate. Hitchcock himself is represented as being a voyeur, insecure in his sexuality and with his own professional confidence as a film director. Hitchcock purists particularly find this proposition an anathema and see the film as selling the master film maker too short. The film nonetheless is enjoyable to watch with strong performances by the leads with opening and closing scenes reminiscent of Hitchcock's own narrative style for story framing.

2013 - Outlook

2013 commences with many uncertainties encompassing many global economies, volatile international affairs and the ever present, ongoing threats to the environment. Little has changed from 2012 with weak economies in the United States, the European Union and Japan. Conflicts continue in Syria and Afghanistan with no end in sight for resolution and the spectre of climate change hovers over the globe. On the positive side, efforts continue to  manage the current  high debt levels in the developed world and end dates exist for some of the serious military conflicts. Yet despite these actions, 2013 starts from a net negative position with the prospect that the best outcome for the next 12 months is one where no situation becomes any worse.

Christmas 2012

Christmas has a number of special customs and practices drawn from various sources whether religious, pagan or simply cultural. One of the most widely accepted practices is the erection of a Christmas tree, the origins of which can be found far back in the period of the Renaissance era during Christian celebrations and with the early guilds in Germany and Livonia (now known as Latvia and Estonia). The first evidence of decorated trees associated with Christmas Day were trees in guildhalls decorated with sweets to be enjoyed by the apprentices and children in the guild halls. In 1441, 1442, 1510 and 1514, the Brotherhood of Blackheads erected a tree for the holidays in their guild houses in Tallinn and Riga. In the early 19th century, the custom became popular among the nobility and spread to royal courts across Europe as far as Russia. 

The tree was traditionally decorated with edibles such as apples, nuts or dates. In the 18th century, it began to be illuminated by candles which evolved in the 20th Century to being small electric lights with ever more elaborate forms of decorations. Customary practice is to place presents to family and loved ones under thr tree for discovery on Christmas Day. As this year draws to a close with many conflicts and challenges across the globe, the tree represents a simple link to the past which transcends across time to the future with the concept of life and generosity of spirit.

 

Where to now for Africa's Elephants ?

The estimates of the elephant population in Africa paint a grim picture of events taking place on that continent - from an estimated population and range of 1.3 million elephants in 1979, by 2007 the number had declined to 472,000 to 690,000. In many parts of Africa, elephants are now dying faster than they are being born almost entirely due to the impact of poaching. The Kenyan Wildlife Service found in a census this year that the elephant population in the Samburu / Laikopia region had lost over 1,000 elephants in just four years as the animals are slaughtered for their ivory. Similar events are occuring across several African countries. In Central and Western Africa, poaching accounts for between 84 % and 90 % of all elephant deaths while in Eastern and Southern Africa, the percentages are 51 % to 59 % of all deaths. These are extraordinary numbers and if maintained will lead to the extinction of the species in the wild in Africa within a relatively short time-frame. Poachers, including heavily armed groups use AK-47 assault rifles and RPG rocket propelled grenades to kill whole herds with the ivory predominantly being exported to Asia (China, Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines).