IPCC Report February 2022: adaptation to climate change falls well behind

                                                              IPCC 2022

The latest report from Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) continues the well established trend of identifying the sadly lagging response to the threat of climate change globally. While a few concrete steps have been taken to address carbon emissions and mitigation, these efforts remain substantially insufficient and in many cases, badly misdirected.

A number of messages in the report emphasise the importance of close collaboration between all parts of society: Government, private sector, media, the scientific community, investors and essentially international cooperation.

There is also a sense that many of the 'soft limits' to human adaptation have been reached and increasingly the next steps will be harder to achieve with options now increasingly closing off with the risk of cascade events more likely.

Key points covered in this report -

• it is unequivocal that climate change has already disrupted human and natural systems. Past and current development trends (past emissions, development and climate change) have not advanced global climate resilient development.
• climate resilient development prospects are increasingly limited if current greenhouse gas emissions do not rapidly decline, especially if 1.5C global warming is exceeded in the near term.  the Report also noted that " evidence of observed impacts, projects risks, levels and trends in vulnerability, and adaptation limits, demonstrate that worldwide climate resilient development action is more urgent than previously assessed in the 5th Assessment Report".
• the rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and humans systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt.
• approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change.
• climate change impacts and risks are becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously and multiple climatic and non climatic risks will interact resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions.
• Note a key caveat about global warming that transiently exceeds 1.5C which is termed 'overshoot'. "Depending on the magnitude and duration of overshoot, some impacts will cause the release of additional greenhouse gases and some will be irreversible even if global warming is reduced".

The IPCC report can be accessed at this link: IPCC Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability report

The Ukrainian Armed Forces - outnumbered but still lethal

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Ukraine's armed forces may be small by comparison with their Russian counterparts, however they have lethal capabilities and after seven years of battling insurgency in the two breakaway provinces, a level of combat experience has been gained.

Ukraine to its great credit could have had nuclear weapons but discarded these lethal weapons many years ago. These weapons were part of the Soviet arsenal but the Ukraine decided to have them dismantled at part of the arms control treaty.

A brief comparison of key categories of assets in the armed forces of both countries is provided below drawn from various sources including the European Union.

Military assets	Russia	Ukraine
Personnel Active Reserves	1,154,000 2,000,000	255,000 1,000,000
Army and other land forces Armoured vehicles Tanks Artillery Self-propelled artillery Rocket launchers	26,831 12,270 18,497 6,500 4,350	6,990 2,105 3,721 1,040 630
Air Force Fighters Multirole aircraft Attack aircraft Helicopters Combat drones	5,550 832 870 1,720 30	70 0 29 120 12
Navy Aircraft carrier Destroyers Frigates Corvettes Submarines	1 18 11 83 55+	0 0 1 0 0
Military budgets 2020	$ 61.7B	$ 5.9B

Russia dwarfs the Ukraine in every form of military asset capability except the critical one: morale and commitment to defend one's homeland. After two weeks of war, the Ukrainians have demonstrated the willingness and capacity to defend their country.

Russia and war with the Ukraine - Putin's Pronouncement

 Vladimir Putin - Shutterstock

 
Like an old-style Soviet autocrat, former KGB Lieutenant-Colonel and long serving president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin has initiated the war with the Ukraine. The decision was made solely by Putin without just cause and seemingly not supported by the Russian people at large. A largely symbolic vote by the Russian Parliament (the Duma) to recognise the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk did not include authorising war against the Ukraine. Significant and large protests across Russian cities and towns bear witness to the opposition to Putin's war.

Putin has variously been described in the media as madman, delusional, various other colourful descriptions and compared to either Hitler or Stalin. This reaction however largely obscures the informed analysis of his views provided by foreign affairs commentators and Russian political analysts. The fundamental core of Putin's decision remains his oft-stated view of what Russia lost with the disintegration of the former Soviet Union. He has always maintained that this event was a disaster and as a consequence he has sought to seemingly reverse the loss of prestige, territory, power and influence for Russia. This is largely at the expense of countries within Russia's historical sphere of influence and is very much the perspective of a former KGB officer.

Putin's views were again clearly demonstrated in the recorded meeting of Russia's Security Council on 22 February 2022. At this staged meeting, Putin commented on the Russian empire (whatever that is) and variously claimed the Ukraine was a colony with a puppet regime, was created by Lenin, was acquiring nuclear weapons and that the Russian and Ukrainian were actually one people and hence it should not exist. Putin has also commented that he does not want countries that join NATO to be the immediate neighbours to Russia itself.

Even Putin's intelligence chief and long term associate from the KGB days, Sergei Natyshkin was left stumbling and unsure what to say as Putin insisted he provide a full endorsement of the direction being taken. 

Putin operates with a flawed understanding of what action other countries may take. He has probably estimated that -

• NATO is unlikely to directly confront Russia and it will not fight for the Ukraine.
• Western sanctions can be weathered and have been factored into his calculations on the risks for  Russia in this conflict
• Russia has prepared for this war with modernising its Armed Forces and building significant foreign reserves to enable some level of protection from Western sanctions.

Within Russia's own intelligentsia and military commentators, there is little actual concern about NATO and the perceived threat which Putin alludes to. This is Putin's war with at worst only vague support amongst the Russian people and at best, the FSB (the successor organisation to the KGB), the breakaway provinces and senior officers in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. It is however hard to measure given the level of suppression of any public opinion in Russia.

Russia's military capability - the New Look and the Ukraine

Russian light armoured vehicles - Belarus - Shutterstock

With the ongoing invasion of the Ukraine by Russia at the instigation of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, much public commentary has focussed rightly on the unequal scale of advantage that the Russian military possess compared to their Ukrainian counterparts. This comparison is fully justified as the Russian forces both numerically outnumber the Ukrainians and also technologically, but notably not in all forms of weaponry.

Russia has been upgrading its Armed Forces for many years commencing from 2008 not in respect of the Ukraine, but generally due to the wide range of legacy systems from the Soviet era and also the quite poor performance of several parts of the Russian military in the Georgian conflict that year. Following the end of the conflict, then chief of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov decided that a massive overhaul was needed and this program became known as the "New Look".

This initiative included a complete change in the Russian Federation Armed Forces military structure that had barely altered since the period of the Soviet Union. The new structure is more versatile, mobile and tailored to operational requirements with no reliance on mass mobilisation that was a feature of the Soviet era. The process of the New Look has been progressing through the State Armament Program 2011-2020 and has been a very long term objective.

The Russians have benefitted from combat experience and systems testing through conflicts in Syria, the Crimea, Georgia and covert operations in eastern Ukraine with the breakaway provinces.  A brief summary of key changes in the Russian military is listed below -

Army/ground forces

• Smaller combat units have been created termed Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs, usually a battalion of infantry or armour reinforced with additional armour or infantry units with artillery, air defence and electronic warfare.
• Tank modernisation has predominantly been upgrading existing T-72 tanks but progress has been slow and new generation battle tanks such as the T-14 and T-15 IFV are still being tested in trials. Armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles are mainly legacy vehicles of the past and new-generation equipment is not widely available.
• Missile and rocket artillery is where significant change has occured (this is a favoured munition of the Russians stretching back to to World War II). A new 500 kilometre-range missile termed the 9K720 Iskander has replaced the 120 km-range Tochka-U. The Iskander can utilize both ballistic and cruise missiles. The existing BM-30 Smerch multiple rockets launcher system (often seen in media film footage) has been modernised  with new systems.
• There is a strong emphasis on air-portable equipment which is a key reason why the Russians have been focussing on capturing airfields in the Ukraine.

Navy

• The Navy appears to have undergone the most transformation despite a shipbuilding industry that actually performs well below its declared objectives. Sanctions has played an important role in limiting Russia's ship building industry to deliver effective transformation in naval assets.
• The two most significant changes are first, the deployment of the 3M14 Kalibr long-range precision land attack cruise missile on both surface vessels and submarines in the fleet. Land based infrastructure is vulnerable to this form of weapon launched from the sea. Second, the deployment of vessels such as the Karakut corvettes and improved Kilo submarines has strengthened Russian fleet assets with the capability to use Kalibr.  

Air force/Aerospace

• Known for poor performance in Georgia, this part of the Russian Armed Forces has been a focus for improvement. The single role fighter aircraft ( Su-27 Flanker and MiG-29 Fulcrum) have been replaced by multi-role fighter ground attack aircraft such as the Su-35S Flanker M, Su-30SM Flanker H and the SU-34 Fulback. 
• Air-to air missiles (or AAMs) are being upgraded with improved short, medium and long range AAMs being deployed that can be launched from bomber aircraft. The emphasis is on stand-off, long-range land attack missiles.
• Tactical air-to-surface missiles mainly with Soviet era designs remain a very slow process with newer designs yet to be deployed in any measurable number.

The Ukraine in comparison has little to no capability in upgrading its weapon systems, developing and/or deploying new ones to provide counterpoints to the Russian inventory.

The United States and Australia - similarities and differences on key issues

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As commentators on the politics of the United States have observed, former president Donald Trump continues to exercise considerable influence on the Republican Party (aka the Grand Old Party or GOP) both in terms of policy and the success of potential candidates for elections. His influence also extends to a large proportion of the US public who supported his MAGA (Make America Great Again) slogan. Research by the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney published under the title of 'Public Opinion in the Age of Trump' remains relevant due to the polarisation of politics and opinion in the United States.

Using a survey sample size of 1,800 in the United States and 1,820 in Australia, relevant results found these similarities and differences (% shown are in agreement with the statements) -

  

Similarities	US	Australia
Hard work drives success	58 %	56 %
America/Australia is a friend/ally	97 %	94 %
Climate change is occuring	66 %	75 %
Differences
Minimum wage should be high enough so that no family with a full-time worker falls below official poverty line	57 %	84 %
The unemployed should have a decent standard of living	40 %	61 %
America/Australia is too economically dependent on China	51 %	63 %
Women should have access to abortion as a personal choice	42 %	58 %
Gun controls should be stricter, despite the fact its already much more difficult to obtain a gun in Australian than the US	53 %	66 %

Global warming and the Earth's axis

                                                                                            Shutterstock

 

Most people would be aware that the Earth's rotational axis is not steady but tends to wobble as the planet is not a perfect unchanging sphere. Due to plate tectonics, erosion, weather masses moving around the surface, large ice masses weighting down sections of land, the poles actually move and this drift averages around 6 centimetres a year. This movement for example drew the North Pole towards Labrador in a Southerly direction.  For compass users, this situation will be familiar due to the adjustment calculation needed for grid to magnetic measurement to compensate for the drift when navigating using maps.

However in 2005 this drift suddenly altered and shifted to an Easterly direction and accelerated corresponding to an increase in the melt occuring in Greenland and Antarctica. Researchers at the University of Texas in Austin found using the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites that around 600 gigatonnes of mass was being lost each year by the large glaciers in Greenland, Antarctica and the mountain glaciers. This mount of water being released from the glaciers into the oceans accounted for 90 % of the polar drift since 2005.  In short the planet's tilt was unexpectedly altered due to the effect of climate change.

Ventilation is a key control for limiting transmission of COVID-19

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Since March 2021 when the World Health Organisation (WHO)  finally accepted that COVID-19 is an airborne transmitted virus, a stronger focus on ventilation has led to a greater emphasis on air quality, circulation and replacement. While the virus is transported across room spaces in small particles, it can build-up in density in poorly ventilated spaces. But what is the best protection against virus laden aerosols ? How frequently should air in a room space be replaced ?

The basic measure for what constitutes good air is the number of replacements made in an hour and the level of carbon dioxide present (that represents the concentration of exhaled air in a room that comes from other people - and commensurately, the risk of COVID-19).

  

New Scientist (August 2021) published some relevant data from various selected environments around London with surprising results as the chosen locations have an wider application than only that large city in the UK. While the key measure for air quality is the amount of CO2  present representing the air breathed out by other people, it is also dependent on there being no other source such as a natural gas cooker or heater. Outdoor air has a concentration of around 410 parts per million (ppm) and below 800 ppm is generally regarded as well ventilated and above 1500 ppm is regarded as critical to exit.

Space, details and highest reading

• Outdoors:  413 ppm

• Private car, two people, windows closed: 1,740 ppm
• Private car, two people, windows open:  413 ppm
• Private car, two people, non recirculating ventilation on: 413 ppm  
• Private car, two people recirculating air con on: 1,589 ppm 

• Bus, lower deck, full doors opening at stops: 724 ppm
• London train tube: platform between trains: 783 ppm
• London train tube full carriage standing room only: 1,076 ppm

• Supermarket, large, empty: 413 ppm
• Supermarket, small, busy: 1,100 ppm

• Restaurant, busy by open door: 739 ppm
• Pub, main bar, full, doors and windows open: 420 ppm

Indoor air quality standards essentially fail to protect from airborne pathogens such as viruses and bacteria leading to a urgent needs for new building and ventilation designs to mitigate airborne risks.